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25 Feb 2026, 11:33
Metaplanet: Bet On Bitcoin And The mNAV
Summary From the highest of highs, Metaplanet has fallen to record lows in the space of months. A closer look at the fundamentals, however, points to more than a few silver linings. At current price levels, Metaplanet offers many ways to win. In its current form, Japan-based Metaplanet ( MTPLF ) is the world’s #4 Bitcoin-focused treasury company (by holdings). Metaplanet Metaplanet is primarily listed in Tokyo, but also investable in the US via its over-the-counter MTPLF ticker and a recently launched depositary receipt ( MPJPY ). The company operates via the following units: 1) the main Bitcoin treasury operations, which aims to grow its holdings of bitcoin (the cryptocurrency) over time, 2) ancillary media (Bitcoin Magazine Japan) and hospitality businesses (Bitcoin Hotel). Metaplanet, like its key US peer, Strategy ( MSTR ), became one of the hottest stocks in Japan when its first announced its Bitcoin treasury pivot in April 2024. Metaplanet won both ways – 1) by riding the rise and rise of bitcoin’s price over the period and 2) by seeing its all-important market-to-net asset value (also mNAV), the premium/discount at which Metaplanet stock is priced relative to its underlying bitcoin holdings, rise well above parity. The mNAV metric got so overheated, in fact, that Metaplanet hit highs of >10x in early 2025 and >20x in 2024. Metaplanet In recent months, however, Metaplanet has lost both ways instead – 1) through a steep drawdown in bitcoin prices and 2) through a compressing mNAV, now at lows just above 1x. The losses have been so bad that CEO Simon Gerovich, an ex-Goldman Sachs ( GS ) banker turned hotelier turned bitcoin “hodler”, has been in full damage control mode. On the heels of a tough quarter, which saw the company post record unrealized losses, he noted “this has not been an easy period. Bitcoin is volatile and anyone holding it needs to accept that truth”. Metaplanet So, with the stock down over 80% from prior highs, what now? In this article, I dissect the Metaplanet financing model, as well as the unique advantages it enjoys from being based in Japan. Also, why the current mNAV, despite still being at a slight premium, actually makes for a compelling entry point. Data by YCharts Metaplanet’s Financing Flywheel Can Still Turn Broadly speaking, the “what” of the Metaplanet model is a familiar one. Its manifesto, for instance, highlights financial goals like “grow bitcoin holdings continually and strategically”, “optimize BTC Yield”, and “outperform bitcoin over the long term” – all very much in line with its US counterparts. Where Metaplanet sets itself apart, though, is in “how” it goes about growing its bitcoin stash. a) Rolling Issuance – Only for Bull Markets The standard way treasury companies generate “yield” on their bitcoin holdings is via at-the-market (or ATM) equity facilities, where they gradually sell common stock into the existing market. This isn’t allowed in Japan, so to get around this, Metaplanet mimics a rolling ATM by issuing “moving strike warrants” – the core financing strategy behind its two major accumulation plans, the 21 Million Plan (+210m shares) and the 2025-2027 Plan (+555m shares). For context, these are essentially options with a dynamic strike price based on the previous day’s close. When the equity appreciates, holders, namely the Gerovich-linked EVO Fund, exercise their warrants, convert into equity, and make the difference (today’s higher share price - the lower strike price). Metaplanet, on the other hand, deploys the funds raised into Bitcoin. The net result for shareholders is dilution - but only on the way up. The catch is that this only works under two conditions, both of which only apply in bull markets. Firstly, you need shares to trade higher; otherwise, the warrants stay out-of-the-money, EVO doesn't exercise, and Metaplanet cannot deploy. Secondly, you need an mNAV >1 for the dilution to make sense; an mNAV selling bitcoin to buy stock the more accretive option. Both conditions break in a bear market and as a result, the conveyor belt has slowed to a halt in recent months. Metaplanet Now, if you combine the fact that moving strike warrants only allow Metaplanet to raise money in bull markets and that management doesn’t time its BTC purchases, you get an unfavorable dynamic where the company is set up to buy “high”. Hence, the unfavorable cost basis today. Metaplanet b) Preferreds – A Fundraising Option for Bear Markets The good news is that Metaplanet has other financing tools at its disposal in a bear market. While moving strike warrants were the centerpiece of its “Phase 1” funding strategy, the company has also, more recently, tapped into perpetual preferred stock offerings in “Phase 2” – borrowing from Strategy’s Strife ( STRF )/Stretch ( STRC ) playbook. Metaplanet Specifically, Metaplanet taps into two classes of preferreds – 1) Class A Metaplanet Adjustable Rate Security (or “MARS”) and 2) Class B Metaplanet Convertible for Return + Yield (or “MERCURY”). MARS is non-convertible and comes with an adjustable dividend rate of 1-8%. Meanwhile, MERCURY is convertible (if shares trade 130% above the conversion price of JPY1000/share) and comes with a fixed 4.9% dividend. In the Metaplanet capital structure, MARS sits above MERCURY and common shares. Metaplanet Now, why would investors only demand ~5% for preferreds backed by “risky” bitcoin collateral when comparable instruments like STRF yield ~10%? Well, the cost of capital backdrop is very different in Japan, where you have some of the lowest interest rates in the world (benchmark at 0.75%), keeping bond (2.2% for the ten-year JGB) and savings ( Metaplanet So far things have played out well enough, with take up for MERCURY (see graphic below) fairly robust at 23.6m or JPY21.2bn (via third-party allotment) - even through a bitcoin bear market. That bodes well for MARS, the non-convertible fixed ~5% dividend instrument and, more importantly, the less dilutive issuance for common shareholders. Metaplanet Can senior management, a group of ex-GS bankers, successfully sell the MARS/MERCURY case to investors? I think it’s a “yes” long-term, based on STRC/STRF take up, though drumming up near-term demand amid all the pessimism will be trickier. Either way, Metaplanet’s depressed ~1x mNAV means the market is voting “no”. Therefore, any upside surprise on preferred issuance, key to getting BTC yield going again, could re-rate the stock quite significantly. Metaplanet c) Bitcoin Income – A Path to Unlocking Funding Capacity One of the biggest pushbacks against the treasury company model is that these companies depend on external financing to fund their bitcoin purchases and thus, their “BTC yield” isn’t sustainable to begin with. How then can Metaplanet support consistent yield payouts (preferreds) or repayment obligations (debt) on a non-yield generating asset like bitcoin? The answer is that while bitcoin itself doesn’t produce cash flow, it has unique properties that can be monetized in ways traditional assets cannot. One such property is bitcoin’s volatility, which Metaplanet inherits and sometimes amplifies, making it one of the most volatile names in Japan. Metaplanet Metaplanet can, in turn, monetize this volatility by writing options against itself and collecting a higher than usual premium. Remember that elevated volatility, a key input in options pricing, also increases the probability these options end up "in-the-money” and by extension, underpins a higher premium. Of course this isn’t a risk-free strategy, as the company does have to deliver bitcoin at the agreed strike price. In Metaplanet’s case, this isn’t as much of an issue since it already holds the bitcoin and is quite comfortable acquiring more. Key, though, is the big upfront premium, which keeps the P&L odds tipped heavily in its favor over a long enough timeline. Per its Q4 FY25 report, premium income, housed under the “Bitcoin Income Business” segment, has already ramped up to JPY 4.3bn of quarterly revenue. This run rate is already above the JPY15.6bn income guidance for next year, so as more bitcoin collateral gets freed up for options, there’s a good chance Metaplanet surprises to the upside here. More income also means more capacity to fund preferred dividends, so expect a much bigger appetite for MARS/MERCURY if management executes. Metaplanet Still Riding the Tax Tailwind As I touched on previously, Japan offers a combination of structurally low interest rates and currency weakness you don’t find anywhere else in the world. But there’s another reason a Japanese bitcoin treasury company makes so much sense - taxes. On the one hand, Japan imposes capital gains taxes at a ~20% rate, which applies to equity gains. On the other, you have bitcoin gains, which fall under “miscellaneous income” and thus, can incur taxes of up to 55% (45% plus 10% inhabitant tax) with no tax loss offset. That’s a near thirty-five-point differential at the top end. PWC Moreso if Japanese investors buy stocks through a zero-tax Nippon Individual Savings Account (or NISA), which post-2024 reforms, come with an “unlimited” tax exemption period. Government policy has generally been to incentivize equity investments over low-yielding savings accounts, so this delta, worth up to fifty-five points for a NISA account, is likely here to stay under a Takaichi government as well. NISA In other words, a unique tax arbitrage available to no other bitcoin treasury company. And one that supports a wider mNAV than Metaplanet commands today, in my view. Especially when you also consider the lack of ETF and meaningful treasury company alternatives available in Japan . Bitcointreasuries Wrapping Up Metaplanet has historically traded at much higher mNAVs than any other bitcoin treasury company in the world. That’s no longer true today, despite the fact that the same factors underpinning prior mNAV highs are still very much intact. Those willing to look through the near-term pessimism can therefore win both ways with Metaplanet here – 1) from a bitcoin price rebound and 2) from an expanding mNAV. Key catalysts include progress on ramping up the recurring options income base, take up on the company’s new prefs, as well as prospective index updates after the recent FTSE Japan and All-World mid-cap upgrades. Key risks, on the other hand, include continued bearish sentiment on bitcoin prices, which affects Metaplanet’s ability to fundraise, competition from Japan-based treasury companies, as well as bitcoin-related tax reform.
25 Feb 2026, 11:32
Phemex Unveils AI Bot, Marking A Product Milestone of Its AI-Native Revolution
BitcoinWorld Phemex Unveils AI Bot, Marking A Product Milestone of Its AI-Native Revolution APIA, Samoa, Feb. 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Phemex , a user-first crypto exchange, unveiled the AI Bot , a tactical milestone of the Phemex AI-Native Revolution, following its landmark transition into an AI-native organization. This launch evolves artificial intelligence from a strategic vision into a high-performance “Intelligent Trading Partner,” shifting the industry paradigm from emotional manual execution to a disciplined “Human + AI Collaboration” model for its 10 million users worldwide. Earlier this year, Phemex introduced its AI-Native Initiative, committing to integrate artificial intelligence across internal operations and external product architecture. The launch of AI Bot serves as a live demonstration of that strategy in practice, moving beyond conceptual transformation into user-facing applications. Utilizing advanced machine learning to analyze millions of data points in real-time, the Phemex AI Bot automates complex quantitative strategies across Futures Grid, Spot Grid, and Martingale systems. Engineered with a “Risk-Aware Intelligence” , the engine prioritizes capital preservation by dynamically adjusting leverage and parameters based on historical volatility. This ensures that intelligence remains a tool for resilience, allowing traders to gain significant leverage from AI rather than losing their competitive edge to it. To catalyze this era of intelligent trading, Phemex has initiated the AI Bot Carnival , a $1,000,000+ trading feast. The initiative features a 100% Loss Protection Program for newcomers to ensure a zero-barrier entry into quantitative trading, alongside tiered volume rewards up to 5,000 USDT and multi-bot incentives designed to encourage systematic, diversified portfolio management. “Phemex AI Bot is solid proof that our AI-Native strategy is not theoretical — it is operational,” said Federico Variola , CEO of Phemex. “We are not experimenting with AI at the margins. We are actively building an exchange where intelligent systems are embedded into how products function. This launch is an early but concrete step, and we will continue executing this long-term strategy.” With AI Bot now live, Phemex advances its roadmap toward a fully AI-native exchange model where intelligence is integrated at the infrastructure level and progressively embedded into the trading experience. About Phemex Founded in 2019, Phemex is a user-first crypto exchange trusted by over 10 million traders worldwide. The platform offers spot and derivatives trading, copy trading, and wealth management products designed to prioritize user experience, transparency, and innovation. With a forward-thinking approach and a commitment to user empowerment, Phemex delivers reliable tools, inclusive access, and evolving opportunities for traders at every level to grow and succeed. For more information, please visit: https://phemex.com/ This post Phemex Unveils AI Bot, Marking A Product Milestone of Its AI-Native Revolution first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
25 Feb 2026, 11:30
Dark Defender to XRP Holders: 2026 Will be a Milestone In Our Lives
Crypto analyst Dark Defender (@DefendDark) recently posted a strong message for the XRP community. He highlighted the dedication of the XRP Army and emphasized the significance of 2026, stating, “2026 is our year; it will be a milestone in our lives.” He also encouraged supporters to be visible and active, saying, “Just show people we are alive.” His post shows the confidence shared by many in the community despite recent market fluctuations . XRPArmy might be full of the craziest ones, but remember, they make history while the rest just think. 2026 is our year; it will be a milestone in our lives. Just show people we are alive. — Dark Defender (@DefendDark) February 23, 2026 Current Market Trends and Bullish Forecasts XRP began 2026 with notable gains , but the price has since retraced. At present, XRP trades at $1.32, showing some bearish signs. While the asset has experienced volatility, the overall sentiment among analysts remains bullish. Market watchers point to potential growth in the coming weeks, emphasizing that current levels could set the stage for a strong rally. CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020), a prominent analyst, recently projected that XRP could reach $4 by March 2. This is not the final target, as he also anticipates that the asset may climb to $9 by March 11 . This forecast is part of a broader set of optimistic predictions for the token. Other analysts have suggested even higher targets, indicating potential double-digit prices for XRP later in 2026. These projections support Dark Defender’s expression that 2026 is a milestone year for the XRP community. Importance of Community Engagement Dark Defender’s comments highlight XRP Army’s role in the market. He highlighted the importance of action over observation, noting that while some remain passive, the XRP community actively participates and contributes to the network’s visibility. The XRP Army has been praised multiple times for its prominent role in keeping XRP relevant. Dark Defender expects this engagement to continue as XRP explodes in 2026. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Outlook for XRP The consistency of bullish predictions shows the optimism surrounding XRP in 2026. Projections ranging from $4 to potentially double-digit prices reinforce the perspective that the token could see substantial appreciation. The current combination of extended consolidation , community excitement, and bullish forecasts presents an interesting scenario for XRP. Current trading levels do not diminish the bullish outlook, as multiple forecasts point to higher targets in the coming months. Periods of price consolidation often precede renewed momentum. With multiple forecasts predicting substantial gains in 2026, XRP may be positioned for accelerated growth if market conditions align. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on X , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Dark Defender to XRP Holders: 2026 Will be a Milestone In Our Lives appeared first on Times Tabloid .
25 Feb 2026, 11:25
One of longest mining capitulations nears end, signaling potential BTC price bottom
Hash Ribbon recovery and sub production pricing suggest the worst of the bitcoin drawdown may have passed.
25 Feb 2026, 11:20
Bitcoin Climbs Past $66,000 After Trump Stresses Economic Recovery
Bitcoin surged above $66,000, boosted by Trump’s comments on economic recovery. Technical signals and macro risks keep markets cautious, with new support at $64,500. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Climbs Past $66,000 After Trump Stresses Economic Recovery The post Bitcoin Climbs Past $66,000 After Trump Stresses Economic Recovery appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .
25 Feb 2026, 11:20
AUD/USD Breakout: Dramatic Extension Following CPI Surprise – Societe Generale Analysis
BitcoinWorld AUD/USD Breakout: Dramatic Extension Following CPI Surprise – Societe Generale Analysis Global forex markets witnessed significant volatility on Thursday as the AUD/USD currency pair extended its breakout following unexpected Australian CPI data, with Societe Generale analysts providing crucial technical and fundamental insights into the ongoing movement. The Australian dollar surged against its US counterpart, reaching levels not seen in several months, as inflation figures surprised economists and traders alike. This development marks a pivotal moment for currency traders and economic observers monitoring Pacific Rim economies. AUD/USD Breakout Extends with CPI Data Surprise Australian Bureau of Statistics released quarterly Consumer Price Index data showing 1.2% growth against consensus expectations of 0.8%. Consequently, the Australian dollar immediately gained approximately 1.5% against the US dollar within the first trading hour. Market participants reacted strongly to the inflation surprise, which suggested persistent price pressures in the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia now faces renewed scrutiny regarding its monetary policy trajectory. Societe Generale’s forex research team identified key technical levels breached during the session. Specifically, the currency pair broke through the 0.6700 resistance level that had contained price action for the previous six weeks. Furthermore, trading volume surged to 150% of the 30-day average, confirming institutional participation in the move. The breakout extended through the Asian and European trading sessions, demonstrating sustained momentum. Technical Analysis and Chart Patterns Societe Generale’s technical analysts highlighted several important chart developments. First, the AUD/USD pair completed a bullish ascending triangle pattern that had been forming since early January. Second, moving average convergences showed bullish alignment across multiple timeframes. Third, momentum indicators including the Relative Strength Index entered overbought territory but maintained upward trajectory. Key Technical Levels and Support Zones The analysis identified several critical price levels for traders to monitor. Resistance now appears at the 0.6820 level, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November decline. Support has established at the previous resistance-turned-support level of 0.6700. Additionally, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged to provide dynamic support around 0.6650. Key AUD/USD Technical Levels Level Type Significance 0.6820 Resistance 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.6700 Support Previous resistance level 0.6650 Support Moving average convergence zone 0.6580 Support Previous swing low Fundamental Drivers Behind the Movement Several fundamental factors contributed to the AUD/USD breakout extension. The unexpected CPI strength suggested several economic developments. First, domestic consumption remained robust despite previous interest rate increases. Second, services inflation proved particularly sticky, declining more slowly than goods inflation. Third, housing costs continued their upward trajectory, contributing significantly to the overall index. Global market conditions also supported the Australian dollar’s appreciation. Specifically, commodity prices remained elevated, benefiting Australia’s export-heavy economy. Iron ore prices maintained levels above $120 per ton, while copper and gold also showed strength. Additionally, risk sentiment improved in Asian markets following positive Chinese manufacturing data released earlier in the week. Central Bank Policy Implications The CPI surprise has important implications for monetary policy. Reserve Bank of Australia officials now face increased pressure to maintain or potentially increase interest rates. Market-implied probability of a rate hike at the next meeting jumped from 15% to 42% following the data release. Furthermore, expectations for rate cuts in 2025 diminished significantly, with the timeline extending further into the future. Comparatively, US Federal Reserve policy remains in focus. Recent Federal Open Market Committee minutes indicated continued caution regarding inflation. Consequently, the interest rate differential between Australia and the United States may narrow less quickly than previously anticipated. This dynamic provides fundamental support for Australian dollar strength against its US counterpart. Market Impact and Trading Volume Analysis Trading activity surrounding the AUD/USD breakout showed distinctive patterns. Institutional flows dominated the initial move, with bank trading desks reporting elevated client activity. Retail participation increased during the European session as the breakout gained technical confirmation. Options market activity surged, particularly in call options betting on further Australian dollar appreciation. Cross-currency effects emerged across related pairs. The AUD/JPY pair showed correlated strength, gaining approximately 1.8% on the session. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair followed with a more modest 0.9% gain, reflecting Australia’s stronger inflation surprise compared to New Zealand’s more moderate data. These inter-market relationships confirmed the Australian dollar’s broad-based strength. Institutional flows dominated initial breakout phase Options activity surged in call options Cross-currency correlations confirmed broad AUD strength Trading volume reached 150% of 30-day average Historical Context and Previous Breakouts The current AUD/USD breakout represents the most significant move since November’s volatility. Historical analysis reveals important patterns. Previous CPI-driven breakouts in 2023 produced average gains of 2.8% over two-week periods. Additionally, breakouts occurring during Asian trading hours showed greater sustainability than those beginning in other sessions. Seasonal factors may influence the current move. February historically shows Australian dollar strength against the US dollar, with an average gain of 1.2% over the past decade. This pattern aligns with Australia’s commodity export cycle and agricultural production schedules. The current breakout exceeds historical averages, suggesting potentially stronger fundamental drivers. Risk Factors and Potential Reversals Several risk factors could challenge the breakout’s continuation. First, upcoming US employment data may strengthen the US dollar if results exceed expectations. Second, Chinese economic data releases could impact commodity prices and, consequently, Australian dollar valuation. Third, technical indicators approaching overbought conditions suggest potential near-term consolidation. Market positioning data reveals potential headwinds. Speculative positioning in Australian dollar futures reached net long levels not seen since September. Extreme positioning often precedes corrective moves as traders take profits. However, the fundamental CPI surprise may justify extended positioning if inflation proves persistent. Expert Analysis and Economic Forecasts Societe Generale economists provided detailed analysis following the data release. Their research team emphasized several key points. First, services inflation requires monitoring as it represents 60% of the CPI basket. Second, wage growth data due next month will provide crucial confirmation of inflationary pressures. Third, business investment intentions may influence future inflation trajectories. Other financial institutions adjusted forecasts following the CPI surprise. Three major Australian banks revised their AUD/USD year-end targets upward by an average of 2.5%. International investment banks similarly adjusted projections, with several noting increased conviction in Australian dollar outperformance among G10 currencies. These coordinated forecast revisions suggest consensus building around the currency’s strength. Conclusion The AUD/USD breakout extension following the CPI surprise demonstrates the powerful interaction between economic data and currency markets. Societe Generale’s analysis provides crucial insights into both technical and fundamental aspects of this significant move. Market participants must now monitor several key factors including upcoming economic releases, central bank communications, and technical support levels. The Australian dollar’s trajectory will likely influence broader forex market dynamics in coming weeks, particularly among commodity-linked currencies. FAQs Q1: What caused the AUD/USD breakout? The breakout resulted primarily from stronger-than-expected Australian CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, which showed 1.2% quarterly growth against 0.8% expectations, suggesting persistent inflation pressures. Q2: How significant was the CPI surprise? The 0.4 percentage point exceedance of consensus expectations represents the largest CPI surprise in 18 months, triggering substantial market repositioning. Q3: What technical levels are important now? Key levels include resistance at 0.6820 (Fibonacci level), support at 0.6700 (previous resistance), and moving average support around 0.6650. Q4: How does this affect RBA policy? The CPI surprise increases pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain or potentially raise interest rates, with market-implied hike probability jumping from 15% to 42%. Q5: What are the main risks to continued AUD strength? Risks include stronger US economic data, weaker Chinese demand affecting commodities, technical overbought conditions, and extreme speculative positioning. This post AUD/USD Breakout: Dramatic Extension Following CPI Surprise – Societe Generale Analysis first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
