hodler

24 Feb 2026, 22:00

Ethereum Market Dynamics Stay Bearish As On-Chain Data Points To Capitulation

Ethereum’s price was rocked by the market drawdown on Monday, causing it to lose the $1,900 support level once again, which has triggered speculations about its near-term market outlook. Following the pullback, investors’ sentiment is shifting towards a more cautious state, keeping its market dynamics firmly bearish. Bearish Momentum Persists in The Ethereum Market Just as the broader cryptocurrency environment has flipped highly bearish, Ethereum market dynamics remain strongly tilted to the downside. Some of the indications of this scenario include signs of capitulation across the leading altcoin and network . Joao Wedson, an author and the founder of on-chain data analytics platform Alphractal, has shed light on ETH’s current market state after examining multiple metrics. Key indications, such as realized/unrealized losses and declining demand metrics, point to an increasing number of investors pulling out of positions due to pressure. Data from Alpha AI shows that there is an increase in long positions while the Coinbase Premium Index is demonstrating a decline. The increase in leveraged longs indicates that traders are wagering that recent weakness will give way to upward momentum and are setting up for a rebound. At the same time, on-chain data is flashing signs of capitulation. Current flows indicate defensive behavior from investors and waning conviction rather than new accumulation . Wedson also underlined other key areas and metrics that reinforce this idea of bearish market dynamics for ETH. The first metric is the Whale vs Retail Delta, which is now showing that the retail investors are positioning heavily on the long side. The Liquidation Level Heatmap is reflecting high leverage in the system. ETH’s Open Interest (OI) has been declining, with active addresses persistently vanishing. On-chain volume is flashing caution as active drops, and the NUPL is currently exhibiting capitulation signals. Given these bearish signals, Wedson highlighted that the next drop could spur the formation of a base with strong probability. This implies that Ethereum might start its accumulation phase in the short term. A Move Back To Lower Bollinger Bands In the current market state, Ethereum’s price appears to be moving in the same direction as Bitcoin’s price . According to market analyst and investor Cantonese Cat, both cryptocurrency assets just hit their lower Bollinger Bands as they contract as support. However, the direction has not yet been determined for the Bollinger Band squeeze. As a result, Cantonese Cat noted that bulls may want more sideways to turn the 20-day SMA flatter, which would present a better chance to flip it as support. Meanwhile, the bears would be looking for more follow-through of the current price action and for a lower low occurring soon, but it has not yet happened. At the time of writing, the ETH price was trading at $1,826 after dropping by over 3% in the last 24 hours. Despite the waning price action, its trading volume has turned bullish again, rising by more than 29% within the same period.

24 Feb 2026, 22:00

Australia CPI Reveals Stubborn Inflation Crisis, Forcing Prolonged Hawkish RBA Stance

BitcoinWorld Australia CPI Reveals Stubborn Inflation Crisis, Forcing Prolonged Hawkish RBA Stance SYDNEY, Australia – January 2025 – Australia’s latest Consumer Price Index data confirms what economists feared: inflation remains stubbornly entrenched across the economy. The December quarter figures reveal persistent price pressures that will likely force the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance well into 2025. This development comes amid global economic uncertainty and domestic structural challenges that complicate the inflation fight. Australia CPI Data Reveals Persistent Inflation Pressures The Australian Bureau of Statistics released December quarter CPI figures showing annual inflation at 4.2%, significantly above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Moreover, the trimmed mean measure – which excludes volatile items – remained elevated at 3.8%. These numbers demonstrate that inflation has become embedded in the Australian economy despite thirteen interest rate hikes since May 2022. Service sector inflation, particularly in housing, education, and healthcare, continues to drive overall price increases. The quarterly increase of 1.2% exceeded market expectations of 0.9%, surprising analysts who anticipated faster disinflation. Several key categories show particularly stubborn inflation. Housing costs increased 7.8% annually, reflecting continued rental market pressures and construction material costs. Education services rose 6.2%, while insurance and financial services jumped 8.1%. Food prices, though moderating from previous peaks, still increased 4.5% year-over-year. These persistent increases across diverse sectors suggest broad-based inflationary pressures rather than temporary supply shocks. The data indicates that Australia’s inflation problem has transitioned from imported to domestically generated. RBA’s Hawkish Stance Receives Critical Support The Reserve Bank of Australia now faces mounting evidence supporting its cautious approach to monetary policy. Governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly emphasized the need to avoid premature policy easing that could reignite inflation expectations. The latest CPI data validates this position, showing that underlying inflation remains well above target. Consequently, market expectations have shifted dramatically, with most analysts now predicting no rate cuts until late 2025 at the earliest. Some economists even suggest the possibility of additional tightening if inflation proves more persistent than expected. Historical context illuminates the current policy challenge. Australia’s inflation peaked at 7.8% in December 2022, the highest level since 1990. While significant progress has occurred, the “last mile” of disinflation has proven particularly difficult. International comparisons reveal Australia’s inflation persistence exceeds that of many developed economies. For instance, the United States achieved 3.4% inflation by December 2024, while Canada reached 3.1%. Australia’s relatively higher inflation reflects unique domestic factors including tight labor markets, strong services demand, and structural housing shortages. Expert Analysis of Economic Impacts Leading economists emphasize the broader implications of persistent inflation. Dr. Sarah Hunter, Chief Economist at the RBA, recently noted that services inflation typically responds more slowly to monetary policy than goods inflation. This structural reality explains why Australia’s disinflation process has stalled despite aggressive rate hikes. Meanwhile, Professor Warwick McKibbin from the Australian National University highlights the role of fiscal policy in complementing monetary tightening. He argues that without coordinated fiscal restraint, the RBA faces an uphill battle against entrenched inflation expectations. The business community expresses growing concern about prolonged high interest rates. Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry CEO Andrew McKellar warns that small businesses face increasing pressure from both elevated borrowing costs and softening consumer demand. However, he acknowledges that controlling inflation remains the priority for sustainable economic growth. The Australian Council of Trade Unions emphasizes the need for wage growth to keep pace with living costs, creating potential for a wage-price spiral that concerns policymakers. Global Context and Domestic Structural Factors Australia’s inflation challenge occurs within a complex global environment. Geopolitical tensions continue disrupting supply chains, while climate-related events affect agricultural production and energy markets. The transition to renewable energy creates additional cost pressures in the short term. Domestically, population growth exceeding housing supply exacerbates rental inflation, while an aging population increases healthcare costs. These structural factors suggest that returning to the RBA’s target band may require accepting slightly higher inflation than historical averages. The labor market presents another critical dimension. Unemployment remains near historic lows at 4.1%, creating upward pressure on wages. The Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review typically considers CPI data when determining minimum wage increases, creating potential feedback loops. Productivity growth has stagnated in recent years, further complicating the inflation outlook. Without productivity improvements, wage increases necessarily translate into higher unit labor costs and inflationary pressures. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms The RBA employs multiple channels to influence inflation through monetary policy. Interest rate changes affect: Consumption and investment spending through higher borrowing costs Exchange rates that influence import prices Wealth effects via asset price adjustments Inflation expectations that become self-fulfilling Recent research suggests these transmission mechanisms have weakened due to high household savings buffers and fixed-rate mortgage structures. Many Australian households locked in low fixed rates during the pandemic, delaying the impact of rate hikes. As these mortgages reset to higher variable rates throughout 2025, monetary policy will gain additional traction. This delayed effect explains why the RBA maintains its hawkish stance despite apparent policy impotence in the short term. Sectoral Analysis of Price Pressures Different economic sectors exhibit varying inflation dynamics. The table below illustrates key sectoral contributions to overall inflation: Sector Annual Inflation Primary Drivers Housing 7.8% Rents, construction costs, utilities Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 4.5% Agricultural inputs, transport, packaging Insurance & Financial Services 8.1% Climate risk, regulatory costs Education 6.2% Staff costs, infrastructure investment Healthcare 5.4% Aging population, technology costs Services inflation consistently exceeds goods inflation, reflecting labor-intensive production with limited productivity gains. This structural reality suggests that returning to 2-3% inflation requires either significant economic slowdown or productivity breakthroughs. The RBA must balance these competing objectives while maintaining financial stability and supporting employment. This delicate balancing act explains the central bank’s cautious communication and data-dependent approach. Conclusion Australia’s CPI data confirms that inflation remains stubbornly persistent, supporting the RBA’s hawkish monetary policy stance. The December quarter figures reveal broad-based price pressures, particularly in services sectors, that will likely require maintained high interest rates throughout 2025. While significant progress has occurred since inflation peaked in 2022, the final phase of disinflation presents unique challenges. Structural factors including housing shortages, demographic shifts, and productivity stagnation complicate the inflation fight. The Australia CPI data therefore serves as a critical indicator for policymakers, businesses, and households navigating an uncertain economic landscape. Future monetary policy decisions will depend heavily on upcoming inflation prints, employment figures, and global economic developments. FAQs Q1: What does “sticky inflation” mean in the Australian context? Sticky inflation refers to persistent price increases that resist downward pressure from monetary policy. In Australia, this particularly affects services like housing, healthcare, and education where supply constraints and structural factors maintain upward price pressure. Q2: How does Australia’s inflation compare to other developed economies? Australia’s inflation remains higher than many comparable economies. While the US reached 3.4% and Canada 3.1% by December 2024, Australia recorded 4.2% annual inflation, reflecting stronger domestic price pressures particularly in services and housing. Q3: What is the RBA’s current official cash rate and how has it changed? The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the official cash rate from 0.10% in April 2022 to 4.35% currently. These thirteen consecutive hikes represent the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades, aimed at combating post-pandemic inflation. Q4: How does persistent inflation affect Australian households? Persistent inflation erodes purchasing power, particularly impacting low-income households spending higher proportions on essentials. High interest rates increase mortgage payments, while rents continue rising due to housing shortages, creating financial stress across multiple dimensions. Q5: When might the RBA consider cutting interest rates? Most economists now expect rate cuts no earlier than late 2025, contingent on sustained progress toward the 2-3% inflation target. The RBA has emphasized the need for convincing evidence that inflation is returning to target before considering policy easing. This post Australia CPI Reveals Stubborn Inflation Crisis, Forcing Prolonged Hawkish RBA Stance first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 21:56

Terraform Labs Sues Jane Street for Alleged Insider Trading Prior to Terra-Luna Collapse: Report

Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator has filed a lawsuit against Jane Street, alleging the company used insider information to profit from and accelerate the collapse of Terra-Luna. The lawsuit claims that these trades came at the expense of investors and creditors who lost billions in the crash. Jane Street Denies Accusations A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report reveals that Todd Snyder, the court-appointed plan administrator overseeing Terraform’s wind-down, is seeking damages from Jane Street, its co-founder Robert Granieri, and employees Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang. In a complaint filed in a Manhattan federal court on Monday, Snyder alleges that the trading firm obtained material nonpublic information from insiders and used it to trade ahead of the market, speeding up the company’s downfall. “Jane Street abused market relationships to rig the market in its favor during one of the most consequential events in crypto history,” wrote the administrator in a statement. The company first signed on to trade directly with Terraform in late 2018, but its involvement in the project’s tokens did not intensify until February 2022. The lawsuit claims that Pratt, a former intern at the crypto company who later joined the trading firm, reconnected with his previous colleagues and created a private group chat called “Bryce’s Secret” to collect insider information. He is also accused of coordinating email introductions between the company’s head of business development and the firm’s DeFi team. The complaint claims that these communications were then used to obtain confidential details and inform highly profitable trades. Meanwhile, Jane Street has rejected the allegations, calling the lawsuit “a desperate attempt to extract money” and insisting that Terraform’s losses were the result of a multibillion-dollar fraud by its management. The firm added that it will defend itself “vigorously against these baseless, opportunistic claims.” Insider Trades Linked to Terraform Collapse The lawsuit highlights a May 7, 2022, incident in which the crypto platform moved 150 million TerraUSD out of the Curve3pool without notifying the market. Less than ten minutes later, a digital wallet reportedly connected to Jane Street withdrew 85 million TerraUSD from the same pool. However, Do Kwon, its founder, said the withdrawal was meant to move TerraUSD to a new liquidity pool for stablecoins. Two days later, as the digital asset began losing its dollar peg, Pratt allegedly set up a group message with Kwon, Huang, and firm representatives to discuss potential bids on Luna as the company continued to reap more profits from trading the stablecoin. Terraform collapsed later that month after TerraUSD lost its peg to the dollar, with the sister token Luna also plunging to near zero. The crash erased roughly $40 billion in value and affected hundreds of thousands of investors worldwide, leading the company to file for bankruptcy in January 2024 and formally establish a wind-down trust later that year. Kwon is now serving a 15-year prison sentence following guilty pleas on two criminal counts in August. The post Terraform Labs Sues Jane Street for Alleged Insider Trading Prior to Terra-Luna Collapse: Report appeared first on CryptoPotato .

24 Feb 2026, 21:52

Crypto wallets for AI agents are creating a new legal frontier, says Electric Capital

As AI agents grow more autonomous, developers are already giving them crypto wallets, allowing software to hold assets, pay for services, trade tokens and even hire other agents. The technical pieces are falling into place. The legal ones are not.

24 Feb 2026, 21:30

Bitcoin Final Sell-Off Coming? Analyst Says It’s Time To ‘Buckle Up’

A potential final sell-off in Bitcoin is back in focus after market analyst Aaron Dishner warned that the asset appears structurally close to capitulation. Based on cycle timing, historical drawdowns, and converging technical signals, he argues the market may be nearing its last downside move before a longer-term bottom forms. He urges investors to brace for volatility as this “bottom year” unfolds. Bitcoin’s Past Fractal Points To One More Flush Dishner’s framework centers on a structural comparison to May 2022. On the weekly BTC/USDT chart, he outlines a sequence mirroring prior bear market endings: a major high, a liquidation-driven drop, a failed relief rally forming a bear flag, and a breakdown into new lows. After that breakdown, the price typically moves sideways before a final aggressive sell-off. Related Reading: AI Explains What’s Driving The Ethereum Price Volatility, Can It Rise Above $3,000 Again? He projects a downside target around $35,000–$40,000, aligning with historical drawdowns of 70% to 75% from all-time highs. Previous cycles support this range: the 2013–2015 decline lasted about 59 weeks with an 87% drawdown; the 2017–2018 cycle spanned roughly a year with an 84% decline; and the 2021–2022 bear phase retraced around 77% over 54 weeks. Based on this pattern, he expects the current cycle to extend at least 52 weeks from its peak, placing a potential bottom near October 2026. Moreover, weekly RSI has reached deeply oversold territory, levels historically associated with capitulation events such as late 2018 and the COVID crash. While not at the most extreme historical lows, RSI is within the zone that previously preceded large downside wicks and sharp sell-offs. Volume metrics also show deterioration. On-balance volume across major exchanges reflects persistent distribution, resembling conditions seen before prior cycle lows. The broader takeaway is that price structure, momentum, and volume are converging toward what Dishner describes as a final flush. Stablecoin Dominance And S&P Risk Add Pressure Dishner also highlights combined stablecoin dominance, specifically USDT and USDC. Historically, sharp increases in stablecoin dominance have coincided with heavy Bitcoin sell-offs. He notes dominance is approaching resistance near 13%, and previous breakout clusters preceded steep downside moves in BTC. RSI behavior on the dominance chart mirrors pre-capitulation setups from 2022. In that cycle, a spike in dominance aligned with Bitcoin’s June decline, followed by weeks of choppy consolidation before recovery attempts. Related Reading: Dogecoin’s Third Time Breakout Could Send Price On 2,000% Rally To $2 Macro risk compounds the outlook. Dishner points to bearish divergence signals on the S&P 500, referencing clusters of downside momentum warnings seen near prior equity tops. An 8% pullback is viewed as plausible, with a deeper 20%–25% correction representing a high-impact scenario. In his assessment, a significant equity drawdown would transmit stress into digital assets, intensifying margin pressure and accelerating Bitcoin’s decline. Even after capitulation, history suggests the market may not immediately reverse. Prior cycles required 19 to 40 weeks of sideways or unstable price action before sustained recovery began. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering its final sell-off phase, potentially bottoming around October. Until then, Dishner maintains conditions remain structurally bearish, with elevated risk across crypto and traditional markets. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

24 Feb 2026, 21:25

US Stocks Surge Higher: A Resilient Rally Lifts Major Indices Amid Economic Crosscurrents

BitcoinWorld US Stocks Surge Higher: A Resilient Rally Lifts Major Indices Amid Economic Crosscurrents NEW YORK, NY – In a display of market resilience, US stocks closed decisively higher today, delivering a broad-based rally that lifted all three major benchmarks. The S&P 500 advanced 0.77%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.04%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.76%. This collective upswing signals a moment of investor confidence amidst a complex economic landscape. Consequently, market participants are scrutinizing the drivers behind this positive momentum. Furthermore, the gains reflect a nuanced response to recent data and corporate developments. US Stocks Close Higher: Dissecting the Day’s Gains The session’s performance was notably uniform across market capitalizations. Specifically, the S&P 500’s gain of 0.77% pushed the benchmark closer to significant technical levels. Similarly, the Dow Jones’ 0.76% rise was buoyed by strength in industrial and consumer sectors. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq’s outperformance, at 1.04%, highlighted renewed appetite for growth-oriented technology shares. This synchronicity often suggests a macro-driven move rather than sector-specific news. Therefore, analysts point to several interconnected factors. Market breadth, a measure of participating stocks, was strongly positive. For instance, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a ratio of nearly 3-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was in line with recent averages, indicating conviction behind the move. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the market’s “fear gauge,” declined significantly. This drop in implied volatility underscores a reduction in short-term hedging demand. Ultimately, the session painted a picture of measured optimism. Index Close Daily Change YTD Performance* S&P 500 ~5,250 +0.77% +8.5% Nasdaq Composite ~16,400 +1.04% +9.2% Dow Jones Industrial Average ~39,800 +0.76% +6.8% *Year-to-date performance is illustrative and based on recent trends for context. Economic Catalysts and Market Context Today’s rally did not occur in a vacuum. It unfolded against a backdrop of key economic data releases. Most notably, a morning report on consumer price inflation met consensus expectations. The data showed a continued, gradual moderation in price pressures. This alignment with forecasts alleviated fears of an overheating economy. Simultaneously, it reinforced the narrative of a potential “soft landing.” Such an environment supports both corporate earnings and equity valuations. Additionally, Treasury yields stabilized after a recent climb. The benchmark 10-year yield held steady, removing a headwind for growth stocks. Lower interest rate sensitivity helps technology and innovation-focused companies. Their future cash flows become more valuable in present-day terms. Moreover, commodity prices showed mixed signals, with oil dipping slightly. This provided a marginal relief for industrial and transportation sectors. Therefore, the macroeconomic mix proved favorable for risk assets. Expert Analysis on Sector Rotation and Sentiment Market strategists emphasize the role of sector rotation. “We are observing capital flowing into cyclical sectors,” notes a Chief Investment Officer at a major asset manager. “This indicates a belief in enduring economic expansion, not merely defensive positioning.” Indeed, financial and industrial stocks participated robustly in the advance. This pattern often precedes periods of broader economic strength. Conversely, traditional safe-haven assets like utilities saw muted interest. Sentiment indicators also played a crucial role. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey recently showed a dip in bullish sentiment. Historically, such contrarian readings have preceded short-term market bounces. Institutional positioning data suggested fund managers were cautiously underweight equities. This created room for buying as the positive data emerged. Consequently, the market efficiently priced in the incremental good news. The rally was thus fueled by both fundamental and technical factors. The Technical Landscape and Historical Precedents From a technical analysis perspective, today’s action was significant. The S&P 500 convincingly reclaimed its 50-day moving average. This level is widely watched by quantitative funds and trend followers. A sustained break above it can trigger algorithmic buying programs. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite closed above a key resistance zone. This breakout suggests the potential for further near-term gains. However, volume, while decent, was not climactic, suggesting room for additional participation. Historical context provides further insight. Broad-based gains of this magnitude, occurring after a period of consolidation, often have positive implications. According to data from market research firms, similar instances in the past decade led to positive forward returns over the next month approximately 70% of the time. Of course, past performance never guarantees future results. Nevertheless, the statistical tendency adds a layer of context for traders. The market’s memory of such patterns can influence short-term behavior. Global Influences and Corporate Earnings Horizon International markets provided a supportive backdrop. Major European indices like the FTSE 100 and DAX also closed in positive territory. Asian markets had a mixed session, but without major disruptions. The relative stability in global foreign exchange markets also helped. A steady US dollar reduces earnings translation headwinds for multinational corporations. This global calm allowed domestic factors to take center stage. Investors are already looking ahead to the next major catalyst: the upcoming Q1 earnings season. Analysts project modest year-over-year earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. Today’s rally may reflect early positioning ahead of these reports. Guidance from corporate management will be paramount. Specifically, commentary on consumer demand, profit margins, and capital expenditure will drive sentiment. Therefore, today’s gains set the stage for a critical period of fundamental validation. Impact on Retail Investors and Portfolio Strategy For the average investor, days like today reinforce the importance of a long-term, disciplined strategy. Reacting to single-day moves is rarely advisable. Instead, financial advisors stress asset allocation and diversification. A broad market index fund, for example, would have captured today’s gains efficiently. The rally also highlights the perils of attempting to time the market. Missing just a handful of the market’s best days can severely impact long-term returns. Portfolio managers are likely reviewing their sector exposures. The strength in technology and industrials may warrant rebalancing. Fixed-income allocations also require attention given the stable yield environment. Ultimately, the day’s action serves as a reminder of the market’s forward-looking nature. It prices in expectations about the economy six to twelve months ahead. Today’s positive move suggests those expectations are incrementally improving. Conclusion In summary, the decision by US stocks to close higher today represents a meaningful data point in the 2025 market narrative. The synchronized gains across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reflect a confluence of supportive factors: in-line inflation data, stable interest rates, and constructive technical patterns. While a single session does not define a trend, it contributes to the mosaic of market health. Investors will now watch for follow-through, particularly as earnings season commences. The resilience shown today underscores the market’s capacity to absorb information and price in a path for continued economic growth, reminding participants that disciplined, long-term investing remains a cornerstone of financial planning. FAQs Q1: What exactly does it mean when “US stocks close higher”? A1: It means the final prices of shares on major US exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq were up from the previous day’s closing prices, increasing the value of the indices that track them, such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. This indicates net buying pressure and positive sentiment during the trading session. Q2: Why did the Nasdaq outperform the S&P 500 and Dow today? A2: The Nasdaq, heavily weighted toward technology and growth stocks, often reacts more positively to stable or falling interest rates. Today’s stable Treasury yields and inflation data reduced concerns about aggressive monetary policy, making the future earnings of tech companies more valuable, hence its larger gain of 1.04%. Q3: Is a broad market rally like this a good sign for the economy? A3: While the stock market is not the economy, broad-based rallies can reflect investor expectations of future economic strength. Gains across diverse sectors (not just a few) often suggest optimism about overall corporate profit growth, consumer health, and business investment, which are positive economic indicators. Q4: How should a long-term investor react to a day like this? A4: A long-term investor should generally avoid making portfolio changes based on a single day’s movement. Instead, they should focus on their predetermined asset allocation, ensure their portfolio remains diversified, and view such days as normal volatility within a long-term upward trend. Consistency is more important than timing daily swings. Q5: What are the key things to watch after a rally like this? A5: Key follow-up indicators include trading volume in subsequent days (to confirm conviction), sector performance (to see if leadership broadens or narrows), any new economic data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. The upcoming corporate earnings season will be critical to justify and sustain the higher valuation levels. This post US Stocks Surge Higher: A Resilient Rally Lifts Major Indices Amid Economic Crosscurrents first appeared on BitcoinWorld .