hodler

24 Feb 2026, 12:30

Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Plunges Below 1, Signaling Deepening Market Capitulation

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Plunges Below 1, Signaling Deepening Market Capitulation Global cryptocurrency markets entered a critical phase this week as a key on-chain metric flashed a stark warning. The Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has decisively fallen below 1, according to data from analytics firm Glassnode. This technical event signals a full transition into a period where investor realized losses now consistently outpace profits. Consequently, analysts are scrutinizing historical patterns to gauge potential market duration and recovery signals. Understanding the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio The realized profit/loss ratio serves as a crucial on-chain thermometer for market sentiment. Specifically, it measures the total value of coins sold for a profit against the total value of coins sold at a loss over a given period. A ratio above 1 indicates a healthy, profit-taking market. Conversely, a ratio below 1, as observed now, reveals a market dominated by loss realization. Glassnode applies a 90-day moving average to this data to smooth volatility and identify sustained trends. This metric’s fall is significant because it reflects actual investor behavior on the blockchain, not just speculative price movements. When the ratio stays below 1, it often points to widespread capitulation. Investors are selling their holdings at a loss, frequently driven by fear or exhaustion. Historically, these phases have marked important cyclical lows, though they can persist for extended periods. The Mechanics of Realized Losses Realized losses occur when investors sell Bitcoin at a price lower than their original purchase price. The blockchain permanently records these transactions. During bull markets, profit-taking dominates the metric. However, during prolonged downturns, loss realization begins to accumulate. The aggregate shift below the 1.0 threshold indicates that loss-selling has become the dominant market force. This shift often exhausts weak hands and redistributes assets to long-term holders. Historical Context and Duration Analysis Glassnode’s analysis provides critical historical context for the current situation. The firm notes that previous instances where the 90-day moving average of the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1 were not brief events. In fact, the indicator typically remained depressed for over six months before a sustained recovery began. This pattern held true during major bear market phases following the 2018 and 2014 peaks. The table below outlines key historical periods where this ratio signaled capitulation: Period Duration Below 1 Subsequent Market Phase 2014-2015 Bear Market ~10 months Long accumulation before 2017 bull run 2018-2019 Bear Market ~8 months Extended basing period before 2020-2021 cycle 2022 Downturn ~6 months (initial) Volatile basing with multiple tests These periods shared common characteristics: low volatility, declining trading volumes, and negative sentiment. They also represented prime accumulation zones for patient investors. The duration suggests markets require substantial time to absorb excess supply from capitulating sellers. Defining Market Capitulation and Its Phases The term market capitulation describes a period of panic selling where investors surrender to downward price pressure. This often creates a sentiment extreme. Capitulation is frequently a necessary cleansing process that resets market leverage and overvaluation. Glassnode’s data suggests the current Bitcoin market is exhibiting these classic signs. Capitulation typically unfolds in several stages: Denial: Investors hold through initial declines expecting a quick rebound. Fear: Prolonged downturns trigger anxiety and reduced risk appetite. Panic & Capitulation: A sharp sell-off occurs as investors exit at any price to avoid further loss. Exhaustion & Basing: Selling pressure abates, volume drops, and the market establishes a bottom. The realized profit/loss ratio falling below 1 strongly correlates with the later stages of this process. It quantifies the moment where panic and loss-taking become systematic. The Role of On-Chain Analytics Firms like Glassnode provide transparency by analyzing the public Bitcoin ledger. Their metrics, including MVRV Z-Score, SOPR, and exchange flows, offer a data-driven view of investor psychology. Unlike social sentiment, which can be noisy, on-chain data reflects actual monetary decisions. This makes it a valuable tool for identifying regime changes, such as the current shift to a loss-dominant market. Implications for Liquidity and Market Recovery A recovery in the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio back above 1 would carry significant implications. Glassnode explains that such a move would signal that liquidity is returning to the market. This means capital is flowing back in, allowing sellers to exit at breakeven or a profit rather than a loss. It would indicate renewed demand is absorbing the remaining sell-side pressure. Market recovery often requires several foundational shifts: Supply Absorption: The market must fully absorb coins sold by capitulating investors. Sentiment Shift: Negative narratives must be replaced by neutral or cautiously optimistic ones. Macro Stability: Broader financial conditions need to stabilize or improve. New Demand: Fresh capital from new or returning investors must enter the ecosystem. Monitoring the ratio for a sustained climb above 1 will be a key task for analysts watching for a true cyclical turn. It would represent a fundamental change in the underlying economic reality for Bitcoin holders. Broader Market Context and Expert Perspectives The current metric shift occurs within a complex global financial landscape. Traders are weighing factors like monetary policy, institutional adoption, and regulatory developments. While on-chain data points to capitulation, other indicators must align for a confirmed bottom. These include miner health, derivative market positioning, and stablecoin supply. Seasoned analysts often view capitulation phases as a necessary, if painful, part of the market cycle. They flush out excess leverage and reset valuations to levels that support the next advance. The depth and duration of the realized loss phase can influence the strength of the subsequent recovery. A more thorough capitulation often lays a stronger foundation. Comparing Asset Class Behaviors Capitulation is not unique to cryptocurrency. Traditional equity and commodity markets experience similar phenomena during major downturns. The key difference with Bitcoin and similar digital assets is the transparency of the underlying ledger. This allows for precise, real-time measurement of investor cost bases and profit/loss dynamics, providing a clearer picture of market stress. Conclusion The descent of the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio below the critical level of 1 marks a definitive shift in market structure. According to Glassnode’s historical analysis, this signals a transition into a phase of excess realized losses and potential capitulation. While such periods are challenging, they have historically represented important inflection points in the market cycle. Investors and analysts will now closely watch for signs of stabilization and the eventual recovery of the ratio, which would herald the return of liquidity and demand. Understanding this on-chain metric provides a data-backed lens through which to view market psychology and potential future direction. FAQs Q1: What does the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio measure? The ratio measures the total value of Bitcoin sold for a profit versus the total value sold at a loss over a specific period. A value below 1 means losses exceed profits. Q2: Why is a ratio below 1 significant? It indicates the market is dominated by investors selling at a loss, which is a common characteristic of capitulation phases and potential market bottoms. Q3: How long has this ratio stayed below 1 in past cycles? According to Glassnode, historically it has remained below 1 for over six months during major bear market periods before recovering. Q4: What would signal a market recovery using this metric? A sustained recovery of the ratio back above 1 would signal that liquidity is returning and selling pressure is being met with sufficient demand at higher price levels. Q5: Is this metric a timing tool for buying or selling? While it identifies market regimes, it is not a precise timing tool. It signals a high-probability environment for capitulation and long-term accumulation, but bottoms can be complex processes. This post Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Plunges Below 1, Signaling Deepening Market Capitulation first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 12:25

Emirates NBD Bitcoin Consideration Sparks Major Institutional Adoption Wave in Dubai

BitcoinWorld Emirates NBD Bitcoin Consideration Sparks Major Institutional Adoption Wave in Dubai DUBAI, UAE – In a landmark development for cryptocurrency adoption, Emirates NBD, Dubai’s state-owned banking giant, announced it is actively considering adding Bitcoin to its investment portfolio. This potential move represents a significant shift in institutional finance, particularly within the Middle East’s burgeoning financial hub. Consequently, the announcement has generated substantial market interest and analysis regarding Bitcoin’s evolving role in traditional finance. Emirates NBD Bitcoin Portfolio Review Signals Institutional Shift During a recent CNBC interview, a senior Emirates NBD executive revealed the bank’s internal review of Bitcoin. The executive specifically described Bitcoin as a “store of value” and indicated the bank is evaluating a potential 1% portfolio allocation. Moreover, the bank’s internal financial models project Bitcoin’s fair value could approach $100,000 within the next 12 months. This analysis suggests a strong institutional belief in Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation potential, especially at current price levels deemed “far more attractive” than six months prior. This consideration follows a broader trend of institutional adoption. For instance, major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity have launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. Similarly, sovereign wealth funds in regions like Norway have explored digital asset exposure. Therefore, Emirates NBD’s review aligns with a global reassessment of Bitcoin’s strategic value. The bank’s decision will likely influence other regional financial institutions. Dubai’s Progressive Cryptocurrency Regulatory Framework Dubai has established itself as a forward-thinking jurisdiction for digital assets. The Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), launched in 2022, provides a comprehensive regulatory framework. This environment enables licensed entities to operate with clarity. Consequently, Emirates NBD’s exploration occurs within a supportive and regulated ecosystem. The following table outlines key milestones in Dubai’s crypto regulatory journey: Year Regulatory Development Impact 2022 Establishment of VARA Created a dedicated regulator for virtual assets 2023 Issuance of Full Market Product Licenses Allowed exchanges like Binance to offer retail services 2024 Guidance for Traditional Financial Institutions Provided clarity for banks on digital asset custody and services This regulatory progress reduces operational risk for institutions. As a result, banks like Emirates NBD can conduct thorough due diligence. Furthermore, clear rules enhance investor protection and market integrity. Expert Analysis on Portfolio Diversification Financial analysts highlight the diversification benefits of a small Bitcoin allocation. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited low correlation with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. Therefore, a 1% allocation can potentially improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns. However, experts consistently emphasize the importance of position sizing due to Bitcoin’s volatility. Major investment banks have published research on optimal digital asset allocations. For example, studies often suggest allocations between 1% and 5% for institutional portfolios. These models consider Bitcoin’s asymmetric return profile. Importantly, Emirates NBD’s reported 1% consideration falls squarely within this analytical range. Market Impact and Regional Financial Leadership The announcement immediately affected market sentiment. Bitcoin’s price showed resilience following the news. Additionally, other regional banking stocks experienced increased investor inquiry. This event underscores Dubai’s ambition to lead in financial innovation. Key potential impacts include: Competitive Pressure: Other Gulf banks may accelerate their own digital asset reviews. Wealth Management Evolution: High-net-worth client offerings may soon include crypto options. Infrastructure Development: Demand for secure custody and trading infrastructure will rise. Talent Acquisition: Banks will compete for professionals with blockchain expertise. Dubai competes with financial centers like Singapore and Hong Kong. A successful integration of digital assets by its flagship bank could provide a substantial competitive edge. Moreover, it aligns with the UAE’s broader economic diversification strategies beyond hydrocarbons. Conclusion Emirates NBD’s consideration of a Bitcoin allocation marks a pivotal moment for institutional cryptocurrency adoption. The bank’s analysis of Bitcoin as a store of value with significant upside potential reflects deepening institutional sophistication. This development, supported by Dubai’s clear regulatory framework, could catalyze further adoption across the Middle East’s financial sector. Ultimately, the final decision by Emirates NBD will be closely watched as a bellwether for traditional finance’s integration with the digital asset ecosystem. FAQs Q1: What exactly did Emirates NBD announce regarding Bitcoin? Emirates NBD announced it is conducting an internal review to consider adding Bitcoin to its investment portfolio, with a potential allocation of 1%, as disclosed by a bank executive in a CNBC interview. Q2: Why is a 1% allocation significant for a bank? A 1% allocation from a major state-owned bank represents a substantial monetary commitment and, more importantly, a powerful symbolic endorsement of Bitcoin’s legitimacy as an institutional-grade asset for portfolio diversification. Q3: How does Dubai’s regulation support such a move? Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) has established a comprehensive regulatory framework, providing licensed financial institutions with the legal clarity and operational guidelines needed to explore digital asset services securely. Q4: What price target did Emirates NBD mention for Bitcoin? The bank executive stated that internal models project a fair value for Bitcoin approaching $100,000 within the next 12 months, based on their financial analysis. Q5: Could other banks in the region follow Emirates NBD’s lead? Yes, financial analysts suggest that Emirates NBD’s public review creates competitive pressure, making it highly likely that other major regional banks will accelerate their own evaluations of cryptocurrency exposure to avoid falling behind in financial innovation. This post Emirates NBD Bitcoin Consideration Sparks Major Institutional Adoption Wave in Dubai first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 12:20

Pound Sterling Plummets: Bank of England Testimony Sparks Currency Concerns

BitcoinWorld Pound Sterling Plummets: Bank of England Testimony Sparks Currency Concerns LONDON, November 2025 – The British pound experienced notable downward pressure today as key Bank of England policymakers testified before the Treasury Select Committee, revealing cautious signals about future monetary policy direction that immediately impacted currency markets. Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Reacts to Monetary Policy Signals The GBP/USD pair declined 0.4% to 1.2850 during morning trading. Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair rose 0.3% to 0.8550. These movements followed testimony from Monetary Policy Committee members. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized persistent inflation concerns. He noted service sector inflation remained elevated at 5.9%. Consequently, market participants adjusted their rate cut expectations. The testimony highlighted several key economic indicators: Core inflation remains above target at 4.2% Services inflation persists at elevated levels Wage growth shows gradual moderation GDP growth projections remain subdued Market analysts immediately reacted to these developments. Currency traders positioned for prolonged higher rates. However, growth concerns tempered hawkish expectations. This created conflicting pressures on Sterling valuation. Bank of England Testimony Reveals Policy Divisions Committee members presented nuanced views during their parliamentary appearance. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden highlighted persistent inflation risks. He cited tight labor market conditions as a concern. Conversely, external member Swati Dhingra advocated for earlier rate cuts. She emphasized weakening consumption indicators. These divergent views created market uncertainty. The testimony revealed three distinct policy camps: Policy Stance Key Advocates Primary Concerns Hawkish Ramsden, Mann Services inflation, wage growth Centrist Bailey, Broadbent Balancing inflation/growth risks Dovish Dhingra, Tenreyro Economic slowdown, unemployment risk Market participants closely monitored these divisions. Currency volatility increased during questioning sessions. Committee members acknowledged economic headwinds. They referenced global monetary policy coordination challenges. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis Today’s testimony follows previous parliamentary appearances. The November 2024 session produced similar currency volatility. However, current economic conditions differ substantially. Inflation has moderated from peak levels. Global central banks face coordinated challenges. The Federal Reserve maintains higher-for-longer stance. The European Central Bank monitors disinflation progress. Comparative analysis reveals interesting patterns: GBP underperformance versus commodity currencies Relative strength against European counterparts Dollar dominance in current market environment Carry trade adjustments impacting flows Historical data shows consistent patterns. Parliamentary testimony typically creates short-term volatility. However, fundamental factors determine medium-term trends. Today’s movements align with historical precedents. Economic Indicators and Market Implications Multiple economic factors influenced today’s testimony and market reaction. Recent data releases provided crucial context. UK unemployment rose to 4.3% last quarter. Wage growth moderated to 6.2% annually. Business investment showed tentative recovery signs. Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory. These indicators created complex policy environment. Market implications extend beyond currency markets: Government bond yields edged higher Equity markets showed mixed reactions Derivatives pricing adjusted rate expectations International investment flows moderated Financial institutions updated their forecasts following testimony. Major banks revised Sterling projections downward. Investment firms adjusted portfolio allocations. Currency hedge ratios increased among multinational corporations. Expert Analysis and Forward Projections Leading financial institutions provided immediate analysis. Goldman Sachs economists noted persistent inflation concerns. They highlighted services sector stickiness. JP Morgan analysts emphasized growth risks. They projected earlier rate cuts than market pricing. Bloomberg Intelligence compiled survey data. Their findings revealed several consensus views: First rate cut expected Q2 2026 GBP/USD year-end target: 1.30-1.32 range Inflation returning to target by late 2026 Moderate recession risk at 35% probability Academic economists contributed additional perspectives. London School of Economics researchers highlighted structural factors. They cited productivity challenges and Brexit adjustments. Oxford Economics analysts emphasized global synchronization risks. Global Context and Currency Correlations Sterling movements occurred within broader global context. The US dollar index strengthened 0.2% today. Eurozone economic data showed modest improvement. Japanese yen intervention rumors circulated. Emerging market currencies faced pressure. These global developments influenced Sterling dynamics. Key correlation patterns emerged: Currency Pair Correlation with GBP/USD Recent Trend EUR/USD +0.85 Moderate decline USD/JPY -0.65 Significant appreciation AUD/USD +0.72 Moderate decline GBP/CHF N/A Notable depreciation Central bank policy divergence remains crucial factor. The Federal Reserve maintains restrictive stance. European Central Bank monitors data carefully. Bank of Japan faces yen weakness challenges. These global dynamics create complex environment for Sterling. Conclusion The Pound Sterling exchange rate demonstrated sensitivity to Bank of England communications today. Parliamentary testimony revealed ongoing policy committee divisions. Inflation concerns balanced against growth risks. Currency markets adjusted positions accordingly. Future Sterling movements will depend on economic data evolution. Monetary policy decisions will follow evidence-based approach. The Pound Sterling faces complex valuation environment. Global currency dynamics add additional complexity. Market participants should monitor upcoming data releases closely. FAQs Q1: Why did the Pound Sterling decline during Bank of England testimony? The Pound Sterling declined due to cautious signals about future rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns mentioned by policymakers, and market adjustments to prolonged higher interest rate expectations. Q2: What key indicators did Bank of England officials highlight? Officials emphasized services sector inflation at 5.9%, core inflation at 4.2%, wage growth moderation trends, and subdued GDP growth projections as crucial monitoring points. Q3: How do market expectations compare to Bank of England guidance? Market expectations for rate cuts remain more aggressive than Bank of England signals, creating policy divergence that contributes to currency volatility and adjustment periods. Q4: What global factors influence Pound Sterling valuation? Global factors include US Federal Reserve policy, European Central Bank decisions, commodity price movements, risk sentiment, and relative economic performance comparisons. Q5: How does today’s movement compare to historical testimony reactions? Today’s movement aligns with historical patterns where parliamentary testimony creates short-term volatility, though the magnitude remains within typical ranges observed over the past five years. This post Pound Sterling Plummets: Bank of England Testimony Sparks Currency Concerns first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 12:15

Bitcoin teeters near $63,000 as pippin's rally shows froth remains

Your day-ahead look for Feb. 24, 2026

24 Feb 2026, 12:13

$0.00 Inflows: What’s Happening With Ripple ETFs as XRP Struggles at $1.30?

The cryptocurrency market is in retreat once again as of the start of the current business week, with BTC dumping to a new local low of under $63,000. Most altcoins have followed suit, and Ripple’s cross-border token is no exception. The broader ecosystem’s state, in which over $150 billion left the total market cap in 36 hours, is the most apparent reason behind XRP’s 4.5% correction to $1.33. However, there might be another one lurking. ETFs See No Action Data from SoSoValue shows that investors who opt to gain XRP exposure through the spot Ripple ETFs in the US have seemingly disappeared. Half of the trading days last week saw no reportable net inflows , and the streak continued on February 23. As of now, three of the last five trading days have seen an emphatic “$0.00” next to the total daily net inflow number. Consequently, the cumulative net inflows since the first such product saw the light of day in mid-November have remained flat at $1.23 billion. The current investor behavior is entirely different than the products’ initial days, in which they surpassed the $1 billion mark in precisely a month. Ripple (XRP) ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue XRP Price Down but Not Out As mentioned above, XRP has declined by over 4.5% in the past 24 hours. It’s also down 8% weekly and a whopping 30% monthly. As such, it currently fights to stay above $1.30, prompting prominent analyst CryptoWZRD to conclude that the asset had, as expected, closed bearish yesterday. However, they explained that the XRP/BTC trading pair “printed bullish,” and predicted more gains for Ripple’s token against the market leader. This, in turn, would help XRP “turn bullish.” Merlijn The Trading said yesterday that the cross-border token was “holding structure while alts bleed.” He outlined the significance of the $1.36 support, but the asset has since broken below it. Nevertheless, he added that the more macro XRP behavior is different than what people expect, as it’s trading less than a speculative altcoin at this point. In fact, it shows more signs of an infrastructure token as it’s being supported by “real utility narratives.” “We are talking about payments, tokenization, on-chain settlement rails, and growing real-world activity on XRP.” XRP IS HOLDING STRUCTURE WHILE ALTS BLEED. Support: $1.36 Range high: $1.60 (no breakout yet) This isn’t hype price action. It’s infrastructure positioning: Payments Tokenization Settlement rails Utility takes time to price in. Accumulation comes before expansion. pic.twitter.com/mGPffvRaG3 — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 23, 2026 The post $0.00 Inflows: What’s Happening With Ripple ETFs as XRP Struggles at $1.30? appeared first on CryptoPotato .

24 Feb 2026, 12:11

MSTR Stock Dips 5% as Michael Saylor’s Strategy Unrealized Loss Hits $9.5B

Michael Saylor’s Strategy unrealized loss has surged to $9.5 billion after the Bitcoin price continued to decline to near $63,000. At press time, the Bitcoin price was trading at $63,096, a 4.5% decline in the last 24 hours and 7% in the last week. Concurrently, Strategy Inc. Class A shares also moved lower in line with the recent decline in Bitcoin. The MSTR stock closed at $123.71, down $7.34 (5.60%) today, and in pre-market trading, the price was $122.17, down $1.54 (1.24%). Strategy’s Position Deepens as Bitcoin Declines Strategy’s latest filings show a sharper gap between its Bitcoin cost basis and market value. The company now holds 717,722 BTC. These coins were purchased for $54.56 billion at an average price of about $76,020 per coin. With Bitcoin trading between $63,000 and $66,000 in recent sessions, the position reflects an unrealized loss of about $9.5 billion. The company’s newest purchase, as we reported, was when it acquired 592 BTC for $39.8 million. This buy was funded through the sale of 297,940 Class A shares. The share sale raised $39.7 million under the firm’s at-the-market program. The company stated that the funds were used to continue its regular accumulation plan. Strategy has been buying Bitcoin each week for nine straight weeks. Its approach has remained steady even when Bitcoin showed weaker price action. The firm now controls about 3.4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, which keeps it as the largest corporate holder of the asset. Unrealized Losses Grow Under New Accounting Rules The $9.5 billion figure reflects a market-to-market calculation rather than a cash loss. Accounting standards require companies to report digital asset values based on market prices each quarter. Because of this rule, Strategy’s earnings now move more closely with Bitcoin price swings. The company has not sold its Bitcoin to realize gains or losses. Executives have repeated that the holdings are part of a long-term plan. Michael Saylor has stated many times that the asset is viewed as a long-duration treasury reserve. The company has also said that price moves do not affect its intent to continue acquiring Bitcoin. Strategy’s total Bitcoin value currently sits between $45 billion and $47 billion, depending on market conditions each day. The variation continues to create large quarterly changes in reported earnings. In a recent quarter, the firm reported a large loss driven mainly by Bitcoin’s decline, and the company noted that this was tied to price movements rather than core operations. Funding Strategy and Equity Programs Strategy continues to rely on equity programs to finance its Bitcoin purchases. The company has $37.4 billion in securities available for future sales. This includes about $7.8 billion in MSTR stock and $20.3 billion in STRK preferred stock. Preferred stock issuances have become a key part of the firm’s financing structure. These include STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, and STRE. Only STRK can be converted into common shares. Dividend payments range from 8 to 10%. A company spokesperson explained that “preferred dividends are discretionary, and non-payment does not require liquidation of Bitcoin.” Source: Polymarket Convertible notes remain another part of the capital stack. Strategy has stated, as we reported , that it can meet its $6 billion debt load even in a lower-price Bitcoin environment. The company said its liquidity position is managed to avoid forced sales of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, 86% of traders have placed their bets that Strategy will hold its BTC holdings throughout the year.