Invest ideasNews
24 Feb 2026, 14:30
Bitcoin Bottom Signals a Strategic Buying Opportunity: Analyst Urges Incremental Investment
BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Bottom Signals a Strategic Buying Opportunity: Analyst Urges Incremental Investment On-chain data from leading analytics firm Glassnode indicates Bitcoin may have established a significant market bottom, presenting a calculated opportunity for long-term investors. According to a detailed analysis published this week, key metrics now mirror historical capitulation phases, suggesting the current price range represents a foundation for future cycles. This assessment comes amidst a complex macroeconomic landscape, prompting a closer examination of the data driving this conclusion. Decoding the Bitcoin Bottom: On-Chain Evidence and Historical Parallels Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, has presented a data-driven case for Bitcoin’s current positioning. He specifically points to mean reversion models across both technical and on-chain frameworks. These models suggest BTC’s price is trading within a defined bottoming range. Consequently, this pattern bears a striking resemblance to two previous major market cycles. The first parallel is the December 2018 bottom, which preceded the 2019-2021 bull run. The second is the June 2022 capitulation, which occurred months before the final low of $15,600 triggered by the FTX collapse in November 2022. This analysis relies on verifiable blockchain data, not speculation. Metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score, which compares market value to realized value, and the Puell Multiple, which tracks miner revenue, have entered zones historically associated with long-term value accumulation. Furthermore, network activity and holder behavior patterns show similarities to past cycle lows. These indicators collectively form a mosaic of evidence that seasoned analysts use to gauge market structure. The Strategy of Dollar-Cost Averaging Amidst Uncertainty In response to these findings, Checkmate advocates for a disciplined investment strategy: dollar-cost averaging (DCA). This method involves purchasing a fixed dollar amount of an asset at regular intervals, regardless of its price. The core argument is that trying to time the absolute bottom is exceptionally difficult, even with robust data. Therefore, systematically accumulating assets during a statistically cheap range mitigates risk and removes emotional decision-making. The analyst explicitly advises investors to ignore prevailing bearish sentiment. He acknowledges the potential for further price declines, a common feature of final bear market phases. However, historical precedent shows that the initial bottom often forms well before the final liquidity flush event. For instance, in 2022, the initial bottoming signals emerged in June, but the ultimate low came after the FTX failure in December. This six-month period of sideways consolidation and final shakeout tested investor patience but ultimately confirmed the cycle low. Expert Context: The Psychology of Market Bottoms Market bottoms are not defined by a single price point but by a period of investor exhaustion and structural reset. Glassnode’s research provides empirical backing for this concept. During these phases, long-term holders typically increase their accumulation, while short-term speculative activity diminishes. This transfer of assets from weak to strong hands is a critical on-chain signature of a sustainable bottom. Checkmate’s commentary aligns with this established framework, emphasizing patience over prediction. The current analysis also considers broader macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency markets. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and regulatory developments create a challenging environment. However, on-chain data focuses on the internal health and behavior of the Bitcoin network itself, offering a counterpoint to purely macro-driven narratives. This multi-faceted approach enhances the authority and trustworthiness of the assessment. Comparative Analysis: 2018, 2022, and the Present Understanding the current moment requires examining past cycles. The following table outlines key similarities and contextual differences: Cycle Phase December 2018 June – December 2022 Current Analysis (2025) Primary Catalyst End of ICO boom, mining capitulation Terra/LUNA collapse, macro tightening Post-ETF adoption, macro uncertainty On-Chain Signal MVRV Z-Score below -0.5 Puell Multiple deep in undervalued zone Multiple mean reversion models aligning Price Action Post-Signal ~6 months of basing before rally ~6 months of basing, final flush (FTX) Pattern suggests accumulation range Investor Sentiment Extreme fear, “crypto winter” narrative Extreme fear, multiple bankruptcies Persistent bearishness, caution This comparative view highlights a recurring theme: bottoms are processes, not events. They involve a convergence of negative sentiment, low prices, and constructive on-chain developments. The data suggests we are witnessing a similar convergence today. Conclusion Glassnode’s on-chain analysis presents a compelling, evidence-based argument that Bitcoin is trading within a historical bottoming range. While external volatility and price declines remain possible, the data indicates this period shares key characteristics with past cycle lows that preceded major rallies. The recommended strategy of dollar-cost averaging offers a prudent method for navigating this uncertainty, focusing on long-term accumulation over short-term timing. For investors, the current Bitcoin bottom analysis underscores the importance of data, discipline, and patience in cryptocurrency markets. FAQs Q1: What is a “mean reversion model” in on-chain analysis? A mean reversion model is a statistical tool that identifies when an asset’s price or a metric has deviated significantly from its historical average and is likely to revert back to that mean. In Bitcoin’s context, analysts use these models to spot extreme overvaluation or undervaluation. Q2: Why does the analyst recommend dollar-cost averaging instead of a lump-sum investment? Dollar-cost averaging reduces the risk of investing a large sum at a temporarily high price. By spreading purchases over time during a bottoming range, an investor achieves an average entry price, which is often more effective than attempting to pinpoint the absolute lowest price. Q3: What was the significance of the FTX collapse in the 2022 bottom? The FTX collapse in November 2022 acted as a final “liquidity flush” or capitulation event. It forced the last major wave of distressed selling, creating the ultimate cycle low of $15,600. The initial bottoming signals, however, had appeared months earlier. Q4: How reliable are historical parallels in predicting Bitcoin’s price? While history does not repeat exactly, it often rhymes. Past cycles provide frameworks for understanding market psychology and structural phases. On-chain data offers objective evidence of similar investor behavior, but it is not a guaranteed predictor of future prices. Q5: What other indicators should investors watch to confirm a market bottom? Beyond the models cited, investors monitor exchange net flows (indicating accumulation or distribution), the percentage of supply in profit/loss, and long-term holder behavior. A sustained trend of coins moving off exchanges into cold storage is a particularly strong confirmatory signal. This post Bitcoin Bottom Signals a Strategic Buying Opportunity: Analyst Urges Incremental Investment first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
24 Feb 2026, 14:30
Bitcoin Dominance To Experience Major Crash? Pundit Shares What This Would Mean
Technical analysis of the BTC.D chart is pointing to a tip in balance that might lead to a crash in Bitcoin’s crypto market cap dominance. Analysts on X are pointing to signals on the Bitcoin dominance chart that could precede a sharp downward move, one that could have a massive effect on how liquidity rotates into the altcoin market. The latest outlook came from crypto analyst Cryptoinsightuk, who highlighted the current state of the weekly Bollinger Bands indicator on the BTC.D chart as a reason why BTC’s dominance is about to experience a massive crash. Weekly Bollinger Bands Flash 2017-Style Setup According to CryptoInsightsuk, the current compression and positioning of the Bollinger bands resemble conditions seen in March 2017, a period that preceded a rapid decline in Bitcoin dominance and the start of a powerful altcoin rally season. The weekly candlestick chart shows Bitcoin dominance pressing near the mid-to-upper Bollinger Band region around 59%, with the bands now tightening. In previous cycles, particularly in 2017, a similar band structure led to a high-velocity crash that pushed BTC’s dominance downwards for many weeks. This is visible in the grey zone labelled in the chart below as the “Previous ALT Season Start Point.” According to the analyst, this tightening of Bollinger Bands is expected to result in a downward move that pushes the BTC dominance to the mid-30%. This is highlighted in the chart below as a target range between 30% and 35%, with a mid-level of 33.5%. Liquidity Rotation And The Altcoin Effect Another crypto analyst known as Bird responded to the analysis with a note that charts are pointing to a violent move down in Bitcoin dominance. As noted by the analyst, violent downward moves in BTC.D have always coincided with aggressive liquidity rotation into altcoins. A quick drop in Bitcoin’s market share is due to more capital flowing into the altcoin market than into BTC. In the analyst’s view, once dominance breaks convincingly, major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and XRP will start to gain meaningful market share. Bird specifically noted that XRP may be positioned for a strong move through March and beyond, citing reasons of ongoing infrastructure development tied to Ripple’s ecosystem. That said, predictions of a crash in BTC dominance are not new. Market participants have been anticipating the start of a full-scale altcoin season for the past several months. However, Bitcoin’s dominance has held steady , even during periods of price crashes. This is because periods of outflows from Bitcoin have always led to corresponding outflows from other cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is currently at 57.7%, down by 1.34% in the past 24 hours. A breakout above the prior alt-season start zone in the 60% range could invalidate the bearish thesis and extend Bitcoin’s control further into 2026.
24 Feb 2026, 14:29
Bitcoin's Quantum Rigidity Is Ethereum's Biggest Bull Case
Summary Ethereum is positioned for a bullish move, supported by whale accumulation and a record-high TVL. ETH-USD's long-term ascending channel targets $6,442, contingent on holding multi-year support and reclaiming the $3,122 resistance. Ethereum's proactive quantum readiness and governance flexibility contrast with Bitcoin's rigidity, attracting smart money rotation from BTC to ETH. Risks include premature quantum threats, market-wide selloffs, or Bitcoin achieving consensus before quantum disruption, potentially delaying ETH's upside trajectory. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Mary Muthoni as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more » Ethereum (ETH-USD) appears to be on a bullish path, charted by Bitcoin's rigidity to evolve to the threat of quantum computing. On-chain data shows whales are accumulating at the same time that ETH's Total Value Locked ((TVL)) is at record highs. The monthly chart also shows an accumulation channel with a target of $6,442, and Bitcoin's governance crisis may accelerate the timeline within which ETH hits this price. Whales Snub Bitcoin, Turn to Ethereum Amid Quantum Fears The debate around the threat that quantum computing poses to cryptographic technology is dominating crypto discussions. In fact, macro analyst Willy Woo said that it is because of these fears that gold has been outperforming Bitcoin. The entire crypto industry is facing the quantum threat, but Bitcoin is a unique case. Unlike Ethereum, which has already announced "quantum readiness" as one of its 2026 priorities, Bitcoin has remained rigid. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju calls it the "social consensus dilemma," stating that any attempt to upgrade the network may be met with a chain-splitting fork. On-chain data now shows that whales, or smart money, may have bought into this fear and are reducing their exposure to Bitcoin and flocking to Ethereum. Per CryptoQuant, the Realized Cap for Ethereum Accumulating Addresses is tipping north. This metric is used to show the cost basis at which addresses bought Ethereum. It filters out the noise by measuring the value of ETH at the price it last moved on-chain. For instance, if an address bought ETH last year at $4,000, the realized cap uses this price and not the current market price. As seen in the chart below, the realized cap is rising, indicating that long-term holders are buying at lower prices following an over 30% monthly drop in ETH price. ETH Accumulating Addresses - Realized Cap (CryptoQuant) Interestingly, this metric is always tipping north despite sharp rallies or pullbacks in Ethereum price. It shows the resilience of long-term holders, causing the supply to shift gradually to stronger hands. This supports Ethereum's long-term bullishness because if the demand returns, a massive jump will happen. In contrast, Santiment's wallet data shows Bitcoin whales and sharks are diverging. The on-chain analytics platform noted that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have sold 0.8% of their holdings in four months. In the same period, smaller wallets with less than 0.1 BTC have increased their holdings by 2.5%. Bitcoin Supply Distribution (Santiment) When it comes to Ethereum's supply distribution, the reverse is happening. Small retail wallets holding between 1 and 10 ETH have reacted to volatility, with their holdings declining sharply after selling 40,000 ETH in the last week. Meanwhile, whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have accumulated 160,000 ETH within the same period. Ethereum Supply Distribution (Santiment) Ethereum's network metrics also support its bull case. According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum has reached 30M ETH in TVL for the first time in history. On January 20, this metric was at 23.08M. That means that in a month, the TVL has grown by 6.92M ETH, worth over $13 billion at the ETH price of $1,892 at press time. Ethereum TVL (DeFiLlama) This rise indicates that users are staking more Ethereum or using it on protocols created on the network. When demand on the network is rising, it means there is less ETH circulating on exchanges. If spot demand increases in this scenario, the price will be more reactive to an uptrend. Ascending Channel Shows Bullish Path is Intact Despite 60% Dip Zooming out on Ethereum's chart on a higher timeframe shows a long-term ascending channel that started in mid-2022 and is still continuing today despite a 60% fall from last year's peak. At its current price, ETH is testing support at the lower trendline of this channel, and it needs to make a monthly close above it to confirm that this bullish trend is intact. Considering that there is currently no breakdown below the lower boundary, the recent drop is Ethereum testing a multi-year support level. If it holds, an upward trend within this channel could begin again past the previous all-time high of $4,953. The Fibonacci levels show that the main target of this channel is $6,442, depicted by the 161.8% Fibonacci level. However, this rally will not happen overnight, and there are several hurdles that Ethereum will have to overcome first. One is the 20-day SMA level of $2,922. The other is resistance at the 61.8% Fib of $3,122. ETH/USDT - 1-Month Chart (TradingView) This ascending channel also shows accumulation and distribution phases. Accumulation started in mid-2022, and ETH peaked at a record high in August 2025. The reversal from this peak is characterized by high selling pressure, as shown by the volume bars. For Ethereum to actualize the bull case made by this ascending channel, support at the lower boundary needs to hold. On the derivatives front, whales appear to be positioning themselves for an upswing. This is because the Ethereum Whale vs. Retail delta on CoinGlass has been predominantly positive since mid-January. This indicator is used to show gaps between whale and retail long positioning. When it is positive like it is now, it shows that whales have more long positions than retail, which is another sign that whales are bullish. Ethereum Whale vs. Retail Delta (CoinGlass) Bitcoin's Quantum Problem Supports Ethereum's Bull Case Ethereum has already taken several measures to make sure that Q-Day (a name used to describe the day that quantum computing becomes a reality) will have no major impact on the network. In its protocol priorities update for 2026, the Ethereum Foundation said quantum preparedness was among the issues it would address. In January, Ethereum also launched a $2 million defense team that will be dedicated to research, development, and infrastructure testing. These measures are not unexpected considering that Ethereum underwent an entire change in its consensus model in 2022 following The Merge. However, in Bitcoin's case, observers note that change may not come easily. Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz opined that a fork to make the network quantum-proof will be necessary; otherwise, Bitcoin will collapse. "Bitcoin will, at some point, need a fork to be quantum proof. I guess that will be at least one case where technological changes will be necessary, or bitcoin will collapse," he said. Even CryptoQuant's CEO admits that it is difficult to achieve consensus in the Bitcoin community. This is evidenced by Bitcoin maxi Michael Saylor's speech during Strategy's Q4 earnings call . He stated that quantum was one of the many threats that had never materialized against Bitcoin. Per Saylor, "I would note that the quantum computing concern and quantum FUD is just the latest in a long litany and a parade of horrible FUD that has been taking place since the beginning of Bitcoin." These diverging opinions make the bull case for Ethereum by showing its readiness and flexibility to evolve in the face of potential threats. If the quantum threat becomes a reality, the path towards $6,442 might be charted. Risk to the Bullish Thesis There are three risks to this bullish thesis. The first is that Ethereum might be hit by the quantum threat before it completes upgrading its network. This would happen if the risk arrives sooner than the expected timeline of between five and ten years. The second risk is that even if quantum arrives when Ethereum is ready, the entire market will be shaken. The macro selloff that will come from a fearful sentiment will likely drown all risk assets, including Ethereum. Thirdly, the Bitcoin community might still arrive at a consensus, albeit slower. Doing this before the quantum threat arrives will hinder any capital rotation from BTC to ETH. Hence, it might take longer for Ethereum to surge within its ascending channel. Therefore, as the crypto market debates about when quantum arrives, its impact on the market, and what it will mean for lost coins, smart money may be positioning for a situation where Ethereum wins the race. With an ascending channel feeding the bull case and network activity improving, a fresh all-time high for ETH may be within sight.
24 Feb 2026, 14:24
XRPL Payments Spike 200% Despite XRP's Market Downturn
XRP Ledger sees some serious price growth, but at the same time, the asset's market performance is not even remotely positive.
24 Feb 2026, 14:22
Binance brings back tokenized stocks trading with Ondo Finance deal
The world’s largest crypto exchange has listed a batch of tokenized U.S. equities issued by Ondo Finance on its Binance Alpha platform, reviving stock trading push.
24 Feb 2026, 14:22
KMNO Technical Analysis February 24, 2026: Weekly Strategy
KMNO experienced a 9% weekly drop in the downtrend, $0,0231 support is critical. There is bounce potential with RSI oversold, but BTC bearishness increases altcoin risk.
