hodler

24 Feb 2026, 06:00

History Repeating? XRP Flashes Signal Last Seen Before Explosive 60,000% Rally

XRP is on track to close its fifth consecutive month in negative territory, a rare stretch of sustained losses that has not been seen since late 2016. Despite holding at around $1.30, the token has declined nearly 30% in February alone, according to CoinGecko data, extending a broader five-month decline of roughly 50%. XRP Flashes Pre-Bull Run Pattern The last time XRP recorded five straight red monthly candles was between October 2016 and February 2017. During that period, the price slipped from $0.00885 to $0.00557, a decline of 37%, before finding a bottom near $0.0055 in March 2017. By May 2017, XRP had surged to $0.3988 — a gain of 7,000% in just two months. After consolidating through the summer, the token climbed again, eventually reaching $3.31 in January 2018. From its March 2017 low, that marked a 60,000% increase. Related Reading: Ready For A 443% Dogecoin Move? The Meme Coin Just Touched A Historically Explosive Level With XRP now following a similar path, market analyst Sam Daodu examined the comparison in a new report released on Monday. Daodu noted that the current setup “rhymes” with the 2016–2017 structure: five consecutive months of declines, tightening price action, and signs that selling pressure may be exhausting itself. However, he cautioned that the market environment has changed dramatically since XRP was “a micro‑cap token. In 2017, XRP’s total market value was less than $300 million. Daodu pointed out that at that level, even a few hundred million dollars in new capital might raise the price by thousands of percentage points. Today, XRP has a market capitalization of about $88 billion. According to the analyst, this scale makes a 60,000% surge virtually impossible under any realistic market conditions. 250% Rally Still In Play A comparable rally would imply a move to roughly $852 per token. With approximately 58 billion XRP in circulation, that would translate to a market capitalization exceeding $49 trillion — more than the combined value of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Still, Daodu argues that while a repeat of the 2017 explosion is off the table, a meaningful recovery remains within reach if the bottoming pattern holds. A return to XRP’s July 2025 high of $3.65 would represent a gain of about 157% from current levels. A move toward $5 — near the upper range of analyst forecasts for 2026 — would amount to a 252% increase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Spree Nears Century Mark, Saylor Hints Even more conservative projections suggest room for upside. Standard Chartered recently reduced its XRP target by 65%, citing near‑term headwinds, but its revised forecast of $2.80 would still imply a roughly 97% rise from current trading prices. The key difference in this cycle, according to Daodu, lies in the source of demand. The explosive rally of 2017 was largely driven by retail speculation. In contrast, any substantial gains this time would likely depend on institutional flows, including potential exchange‑traded fund (ETF) inflows, broader institutional adoption, and a recovery across the wider crypto market. While another 60,000% run is unrealistic, Daodu believes a 150% to 250% advance is achievable if momentum shifts and capital returns to the sector. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

24 Feb 2026, 06:00

AUD/JPY Forecast: Soars Above 109.50 as Bullish Technicals Signal Potential Breakout

BitcoinWorld AUD/JPY Forecast: Soars Above 109.50 as Bullish Technicals Signal Potential Breakout The AUD/JPY currency pair has surged above the critical 109.50 level in early 2025 trading, marking a significant technical development that forex traders globally are monitoring closely for potential continuation patterns. This movement represents the highest exchange rate between the Australian dollar and Japanese yen since November 2023, according to trading data from major financial platforms. Market analysts now examine whether this breakthrough signals a sustained bullish trend or represents a temporary overshoot in the volatile currency markets. AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Breaking Through Key Resistance Technical indicators overwhelmingly support the current bullish outlook for AUD/JPY following its ascent above 109.50. The pair has established a clear higher-high pattern on daily charts throughout January 2025, breaking through multiple resistance levels that previously contained upward movement. Furthermore, the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average in December 2024, creating what technical analysts call a “golden cross” signal that typically precedes extended bullish trends. Several key technical factors contribute to this optimistic assessment. First, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 68, indicating strong buying momentum without reaching overbought territory. Second, trading volume has increased by approximately 42% compared to December averages, suggesting institutional participation in the move. Third, Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2024 low of 104.20 to the current high show the pair has broken through the 61.8% retracement level, a critical threshold for trend continuation. Chart Patterns and Momentum Indicators Multiple chart patterns reinforce the technical bullish case. A clear ascending triangle formation developed between October 2024 and January 2025, with the breakout occurring precisely at the 109.50 level. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows strong positive momentum, with the MACD line well above the signal line and both trending upward. Bollinger Band analysis reveals the pair trading near the upper band, confirming strong directional movement while maintaining within normal volatility parameters. Fundamental Drivers Behind AUD/JPY Movement Beyond technical factors, fundamental economic developments in both Australia and Japan create the underlying conditions supporting AUD/JPY strength. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a relatively hawkish stance in its December 2024 meeting, citing persistent services inflation and strong employment figures. Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.2% in November 2024, while quarterly GDP growth surprised to the upside at 0.8% according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Conversely, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-accommodative monetary policy despite recent inflation readings. Japan’s core inflation measured 2.7% year-over-year in December 2024, but the central bank maintains negative interest rates and yield curve control policies. This monetary policy divergence creates what forex analysts term “carry trade attractiveness,” where investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding Australian assets. Commodity Price Influence on Australian Dollar Australia’s status as a major commodity exporter significantly impacts AUD valuation. Iron ore prices, Australia’s largest export, have increased by 18% since October 2024, reaching $142 per metric ton in January 2025. Similarly, copper prices have risen 12% during the same period, while thermal coal exports remain robust despite global energy transitions. These commodity price movements directly support Australian dollar strength through improved trade balance figures and corporate earnings. Historical Context and Market Psychology The current AUD/JPY level represents a significant psychological milestone for currency traders. The 110.00 level has served as major resistance on three separate occasions since 2022, creating what technical analysts describe as a “triple top” pattern that the pair is now attempting to break decisively. Historical data from the past decade shows that sustained moves above 110.00 typically precede extended trends, with the pair reaching 115.50 in 2018 and 118.00 in 2014 during previous bullish cycles. Market positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals that speculative net long positions on AUD/JPY have increased for six consecutive weeks. Hedge funds and institutional investors have accumulated their largest bullish position since March 2023, according to weekly Commitment of Traders reports. This positioning suggests professional traders anticipate further appreciation, though it also raises concerns about crowded trades if sentiment suddenly reverses. Risk Sentiment and Global Market Correlation AUD/JPY traditionally functions as a barometer for global risk appetite in currency markets. The pair exhibits strong positive correlation with equity indices, particularly the S&P 500 and Australia’s ASX 200. Recent strength in global equities, with the MSCI World Index gaining 4.2% in January 2025, provides additional support for AUD/JPY appreciation. Furthermore, volatility indices like the VIX have declined to pre-pandemic levels, indicating reduced market fear that typically benefits risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar. Potential Resistance Levels and Trading Scenarios Traders now monitor several key resistance levels that could determine the pair’s near-term trajectory. The immediate psychological barrier sits at 110.00, followed by technical resistance at 110.85 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level). Beyond these points, the 2023 high of 112.25 represents the next significant challenge for bullish momentum. Support levels have also shifted higher, with former resistance at 109.50 now potentially serving as support, followed by the 108.20 level where the 50-day moving average currently resides. Analysts outline three primary scenarios for AUD/JPY in the coming weeks: Bullish Continuation: Sustained break above 110.00 targeting 112.25 Consolidation Phase: Range-bound trading between 109.50 and 110.85 Correction Scenario: Pullback to test 108.20 support before resuming uptrend Seasonal Patterns and Economic Calendar Events Historical seasonal analysis reveals that AUD/JPY typically experiences strength during the first quarter, with an average gain of 2.1% in February over the past decade. This pattern aligns with Australia’s agricultural export season and Japan’s fiscal year-end adjustments. Upcoming economic events that could impact the pair include Australia’s Q4 2024 CPI data release on January 29, the Bank of Japan policy meeting on January 31, and Australia’s employment report on February 15. These events may create volatility around the current technical levels. Expert Perspectives and Institutional Analysis Major financial institutions have adjusted their AUD/JPY forecasts following the technical breakout. Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s currency strategy team now projects the pair reaching 111.50 by mid-2025, citing improving Australian terms of trade and sustained monetary policy divergence. Similarly, Nomura Securities’ Tokyo-based forex analysts have revised their quarterly target to 110.80, emphasizing Japan’s persistent current account surplus that typically limits yen appreciation during risk-on periods. Independent technical analysts offer more nuanced perspectives. Veteran chart analyst Marcus Chen, author of “Asian Forex Patterns,” notes that while the breakout appears genuine, confirmation requires a weekly close above 110.00. Meanwhile, risk management specialists emphasize position sizing given the pair’s historical volatility of 12.5% annually, suggesting traders maintain appropriate stop-loss levels below recent swing lows. Comparative Analysis with Other Yen Crosses AUD/JPY’s performance must be contextualized within broader yen weakness. The Japanese currency has depreciated against most major counterparts in early 2025, with USD/JPY approaching 152.00 and EUR/JPY testing 165.00. This suggests that yen-specific factors, rather than Australian dollar strength alone, contribute significantly to AUD/JPY appreciation. The Bank of Japan’s yield curve control adjustments in December 2024 failed to strengthen the yen substantially, indicating market skepticism about imminent policy normalization. Conclusion The AUD/JPY forecast remains decidedly bullish as the pair sustains its position above the critical 109.50 level, supported by converging technical indicators and fundamental economic divergences. Multiple timeframe analysis confirms the breakout’s validity, while institutional positioning and historical patterns suggest potential for further appreciation toward 112.25 resistance. However, traders should monitor upcoming economic data releases and maintain disciplined risk management, as crowded long positions and key psychological barriers at 110.00 could trigger volatility. The AUD/JPY technical outlook ultimately reflects broader themes of monetary policy divergence and global risk appetite that will continue influencing currency markets throughout 2025. FAQs Q1: What does AUD/JPY breaking above 109.50 mean for traders? The breakout above 109.50 represents a significant technical development that suggests bullish momentum may continue. Traders typically view such breaks above key resistance levels as potential buying opportunities, though confirmation through sustained trading above this level and increased volume strengthens the signal. Q2: How do interest rate differentials affect AUD/JPY? Interest rate differentials fundamentally drive AUD/JPY valuation through carry trade dynamics. Australia’s higher interest rates compared to Japan’s negative rates make borrowing yen to invest in Australian assets attractive, creating demand for AUD and upward pressure on the exchange rate. Q3: What are the main risks to the bullish AUD/JPY forecast? Primary risks include sudden shifts in global risk sentiment, unexpected monetary policy changes from either central bank, deterioration in Australia’s commodity export prices, or technical reversal patterns forming at key resistance levels near 110.00-110.85. Q4: How does AUD/JPY correlate with commodity prices? AUD/JPY exhibits strong positive correlation with Australia’s major export commodities, particularly iron ore, copper, and coal. Rising commodity prices improve Australia’s terms of trade, supporting Australian dollar strength against most currencies including the yen. Q5: What timeframes are most relevant for AUD/JPY technical analysis? Traders typically analyze multiple timeframes simultaneously. Daily charts identify primary trends, 4-hour charts determine entry and exit timing, and weekly charts provide broader context. The current bullish signal appears strongest on daily and weekly timeframes. This post AUD/JPY Forecast: Soars Above 109.50 as Bullish Technicals Signal Potential Breakout first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 05:59

Ethereum is Sitting at 5-year ‘Demand Zone’ According to Analysts

“Ethereum is sitting at a 5-year demand zone,” said analyst Merlijn The Trader on Monday. “Historically, this range has been accumulation, not distribution,” he added. Ether prices are currently back at April 2025 levels, where it crashed briefly below $1,500. They are also back to long-term lows between July 2022 and November 2023, which was a deep bear market and accumulation zone. However, they could wallow around this level for months yet. Nevertheless, the analyst remains confident that “momentum is building for a potential explosive run.” ETHEREUM IS SITTING AT A 5-YEAR DEMAND ZONE. Perfect entries don’t exist. Historically, this range has been accumulation, not distribution. You don’t need the exact bottom. You need exposure before expansion. Big bases don’t drift. They reprice. pic.twitter.com/0TQ23J2Lnx — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 23, 2026 Ethereum is a long-term investment Investor ‘StockTrader Max’ said that Ethereum is no longer a “get rich quick” asset that turned early holders into millionaires overnight. They also observed that ETH was still in a five-year accumulation zone. “If you own ETH to make a lot of money by next week or month, then you will likely be disappointed. Ethereum is an asset that should be held in many portfolios with a time horizon of years and NOT months.” Fellow analyst ‘Sykodelic’ identified a “nice hidden bullish divergence printed on the weekly chart.” A hidden bullish divergence is when the RSI (relative strength index) makes a lower low, but the price makes a higher low. “It means that momentum was actually stronger, but price absorbed it better,” they said before adding: “The last time this happened, ETH rallied 100%.” “Crypto has a lot of tailwinds, but the price action is terrible,” said Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. His Ethereum DAT BitMine continues to buy the dip and stake , adding a further 51,162 ETH over the past week, according to a Monday update. “In the midst of this ‘mini crypto winter,’ our focus continues to be on methodically executing our treasury strategy and steadily acquiring ETH and, in turn, optimizing the yield on our ETH holdings,” he said. ETH Price Dips Again Ether could not hold above $1,900 and has fallen back to $1,830 at the time of writing during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session. The asset is now not far away from its Feb. 6 low and does not appear to be ready for a move to the upside yet, despite all of the positive fundamentals. The post Ethereum is Sitting at 5-year ‘Demand Zone’ According to Analysts appeared first on CryptoPotato .

24 Feb 2026, 05:55

Gold Price Stalls Below Monthly Peak as Resilient Dollar and Fed Uncertainty Create Market Tension

BitcoinWorld Gold Price Stalls Below Monthly Peak as Resilient Dollar and Fed Uncertainty Create Market Tension Global gold markets entered a cautious phase this week as the precious metal struggled to reclaim recent monthly highs, with prices remaining depressed amid a strengthening US dollar and conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about future monetary policy direction. The yellow metal’s performance reflects broader financial market tensions as investors weigh inflation concerns against interest rate expectations. Gold Price Faces Downward Pressure from Dollar Strength The US dollar index climbed to its highest level in three weeks, creating significant headwinds for dollar-denominated gold. Typically, a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing international demand. Market data shows the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold remained firmly intact throughout the trading session. Several factors contributed to the dollar’s resilience. First, recent economic indicators from the United States showed unexpected strength in manufacturing and services sectors. Second, geopolitical tensions in several regions increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency. Third, comparative weakness in other major currencies, particularly the euro and Japanese yen, enhanced the dollar’s relative appeal. Historical analysis reveals that gold-dollar correlations have strengthened since 2023. During periods of dollar appreciation exceeding 2% over a month, gold has typically declined by 1.5-3%. Current market conditions suggest this historical pattern continues to influence trader behavior significantly. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook Creates Market Uncertainty Mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials created confusion about the central bank’s future interest rate path. While some policymakers emphasized the need for continued vigilance against inflation, others expressed concerns about overtightening and its potential impact on economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent minutes revealed ongoing debates about the appropriate timing for policy adjustments. Key discussion points included: Inflation persistence: Concerns about service sector inflation remaining above target levels Labor market balance: Assessment of whether employment conditions justify maintaining current rates Financial stability: Monitoring of banking sector resilience to higher interest rates Global economic linkages: Consideration of international economic developments This policy uncertainty affects gold through multiple channels. Higher interest rates typically reduce gold’s appeal because the metal pays no yield, making interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive. However, if rate hikes trigger economic concerns, gold may benefit from its safe-haven status. Expert Analysis of Gold Market Dynamics Market analysts point to several technical and fundamental factors influencing gold’s current position. The $2,150 per ounce level has emerged as a critical resistance point, with the metal testing this barrier multiple times in recent weeks without sustained breakthrough. “Gold faces competing forces in the current environment,” explains senior commodities analyst Michael Chen. “On one hand, central bank buying continues to provide underlying support. On the other hand, ETF outflows and reduced speculative positioning reflect short-term caution among institutional investors.” Central bank activity deserves particular attention. According to World Gold Council data, global central banks added approximately 800 metric tons to reserves during the first three quarters of 2024. This represents a continuation of the diversification trend that began following geopolitical developments in 2022. Gold Price Influencing Factors (Current Assessment) Factor Direction Strength Expected Duration US Dollar Strength Negative Strong Short-Medium Term Fed Policy Uncertainty Mixed Moderate Immediate Term Central Bank Buying Positive Moderate Long Term Inflation Expectations Positive Moderate Medium Term Geopolitical Tensions Positive Variable Uncertain Technical Analysis Reveals Key Price Levels Chart analysis indicates gold remains within a defined trading range established over the past two months. The upper boundary sits near $2,180 per ounce, while support appears around $2,080. Moving averages show a convergence pattern, suggesting potential for a significant price movement once this consolidation phase concludes. Several technical indicators warrant monitoring. First, the relative strength index currently reads 52, indicating neutral momentum. Second, trading volume patterns show decreased activity near resistance levels. Third, options market data reveals increased hedging activity at specific strike prices, suggesting institutional preparation for potential volatility. Seasonal patterns also influence gold’s performance. Historical data indicates that March typically shows mixed results for gold, with no strong directional bias. However, the period from April through June has historically provided more favorable conditions, particularly when inflation concerns dominate market sentiment. Comparative Asset Performance Context Understanding gold’s position requires examining its performance relative to alternative assets. While gold has retreated from recent highs, it has significantly outperformed many equity sectors year-to-date. This relative strength suggests continued investor interest in diversification despite short-term price pressures. Real interest rates—nominal rates minus inflation expectations—remain a crucial gold price determinant. Current calculations show real rates in slightly positive territory, which traditionally creates headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold. However, any shift toward negative real rates would likely provide substantial support. Cryptocurrency markets present an interesting comparison. While digital assets like Bitcoin have gained attention as alternative stores of value, their correlation with traditional risk assets has increased recently. Gold maintains its distinctive profile with lower correlations to both equities and fixed income, preserving its portfolio diversification benefits. Global Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals International developments contribute to gold’s complex price dynamics. Chinese economic indicators show mixed signals, with manufacturing recovery offset by property sector challenges. As the world’s largest gold consumer, China’s economic health significantly impacts physical demand patterns. European Central Bank policy decisions also affect global gold markets. Recent statements suggest a more cautious approach to rate cuts than previously anticipated. This policy divergence with the Federal Reserve influences currency cross-rates and, consequently, gold pricing in different regions. Geopolitical developments continue to support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Multiple conflict zones remain active, while trade tensions between major economies persist. These conditions typically increase demand for assets perceived as stores of value during uncertain times. Industrial demand components deserve mention. While investment demand dominates short-term price movements, industrial and jewelry applications provide important baseline support. Technology sector demand has shown particular resilience, with gold remaining essential for electronics manufacturing despite material substitution efforts. Conclusion Gold prices face continued pressure below monthly highs as dollar strength and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty create challenging market conditions. The precious metal’s performance reflects competing forces: supportive factors like central bank buying and geopolitical tensions versus negative influences including dollar appreciation and interest rate concerns. Market participants should monitor upcoming economic data releases, particularly inflation indicators and employment reports, which will likely determine the Federal Reserve’s policy path and consequently influence gold’s near-term direction. The gold price remains sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations and currency market dynamics, maintaining its traditional role as both inflation hedge and safe-haven asset during periods of financial market uncertainty. FAQs Q1: Why does a stronger US dollar typically push gold prices lower? A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, reducing international demand. Since global gold trades in US dollars, dollar appreciation increases the effective price for non-dollar investors, potentially decreasing purchases. Q2: How do Federal Reserve interest rate decisions affect gold markets? Higher interest rates generally reduce gold’s appeal because the metal pays no yield, making interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive. However, if rate hikes trigger economic concerns or market volatility, gold may benefit from its safe-haven status despite the interest rate environment. Q3: What role do central banks play in today’s gold market? Central banks have become significant gold buyers in recent years, adding to reserves for diversification and geopolitical reasons. This institutional demand provides important support to gold prices, particularly during periods of weaker investment demand from other sectors. Q4: How does inflation influence gold investment decisions? Gold traditionally serves as an inflation hedge because its value typically maintains purchasing power when currency values decline. During high inflation periods, investors often increase gold allocations to protect against eroding asset values, though this relationship can vary depending on interest rate conditions. Q5: What technical price levels are traders watching for gold? Market participants monitor several key levels: resistance around $2,180 per ounce, support near $2,080, and the psychologically important $2,150 level that has repeatedly acted as a barrier. Breaking through these levels with conviction often signals the next directional move. This post Gold Price Stalls Below Monthly Peak as Resilient Dollar and Fed Uncertainty Create Market Tension first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

24 Feb 2026, 05:48

JASMY Technical Analysis 24 February 2026: Weekly Strategy

JASMY is experiencing consolidation within the downtrend; 0.0055$ support is critical. BTC bearishness is increasing altcoin risk, position traders should be cautious.

24 Feb 2026, 05:45

XRP Now Averaging 2.5M Daily Successful Payments, up from 1.5M Last Quarter

The XRP Ledger has now begun averaging 2.5 million daily successful payments, representing a marked uptick from the previous 1.5 million figure last quarter. XRP's price action has been unfavorable to the average investor since the fourth quarter of 2025. Visit Website