Invest ideasNews
23 Feb 2026, 10:46
BTC Closes Below $69,000 Weekly: Bulls Done or Relief Ahead? (Feb 23 Update)
A weekly close below the $69K major horizontal level has either confirmed that the next leg down in the Bitcoin bear market is about to begin, or it is yet another flush-out of investors who are desperately hanging in there. Is a recovery still possible from such a position, or was this the death knell? Sentiment at all-time low Source: Alternative.me According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at Alternative.me , the crypto market is in Extreme Fear right now, at a reading of 5. Only once before in the life of this index did the market sentiment come down as low as 5, and this was at the end of August 2019 when the $BTC price was on its way back down to a bear market double bottom. Lower highs and lows Source: TradingView Does the short-term time frame agree with the joint lowest market sentiment on record? The $BTC price did fail to get back to the major horizontal support, and made a lower high in the process. The drop then took the price down to a lower low. If these are signs of weakening before a further big correction , then there is probably good reason for the terrible sentiment. That said, as the two small descending channels illustrate in the chart above, this could also be a period of absorption of the very rapid descent which has taken the price from the very top to around half of its value in less than 5 months. Bearish descending triangle emerges Source: TradingView Moving out into the daily time frame another pattern emerges. This time it’s a descending triangle. Not a bullish pattern, but it remains to be seen in which direction the price will go. The majority of times, price would fall through the bottom of a descending triangle, so bulls need to be very aware of this. It can be seen that the bottom of the triangle corresponds quite closely to the horizontal support level at $65,500. If the pattern does play out to the downside, the full extent of the measured move would be to $58,300, which would make a lower low, but also another potential attempt at a double bottom. Lower end of current range is $53,000 Source: TradingView The 2-week chart shows precisely what the bulls are up against. A candle body has clearly opened below the major horizontal level at $69,000. In the weekly time frame it’s absolutely apparent that a candle body has closed below this level, so it is for this reason that $69,000 is now labelled as resistance, although in the 2-week time frame there is still the possibility of what would be an incredibly bullish close above this level. The $BTC price has the rest of this week in which to accomplish this. Going back to the more probable scenario of a continuation into the bear market, or a potential bottoming process, if one looks left, the entirety of the 8-month bull flag is the range the price is descending into. The price entered this when it passed $69,000, and the bottom of the range is marked by the horizontal support line at $53,000, which also happens to be the exact extent of the measured move out of the bear flag . It could be that the $BTC price spends a few more weeks bouncing between the support and resistance levels formed by that long bull flag, plus the double tops of the 2021 bull market. On the other hand, gold and silver are probably due to rise again . Will Bitcoin just sit there as the metals soar skywards? This doesn’t seem a very likely scenario. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
23 Feb 2026, 10:42
The Fastest Bitcoin (BTC) Crash Is Over, But the Worst Is Yet to Come
Bitcoin fell briefly below $65,000 on Monday following US President Donald Trump’s proposal to increase global tariffs to 15%. Alongside tariff-driven uncertainty, data suggest that the asset is currently trading in a phase with maximum psychological damage to traders. BTC Enters “Psychological Torture” Phase The asset is now in Stage 4 of the cycle, following a sequence driven by liquidity dynamics, leverage positioning, and recurring patterns in investor psychology, according to the analysis by Doctor Profit. The analyst stated that Stage 1 unfolded during Bitcoin’s rally between $115,000 and $125,000, a period which witnessed euphoric sentiment, extreme buying appetite, aggressive leverage, and widespread belief that downside risk had disappeared. This phase typically ends with sideways consolidation at high levels or brief upside spikes and masks underlying market fragility. Stage 2 began when Bitcoin broke below the psychologically critical $100,000 level, triggering stress among short-term investors and leveraged traders. The move was described as fast and deliberate, designed to limit reaction time. The sharp October 10 crash was cited as a defining example that produced the largest liquidation event in crypto history within hours. Stage 3 followed as the fastest and most severe phase, which confirmed the bear market through an extreme drawdown of 38% from the all-time high. Doctor Profit described this stage as the most brutal, which saw panic and depression, as investors were unable to hedge or de-risk in time. During this period, BTC lost 50% of its market cap as a result of the rapid “mechanical repricing.” The analyst now places the market in Stage 4, a long sideways period defined by low volatility but high psychological stress. This phase is described as exhausting rather than violent, and price is expected to move within a defined range that allows market makers to generate liquidity on both sides while gradually wearing down participants. Doctor Profit characterized Stage 4 as a weak-hands selling zone, where frustration, regret, and anxiety dominate, and where most short-term holder capitulation occurs as retail investors exit at a loss after missing earlier selling opportunities. He further explained that a breakdown into Stage 5, the full capitulation phase, is more likely to occur in a few months rather than imminently, while short-term bounces within the $57,000-$60,000 range remain possible. Capitulation Before Recovery Stage 5 is projected as the most emotional phase, and is often associated with systemic stress or black swan events. Revised downside targets are now between $35,000 and $45,000 amid broader macro and liquidity concerns. The final Stage 6 would involve stabilization and structural reversal, as selling pressure fades and large players accumulate while retail investors anticipate even lower prices. Doctor Profit concluded that while the fastest downside may be over, the most damaging psychological phase has begun, which is consistent with patterns observed across previous Bitcoin cycles. The post The Fastest Bitcoin (BTC) Crash Is Over, But the Worst Is Yet to Come appeared first on CryptoPotato .
23 Feb 2026, 10:38
COMP Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?
COMP at $17.68 is trapped between critical support at $17.27 and resistance at $18.09; bull scenario could head to $28 on a $19.53 breakout, bear scenario to $5 on a $17.27 breakout. BTC downtrend ...
23 Feb 2026, 10:35
EUR/JPY Forecast: Critical Test Looms as Pair Battles 50-Day EMA Barrier Near 183.00
BitcoinWorld EUR/JPY Forecast: Critical Test Looms as Pair Battles 50-Day EMA Barrier Near 183.00 Global currency markets face a pivotal moment as the EUR/JPY exchange rate tests the crucial 50-day Exponential Moving Average barrier near the 183.00 level, creating significant implications for European and Asian traders in early 2025. This technical confrontation follows weeks of consolidation and represents a key battleground for determining the currency pair’s medium-term trajectory. Market participants closely monitor this development because the 50-day EMA often serves as a reliable indicator of trend momentum across multiple timeframes. Furthermore, the outcome of this test could influence broader risk sentiment in currency markets, particularly affecting carry trade strategies between the Eurozone and Japan. EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: The 183.00 Barrier Explained The 50-day Exponential Moving Average represents a critical technical indicator that smooths price data over approximately two trading months. Currently positioned near 183.00, this level has transformed from previous support into formidable resistance. Technical analysts emphasize that sustained movement above this barrier typically signals bullish momentum continuation. Conversely, rejection at this level often precedes further declines toward lower support zones. The EUR/JPY pair’s interaction with this indicator gains additional significance because it coincides with a psychological round number, creating a confluence zone where multiple technical factors align. Historical price action reveals that previous tests of the 50-day EMA during 2024 produced substantial market movements in subsequent sessions. Several complementary technical tools provide context for this current test. The Relative Strength Index currently hovers near neutral territory at 52, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator shows histogram bars approaching the zero line from below. Bollinger Band analysis indicates price action testing the middle band, which often corresponds with mean reversion dynamics. Volume profiles demonstrate increased trading activity around the 183.00 level, confirming its importance to market participants. These technical readings collectively suggest that the current test represents a genuine inflection point rather than routine price fluctuation. Key Technical Levels for EUR/JPY Level Type Significance 183.00 Resistance 50-day EMA & Psychological Round Number 181.50 Support Previous Swing Low & 100-day EMA 184.20 Resistance Year-to-Date High & Fibonacci Extension 180.00 Major Support Psychological Level & 200-day EMA Fundamental Drivers Behind the Current Price Action Monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan creates the fundamental backdrop for this technical confrontation. The ECB maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to its Japanese counterpart, creating natural upward pressure on the currency pair. However, recent economic data releases have introduced complexity to this narrative. Eurozone inflation figures showed unexpected moderation in January 2025, potentially delaying further ECB tightening measures. Simultaneously, Japan’s core consumer price index exceeded expectations, fueling speculation about eventual Bank of Japan policy normalization. These competing fundamental forces explain why the EUR/JPY pair has entered a consolidation phase around the 183.00 level rather than trending decisively in either direction. Global risk sentiment significantly influences this currency pair because it functions as a barometer for broader market dynamics. During risk-on periods, traders typically favor higher-yielding currencies like the Euro against funding currencies like the Yen. Recent stabilization in equity markets and commodity prices has supported moderate Euro strength. Geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific regions also affect capital flows between these currency zones. Trade balance statistics reveal that Japan’s current account surplus continues to provide underlying support for the Yen during periods of market stress. These fundamental factors collectively create the environment where technical levels like the 50-day EMA gain heightened importance for short-term price discovery. Expert Analysis: Institutional Perspectives Major financial institutions provide valuable context for understanding this technical test. Goldman Sachs currency strategists note that “the 50-day EMA has served as reliable support-turned-resistance for EUR/JPY during previous policy transition periods.” Their research indicates that decisive breaks above this level typically precede 3-5% advances over subsequent months. Meanwhile, Nomura analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring Japanese government bond yields, stating that “any sustained rise in JGB yields above 1% could fundamentally alter the carry trade dynamics supporting EUR/JPY.” Bloomberg survey data reveals that 65% of institutional traders view the 183.00 level as critical for determining next-month positioning. These professional perspectives highlight how technical levels interact with fundamental realities in currency markets. Historical Context and Pattern Recognition Historical analysis reveals meaningful patterns in how EUR/JPY interacts with its 50-day moving average. During 2023, the pair tested this indicator seven times, with five resulting in sustained moves in the direction of the break. The most significant instance occurred in June 2023 when rejection at the 50-day EMA preceded a 600-pip decline over six weeks. Conversely, a decisive break above this indicator in November 2023 initiated a 900-pip rally that lasted through January 2024. These historical precedents suggest that the current test carries substantial predictive value for medium-term direction. Seasonality patterns also provide context, as February has historically shown increased volatility for Euro-Yen crosses due to Japanese fiscal year-end positioning. Comparative analysis with other currency pairs reveals unique characteristics of EUR/JPY price action. Unlike dollar-based pairs that respond primarily to Federal Reserve policy, EUR/JPY reflects the interaction between two non-dollar central banks with distinct policy trajectories. This creates cleaner technical patterns with fewer external distortions. The currency pair’s sensitivity to global equity performance further distinguishes it from other crosses. Historical correlation studies show EUR/JPY maintains a 0.78 correlation with the MSCI World Index over rolling 90-day periods. This relationship means that technical breaks often coincide with broader market movements, amplifying their significance beyond isolated currency dynamics. Risk Management Considerations for Traders Professional traders approach technical tests like the current 50-day EMA confrontation with specific risk management protocols. Position sizing typically reduces during such inflection points because false breakouts occur frequently around major technical levels. Stop-loss placement requires particular attention, with many institutional traders using the opposite side of the 50-day EMA as their reference point. For long positions, stops often reside below 181.50, while short positions might use 184.20 as their risk threshold. Options market activity provides additional insight, with increased implied volatility around the 183.00 strike price indicating heightened uncertainty. Risk-reward ratios generally improve after confirmed breaks because failed tests often lead to rapid reversals toward opposite technical levels. Several practical trading considerations emerge from this technical setup: Confirmation Requirements: Most analysts recommend waiting for two consecutive daily closes above/below the 50-day EMA before considering the level broken Volume Validation: Breakouts accompanied by above-average trading volume carry higher reliability than low-volume moves Timeframe Alignment: The significance increases when multiple timeframes (daily, weekly) show similar technical patterns Fundamental Catalyst Watch: Scheduled economic events (CPI releases, central bank meetings) often trigger decisive breaks Conclusion The EUR/JPY forecast remains at a critical juncture as the currency pair tests the 50-day EMA barrier near 183.00. This technical confrontation represents more than routine price action, reflecting deeper fundamental tensions between European and Japanese monetary policies. Historical patterns suggest that the outcome of this test will likely determine the pair’s trajectory for the coming months. Traders should monitor confirmation signals and volume patterns while maintaining disciplined risk management. The broader implications extend beyond this specific currency cross, offering insights into global risk sentiment and central bank policy divergence. As always in currency markets, technical levels gain their true significance from the fundamental realities they represent and the market psychology they reveal. FAQs Q1: What does the 50-day EMA represent in technical analysis? The 50-day Exponential Moving Average smooths price data over approximately two trading months, serving as a key indicator for medium-term trend direction. Many traders consider prices above this level as bullish and prices below as bearish. Q2: Why is the 183.00 level particularly significant for EUR/JPY? This level represents a confluence zone where the 50-day EMA coincides with a psychological round number. Such convergences often create stronger support or resistance than either factor would individually. Q3: How do central bank policies affect EUR/JPY price action? The European Central Bank’s relatively hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative policy creates natural upward pressure on the pair. However, expectations about policy changes drive most short-term movements. Q4: What timeframes should traders monitor for confirmation of a breakout? Most analysts recommend watching daily and weekly charts for confirmation. A valid breakout typically requires sustained movement above/below the level across multiple timeframes with supporting volume. Q5: How does EUR/JPY correlate with broader market sentiment? The pair maintains strong positive correlation with global equity indices because it functions as a barometer for risk appetite. During risk-on periods, traders typically favor the Euro over the funding-currency Yen. This post EUR/JPY Forecast: Critical Test Looms as Pair Battles 50-Day EMA Barrier Near 183.00 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
23 Feb 2026, 10:24
XRP Trading Volume Rises 77% as Crypto Liquidations Reach $485 Million
A total of $485 million has been liquidated across the crypto market amid the ongoing sell-off.
23 Feb 2026, 10:22
BTC Price Model Flags 88% Chance of Rally to $122K Within 10 Months
Bitcoin could climb to $122,000 within the next ten months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson, who based his projection on historical monthly performance data dating back to 2011. Peterson shared his analysis on social platform X, noting that Bitcoin has closed 12 of the past 24 months in positive territory. Historically, this ratio has corresponded to an 88% probability that Bitcoin’s price will be higher ten months later. Based on that statistical framework, he estimates an average return of 82% from current levels, implying a price near $122,000 per coin. What the data actually shows The model measures the frequency of positive months rather than the size of gains. That distinction matters. Bitcoin could trade sideways or post modest gains, and the metric would still remain statistically favorable. Peterson describes the tool as an “informal” reversal indicator rather than a precise forecasting mechanism. It signals when probability tilts in favor of higher prices, but it does not define the speed, volatility, or magnitude of the move. At the same time, broader sentiment surveys show a largely cautious market mood. That divergence between statistical probability and trader sentiment often appears during transitional phases in crypto cycles. Bulls Stay Confident Despite Skepticism Despite recent consolidation, several major institutions maintain constructive outlooks. Analysts at Bernstein previously described the current pullback as one of the milder bearish phases in Bitcoin’s history and maintained a $150,000 target for 2026. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analysts projected substantial capital inflows into Bitcoin and equities in the near term, citing seasonal liquidity drivers and risk appetite trends. Is the model too simple for today’s market? Critics argue that Bitcoin’s structure has changed significantly since 2011. Earlier cycles were dominated by retail participation. Today, institutional flows, spot ETFs, and macroeconomic capital rotation play a larger role in price discovery. From a probabilistic standpoint, Peterson’s framework resembles coin-toss math: if an event historically occurs 50% of the time in a single trial, the probability of at least one positive outcome over multiple periods rises significantly. The mathematics may be sound, but financial markets evolve. Bitcoin in 2025 operates within a different liquidity regime than it did a decade ago. Whether the 88% historical signal remains as powerful in the institutional era is the key question investors now face. For now, the data suggests the odds lean upward. Whether price follows through toward $122,000 will depend less on history alone and more on how today’s capital flows respond in the months ahead.
