hodler

9 Apr 2026, 06:35

Don’t Be Fooled by US/Iran Ceasefire Pump: Is Bitcoin Heading to New Lows?

The American president, Donald Trump, shocked the world yesterday (April 7) when issuing a stark warning that “a whole civilization” will die, and many feared that the conflict in Iran could reach catastrophic dimensions. However, the warring sides agreed to lay down their weapons for a period of two weeks, giving investors huge relief and, of course, boosting financial and crypto markets. Bitcoin temporarily climbed above $72,500, causing some analysts to predict further gains ahead. However, others remain cautious, alerting that the conditions remain bearish and a new crash could be on the horizon. Not Out of the Woods Yet X user Ted has been quite pessimistic about BTC lately, noting that some users have challenged his predictions after the price pump following the US/Iran ceasefire. Nonetheless, he sticks to his forecast that the bear market is not over and that the asset and the entire crypto sector have yet to dump to new bottoms. “The ceasefire deal will pump the markets, but it will dump in the next weeks to new lows. Bookmark it,” he said. Ted is not the only one pointing to this potential scenario. The analyst who goes by the moniker Ameba thinks a decisive jump beyond $72K may be followed by a further resurgence to as high as $83,600. On the other hand, plunging below $71K “would look like another deviation with 65K as a magnet and possibly lower.” Another X user who commented on the topic was Aralez. They envisioned two scenarios, with the first being a push to $73,000 and then new local highs. The second possible outcome, though, is much more bearish and involves an eventual dip to $64,000. The analyst outlined April 10 as an important date for BTC’s future price performance due to the release of the US CPI data on that day. For their part, Lofty claimed that the leading cryptocurrency is nowhere near its bottom. They even envisioned a high-volume sell-off this month that could suppress the valuation to $30,000. Earlier this week, the popular market observer Ali Martinez also assumed that BTC might be on the verge of a renewed downtrend. However, he thinks that such a scenario could become a generational buying opportunity. Additional Warnings BTC experienced another pump late last week , reaching as high as $70,000, but several industry participants described it as a classic bull trap. Among them was Crypto Analyst who said: “Bull trap BTC. Don’t trust Sunday pump. Big dump incoming.” The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also suggests a pullback may follow. The ratio briefly exceeded the bearish 70 zone, indicating the price has risen too much in a short period, which is typically seen as a precursor to a move south. On the contrary, falling below 30 is interpreted as a buying opportunity. BTC RSI, Source: CryptoWaves The post Don’t Be Fooled by US/Iran Ceasefire Pump: Is Bitcoin Heading to New Lows? appeared first on CryptoPotato .

9 Apr 2026, 06:35

BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Major Exchanges

BitcoinWorld BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Major Exchanges Global cryptocurrency traders closely monitor BTC perpetual futures long/short ratios on leading exchanges as a crucial sentiment gauge for Bitcoin’s price direction in 2025. These metrics, derived from the world’s three largest platforms by open interest, provide a real-time snapshot of market positioning and potential volatility. Consequently, understanding these ratios offers valuable insights for both retail and institutional participants navigating the complex derivatives landscape. Analyzing BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Perpetual futures contracts, unlike traditional futures, lack an expiry date. This feature makes their aggregate long and short positions a powerful indicator of sustained market sentiment. The 24-hour data from Binance, OKX, and Bybit reveals a market in near-perfect equilibrium. The overall ratio shows 49.37% long positions versus 50.63% short positions. This delicate balance suggests a period of consolidation and indecision among major traders. Market analysts often interpret such tight spreads as a precursor to significant price movement, as one side eventually overwhelms the other. Exchange-specific data provides further granularity. For instance, Binance, the largest venue by volume, shows a slight bullish tilt with 50.26% long positions. Similarly, OKX displays the most optimistic aggregate stance at 50.86% long. Conversely, Bybit data indicates a marginal bearish bias, with 50.21% of positions held short. These subtle differences highlight how sentiment can vary across trading platforms due to differing user demographics and regional focuses. Therefore, a holistic view across multiple exchanges is essential for accurate analysis. Exchange Long Ratio Short Ratio Binance 50.26% 49.74% OKX 50.86% 49.14% Bybit 49.79% 50.21% Overall 49.37% 50.63% The Mechanics of Perpetual Futures and Open Interest To fully grasp the significance of long/short ratios, one must understand their foundation: open interest. Open interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as BTC perpetual futures, that have not been settled. It is a direct measure of market participation and liquidity. A rising open interest alongside a price trend typically confirms the trend’s strength. Conversely, declining open interest may signal a weakening trend or impending reversal. The data cited focuses on exchanges leading in this specific metric, ensuring the analysis captures the most influential market activity. Several key factors influence these ratios on a daily basis: Macroeconomic News: Interest rate announcements or inflation data trigger immediate repositioning. Bitcoin Network Activity: Hash rate changes or notable wallet movements affect trader confidence. Liquidation Events: Large cascading liquidations can forcibly rebalance ratios rapidly. Options Market Activity: Hedging activity in the options market often flows into futures positions. Expert Perspective on Market Sentiment Indicators Seasoned market analysts treat long/short ratios as a contrarian indicator at extremes. Historically, when the aggregate long ratio climbs significantly above 55-60%, the market often becomes over-leveraged and prone to a long squeeze. Similarly, extremely high short ratios can precipitate a short squeeze, rapidly driving prices upward. The current data, hovering close to 50%, does not signal an extreme. However, it indicates a high level of uncertainty. This environment often precedes a volatility expansion, as traders await a catalyst to establish a clearer directional bias. Furthermore, the reliability of this data has improved with enhanced transparency from major exchanges. In previous years, concerns about wash trading or misleading reporting existed. Today, platforms like Binance and OKX provide verified, real-time data feeds. This improvement allows for more accurate sentiment analysis. Institutional adoption of crypto derivatives has also increased the weight of smart money flows within these ratios. Consequently, modern readings may carry more predictive power than in the past. Historical Context and Predictive Value Examining past instances where long/short ratios reached notable divergences provides context. For example, prior to the major downturn in 2022, aggregate long ratios on perpetual futures remained stubbornly high despite weakening price action. This setup created conditions for a prolonged liquidation event. Conversely, periods of extreme fear and high short ratios, like those seen during the March 2020 crash, often marked significant buying opportunities. The current neutral reading suggests the market is not exhibiting the greed or fear associated with major turning points. It is crucial to pair ratio analysis with other on-chain and technical indicators for confirmation. Key complementary metrics include: Funding Rates: The periodic payments between longs and shorts in perpetual markets. Liquidation Heatmaps: Visualizations of price levels with high concentrations of stop-loss orders. Exchange Netflow: The movement of Bitcoin onto or off of trading platforms. When long/short ratios, funding rates, and liquidation levels align, they form a powerful multi-factor model for assessing market leverage and potential pivot points. Currently, with ratios neutral, attention shifts to funding rates and spot market flows for the next directional clue. Conclusion The analysis of BTC perpetual futures long/short ratios on Binance, OKX, and Bybit reveals a cryptocurrency derivatives market in a state of cautious equilibrium in early 2025. The overall near-50/50 split indicates a lack of strong consensus among leveraged traders, often a prelude to increased volatility. While individual exchanges show minor variations, the collective picture is one of balance. For traders, this neutral sentiment reading serves as a reminder to prioritize risk management and await clearer signals from complementary data before committing to strong directional bets. Monitoring these ratios remains an essential practice for anyone engaged in the Bitcoin futures market. FAQs Q1: What is a BTC perpetual futures long/short ratio? The ratio compares the total value of long (buy) positions to short (sell) positions held in Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts on an exchange. It is expressed as a percentage and indicates whether traders are collectively bullish or bearish. Q2: Why are Binance, OKX, and Bybit specifically highlighted? These three platforms are consistently ranked as the world’s largest cryptocurrency futures exchanges by open interest, the total number of outstanding contracts. Their data represents the most significant portion of global trading activity and liquidity. Q3: How often do these long/short ratios change? Ratios can fluctuate minute-by-minute based on live trading activity. The 24-hour ratio provides a smoothed-out snapshot that filters some noise, but real-time data is also available for tactical trading. Q4: Is a 50/50 ratio good or bad for the Bitcoin price? It is neither inherently good nor bad. A neutral ratio suggests market indecision and often low leverage extremes, which can precede a period of high volatility as traders wait for a catalyst to choose a direction. Q5: Can retail traders use this data effectively? Yes. While institutional players dominate the volume, the aggregated sentiment shown in these ratios is a valuable, freely available tool for retail traders to gauge market temperature and avoid positioning against overwhelmingly crowded trades. This post BTC Perpetual Futures Long/Short Ratios Reveal Critical Market Sentiment on Major Exchanges first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

9 Apr 2026, 06:22

XRP rangebound after modest gains as market selling pressure persists

XRP has faced persistent selling pressure, limiting recent price recovery attempts. Key support is at $1.33, with $1.28 considered critical for the trend outlook. Continue Reading: XRP rangebound after modest gains as market selling pressure persists The post XRP rangebound after modest gains as market selling pressure persists appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

9 Apr 2026, 06:19

Will Bitcoin price crash again?

Bitcoin price rallied to a weekly high of $72,698 on Tuesday on reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. However, the flagship crypto has since moved lower, and the recovery could be at risk as fresh macro pressures emerge. Bitcoin rallied 6% in less than four hours on Tuesday, mirroring the bounce in global stock markets after the warring parties reached a two-week ceasefire deal. Bitcoin’s tightening correlation with the S&P 500 futures indicated that BTC’s rally was heavily led by the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which calmed fears of a systemic supply chain shock. However, the rally stalled at the $72,000 resistance, triggering a major liquidation event in Bitcoin futures that wiped out over $150 million in long positions. Ceasefire violations can trigger panic US President Donald Trump said that Iran’s nuclear program will be deactivated in exchange for tariff and sanctions relief. However, Bitcoin bears’ resolve strengthened after US Vice President JD Vance said the ceasefire is a "fragile truce." Subsequently, reports emerged that the terms were being repeatedly violated in the Levant as Israel launched "Operation Eternal Darkness," targeting underground infrastructure against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel argues that the ceasefire with Iran does not cover its operations against Hezbollah, asserting its strategic independence, while Pakistan—which brokered the temporary pact—claims the agreement was contingent on a broader cooling of regional tensions. On April 8, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament claimed the US administration had violated the spirit of the roadmap. Iran has threatened to resume its own strikes if the offensive against its allies is not immediately halted. While a sustainable de-escalation would likely lead to lower oil prices and lessen global inflationary pressure, any sort of escalation that restarts the conflict could be equally or even more financially damaging, especially as Bitcoin’s technical structure remains fragile. Bitcoin has struggled to break past the $70,000 mark over the past week, and if this level is lost once again, it could retest the psychological support at $64,000. Fed minutes suggest rate cuts are uncertain On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from its last FOMC meeting on March 17 and 18, which ended with an 11-1 vote to keep rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. While the official narrative pointed to a potential rate cut this year, the minutes revealed a consensus to act only if inflation does not get beyond their control due to rising energy costs. Rate cuts are generally a positive catalyst for crypto, but any signs of uncertainty or news that cuts could be delayed can have the opposite effect for sensitive markets like cryptocurrencies. While some officials were visibly optimistic about imminent rate cuts, many have cautioned that the opposite might be necessary to curb stubborn price growth. This uncertainty could add another headwind for Bitcoin as it navigates a volatile period. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 75.6% probability that rates will remain at 3.5% to 3.75%. As of last check, Bitcoin price was trading a little over $70,900 after dropping 1.2% in the past 24 hours. The post Will Bitcoin price crash again? appeared first on Invezz

9 Apr 2026, 06:13

Canary Capital submits application for US-based spot PEPE ETF

Canary Capital is preparing to launch an ETF tracking Pepe’s price, despite the token trading 85% below its December 2024 all-time high.

9 Apr 2026, 06:07

Bitcoin Remains in ‘Subdued and Low-Conviction Market’ Despite Bounce: Glassnode

Bitcoin remains within a “subdued and low-conviction market environment, with weak spot activity,” reported on-chain analytics provider Glassnode on Wednesday. It added that spot trading volume “remains soft,” noting that with Binance’s 30-day relative volume still sitting below the 1.0 baseline. This highlights a “lack of strong organic demand beneath the recent stabilization in price.” BTC tapped a three-week high of $72,700 on Wednesday on the news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. However, it retreated sharply during the Thursday morning Asian trading session, falling back below $71,000 at the time of writing, and is “still inside the bear market value zone,” stated Glassnode. Bouncing in a Bear #Bitcoin bounced from $67k to $72k, but weak spot demand and softer futures activity suggest the recovery still lacks strong conviction, even as ETF flows begin to turn modestly positive. Read the full Week On-Chain https://t.co/ADIT9yu3C4 pic.twitter.com/S1T79HQ59z — glassnode (@glassnode) April 8, 2026 Expect Major Volatility Iran reportedly told mediators it will be limiting the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil prices have climbed back to $97 per barrel today. Santiment stated that we clearly saw a “buy the news” reaction when US President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire this week. However, there are so many mixed reports coming out, so “it needs to be treated more like a ‘buy the rumor’ event,” it added before warning about more “major volatility.” Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst ‘Darkfost’ observed that the number of addresses depositing Bitcoin on exchanges is “currently collapsing,” which is a “clear signal of slowing activity across the market.” Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses have plummeted to a ten-year low of around 31,000 per day on the 30-day moving average, matching 2017 activity levels and well below the annual average of 47,000, they said. “Historically, this type of sharp contraction in the number of depositing addresses tends to occur when bear markets are in advanced phases as the interest in the market gradually fades.” Crypto Market Gains Erode Total capitalization had fallen 1.3% on the day to $2.49 trillion as this week’s gains start to erode. Ethereum prices had dipped slightly to $2,180 at the time of writing, and most of the altcoins were in the red with heavier losses for XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink, and Monero. RealVision CEO Raoul Pal remained optimistic, stating, “Total global liquidity is rising, global M2 is rising, US total liquidity is rising, US M2 is rising, and China total liquidity is rising,” all of which are bullish for high-risk assets. The post Bitcoin Remains in ‘Subdued and Low-Conviction Market’ Despite Bounce: Glassnode appeared first on CryptoPotato .