hodler

9 Jun 2026, 05:43

Arthur Hayes says higher oil will force Trump into anti-AI rhetoric, crashing stocks and Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes says higher oil prices can corner Trump into attacking AI, and that kind of campaign turn could hit stocks, banks, and Bitcoin at the same time. For Arthur, it makes no sense why oil seems ignored when Trump and the IRGC keep trading threats, ships are stuck around Hormuz, the 2-year Treasury yield sits more than 0.5% above fed funds, and AI wealth flows to a small tech crowd. My theory at the outset is that I am indeed dreaming. The most important variable that exerts a reflexive effect upon the whole investing complex is the price of oil and other hydrocarbons. And while the markets may, for a blip in time, appear to negate this law, shit always comes back to bite you in the proverbial ass. Trump targets AI companies when oil prices make voters angry Arthur says Trump’s Iran war is now an election problem. Gas, food, and daily costs matter more to swing voters than speeches. Trump can keep his base, but undecided voters can punish Republicans if the Strait of Hormuz squeeze pushes essentials higher before November. Tell me the change in price of gasoline and other essential goods like food, and I will tell you who wins an election in Pax Americana. Arthur says Trump has little room to truly kill inflation now, so the fight becomes optics. Higher oil gives Trump a reason to sound open to an Iran deal. Lower oil takes away the pressure. The IRGC faces its own version because China can push Tehran when energy prices run too hot. Both the US and Iran have no incentive to meet in the middle while the price of oil is at this level. Yes, it’s up materially from pre-war levels, but it ain’t that bad yet. Regarding the rest of the commodity complex, there aren’t any large populations starving, ‌and many countries have been able to secure supplies of critical industrial commodities from other parts of the world. Data centers then become the obvious punching bag because voters already worry about power costs, local strain, and jobs. Arthur says Trump could promise limits on data center growth, AI taxes, and stimulus checks funded by tech profits. Arthur says investors may treat that talk as real. He points to Tesla ($TSLA) falling 18% intraday after Trump threatened contracts linked to Elon Musk’s business empire. South Korea also almost saw the Kospi hit limit down after AI-tax talk before officials walked it back. AI debt drains Bitcoin liquidity as giant IPOs flood the market Arthur says ChatGPT’s launch on November 30, 2022, came near FTX’s collapse, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000. Bitcoin later reached $125,000 by October 2025, but Nvidia ($NVDA) gained 11x over the same period. After that Bitcoin high, BTC fell 50%, while Nvidia rose about 10% from late 2025. AI needed huge amounts of borrowed money for chips, power, and data centers. Arthur says AI firms issued about $1.5 trillion in debt from November 2022 onward, while U.S. M2 rose by about $1.5 trillion. He says $1.3 trillion of that debt came from 2025 to now. My initial hunch is that AI sucked up all available fiat liquidity, especially of the US dollar flavor. AI, as we know it, is very capital-intensive. We must build data centers that convert electricity into intelligence. Hydrocarbons, nuclear, and renewable energy push turbines that create electricity. That electricity travels to data centers where it passes over specialized silicon chips that train models and conduct inference. Arthur lists three threats to AI: higher energy costs, giant IPO supply, and Trump’s anti-AI campaign talk. Alphabet ($GOOGL), Anthropic, and OpenAI face higher token costs if oil and gas rise. SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and lockup expiries could bring more supply than all dot-com IPOs combined. SpaceX could sell only 4% to 5% of shares at first, at a price near 100x sales, and reach $1.8 trillion. A 50% pop would put it near Amazon ($AMZN). Arthur says the float may grow 5x by early September, right as Anthropic and OpenAI eye trillion-dollar listings. There are three darts that will pierce the AI bubble. They are: higher energy costs, the inability of the market to absorb the three mega IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump’s anti-AI rhetoric. Arthur says Kevin Warsh may hold rates at the June 16-17 Fed meeting, but a hawkish hold can still hurt risk assets. Maelstrom is long U.S.-listed energy producers, out of AI stocks, and sold $HYPE, $NEAR, $WLD, and $ZEC. Arthur still holds Bitcoin and Ether, while using tactical shorts. “That leaves Bitcoin and Ether. Ether is dead but functional. I have no immediate large capital demands that require liquidation of my Ether, so it shall stay unmolested. Because ultimately, I believe that once the AI bubble pops, it will cause a financial crisis that will usher forth the Big Print, I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump,” said Arthur. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

9 Jun 2026, 05:25

Bitcoin price prediction: will CPI trigger a rally to $70K or crash to $60K?

Bitcoin has remained above $62,000 ahead of key US inflation reports this week, with traders watching whether upcoming data can determine if the recent rebound from the $60,000 area has room to continue. According to Trading Economics forecasts, the Consumer Price Index report scheduled for June 10 is expected to show headline inflation rising 0.5% month over month, slightly below April's 0.6% increase. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics expect annual CPI to accelerate to 4.2% from 3.8%, while annual core inflation is projected to reach 2.9%. Attention will quickly turn to producer prices a day later. Trading Economics data shows economists expect monthly headline Producer Price Index inflation to rise 0.6%, down from 1.4% previously, while annual producer inflation could climb to 6.4% from 6.0%. Around current levels, Bitcoin is struggling to attract strong directional flows as investors wait for fresh inflation signals. Market participants are also digesting the stronger-than-expected US labor market report released last week, which showed 172,000 nonfarm payroll additions compared with expectations of 85,000. The data pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.57% and strengthened concerns that interest rates could stay elevated for longer. Fresh projections from BNP Paribas have added to those concerns. The French bank now expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of three rate hikes from December 2026, reversing the three rate cuts delivered in 2025. BNP Paribas cited persistent inflation risks, a resilient labor market, and economic pressures linked in part to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Geopolitical developments have also remained in focus. Recent missile exchanges between Israel and Iran contributed to higher oil prices, which several market participants view as a factor that could complicate the inflation outlook ahead of this week's data releases. Bitcoin price analysis At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $62,782 after recovering from a recent slide below $60,000. The daily chart shows Bitcoin rebounding from support close to the lower Bollinger Band near $58,251. BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView. However, the price was trading below the Bollinger Band basis, or 20-day simple moving average, located around $70,279. Until buyers reclaim that level, the chart continues to show overhead resistance above current prices. Volatility has remained relatively contained despite the recent selloff. The 14-day Average True Range stands near 2,383, well below the spikes seen during earlier periods of heavy market stress. Such readings suggest traders are waiting for a catalyst rather than aggressively positioning in either direction. Data from CoinGlass provides another clue about where traders are concentrating risk. The latest 24-hour Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows one of the largest liquidity clusters sitting around the $62,200 to $62,400 range. Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass. Bitcoin recently swept through that area before stabilising, indicating that a notable amount of leveraged positioning may already have been cleared. Above the spot price, additional liquidation pockets can be seen between roughly $64,000 and $65,000, extending toward the $66,000 region. If inflation data comes in softer than expected, those levels could become short-term targets as traders move toward overhead liquidity. Some analysts have identified the $71,000 to $72,500 area as a potential resistance zone should bullish momentum strengthen later in the month. On the downside, a hotter inflation reading could bring attention back to the $62,200 area before traders reassess the larger $60,000 support region. The daily chart continues to show that zone as one of Bitcoin's most important technical levels. Institutional activity has offered some support during the recent period of uncertainty. Between June 1 and June 7, Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC for $101.3 million, increasing its holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company also lifted its dollar reserves to $1 billion after concerns emerged following its sale of 32 BTC the previous week, its first reported Bitcoin disposal since December 2022. While macroeconomic data remains the immediate focus, Strategy's latest accumulation has helped reinforce the view among some investors that demand from long-term corporate holders remains present even as traders await direction from inflation and interest-rate expectations. The post Bitcoin price prediction: will CPI trigger a rally to $70K or crash to $60K? appeared first on Invezz

9 Jun 2026, 05:25

EUR/JPY Holds Above 184.50 as Bullish Momentum Persists Despite Intervention Watch

BitcoinWorld EUR/JPY Holds Above 184.50 as Bullish Momentum Persists Despite Intervention Watch The EUR/JPY cross held steady above the 184.50 mark during early European trading on Wednesday, extending its recent bullish run even as market participants remained cautious over potential intervention from Japanese authorities. The pair’s sustained strength reflects divergent monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, though verbal warnings from Tokyo continue to cap aggressive upside moves. Technical Setup Points to Continued Upside Bias From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY has broken above key resistance levels in recent sessions, with the 184.50 zone now acting as a new support floor. The pair is trading above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, confirming the short- and medium-term bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory near 62, suggesting there is room for further gains before entering overbought conditions above 70. The next major resistance sits at the 186.00 psychological level, a region that has historically attracted selling interest. A decisive close above this threshold could open the path toward the 187.50 area, last seen in late 2024. On the downside, a break below 184.50 would shift the near-term bias to neutral, with support at 183.80 and then the 183.00 round number. Intervention Risks Loom in the Background Despite the constructive technical picture, traders remain wary of potential Japanese intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and other officials have reiterated their stance that excessive currency volatility is undesirable and that authorities are watching moves closely. The yen has weakened significantly against the euro this year, driven by the BoJ’s cautious approach to normalizing policy while the ECB maintains a relatively hawkish posture. Intervention risk typically increases when the yen weakens rapidly or when speculative positioning becomes extreme. While the pace of EUR/JPY’s advance has been steady rather than explosive, any sharp acceleration above 186.00 could trigger a verbal or direct response from Tokyo. Market participants are advised to monitor official commentary and positioning data for early warning signs. What This Means for Traders For forex traders, the current environment offers both opportunity and caution. The bullish momentum is supported by fundamentals and technicals, but the intervention overhang means that stop-loss placement and position sizing become critical. Short-term traders may look to buy dips toward 184.50 with a target near 186.00, while longer-term holders should remain alert to sudden yen strengthening if intervention materializes. The divergence between the ECB and BoJ remains the primary driver. The ECB is expected to hold rates steady or potentially hike further if inflation proves sticky, while the BoJ is likely to maintain ultra-loose policy through at least mid-2025. This policy gap favors further euro strength against the yen, barring direct intervention. Conclusion EUR/JPY’s hold above 184.50 reinforces the bullish narrative, but the path higher is not without risks. Technical indicators support further gains toward 186.00 and beyond, but the threat of Japanese intervention introduces a layer of uncertainty that demands respect. Traders should balance technical setups with geopolitical awareness, focusing on risk management as the pair navigates this sensitive zone. FAQs Q1: What is the key support level for EUR/JPY right now? The immediate support is at 184.50, which has shifted from resistance to support. A break below this level could see the pair test 183.80 and then 183.00. Q2: How does Japanese intervention affect EUR/JPY? Intervention typically involves the Bank of Japan selling foreign currencies (like the euro) and buying yen, which would weaken EUR/JPY. Verbal warnings alone can also trigger short-term selling if traders perceive intervention as imminent. Q3: What is the next major resistance level for EUR/JPY? The next significant resistance is at 186.00, a psychological level. A sustained move above that could target 187.50, a high from late 2024. This post EUR/JPY Holds Above 184.50 as Bullish Momentum Persists Despite Intervention Watch first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

9 Jun 2026, 05:05

Ethereum price eyes $5,000, while ETH memecoin Little Pepe (LILPEPE) is set to rise from below $0.003 to $0.10

The crypto market provides opportunities in both the blue-chip space and the more volatile, high-growth new projects. Of the top cryptoassets on everyone’s watch list, Ethereum is the one that traders are debating whether the network can reclaim previous highs and target the $5,000 level during the next bull run. However, as people search for Continue reading "Ethereum price eyes $5,000, while ETH memecoin Little Pepe (LILPEPE) is set to rise from below $0.003 to $0.10"

9 Jun 2026, 05:00

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as China Trade Surplus Widens

BitcoinWorld Australian Dollar Holds Steady as China Trade Surplus Widens The Australian Dollar traded in a narrow range against the US Dollar on Wednesday, showing limited reaction to stronger-than-expected trade data from China. China’s trade surplus widened to $89.2 billion in March, exceeding analyst forecasts, yet the Aussie remained subdued as broader market sentiment stayed cautious. China Data Provides Limited Support China’s exports rose 12.4% year-on-year in March, while imports grew 5.6%, resulting in a larger trade surplus than the $85.0 billion anticipated. As Australia’s largest trading partner, stronger Chinese trade figures typically support the Australian Dollar due to increased demand for commodities and raw materials. However, the muted price action suggests traders are looking past the headline numbers. Analysts point to persistent concerns about global demand, ongoing trade tensions, and uncertainty over the pace of China’s economic recovery as factors limiting the Aussie’s upside. RBA Policy Outlook Weighs on Sentiment Market participants are also digesting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent policy stance. The RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.10% at its April meeting, reiterating that inflation remains too high and further tightening may be required. This has kept the Australian Dollar supported but unable to break out of its recent range. Interest rate differentials continue to favor the US Dollar, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish posture. The gap between Australian and US bond yields has narrowed, reducing the carry trade appeal of the Aussie. What This Means for Traders For forex traders, the lack of volatility following a significant data release signals that the market is in a wait-and-see mode. Key levels to watch include support near $0.6550 and resistance around $0.6650. A sustained break above resistance would require a catalyst such as a more dovish Fed or stronger domestic data from Australia. Commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal, remain supportive of the Australian Dollar, but the currency’s direction hinges on broader risk appetite and central bank guidance. Conclusion The Australian Dollar’s calm response to China’s strong trade data reflects a market that is already pricing in much of the positive news. With the RBA on hold and global uncertainties persisting, the Aussie is likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Traders should monitor upcoming Australian employment data and Fed commentary for clearer directional cues. FAQs Q1: Why does China’s trade data affect the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and strong trade figures indicate robust demand for Australian exports like iron ore, coal, and natural gas. This supports the Australian Dollar as it boosts export revenues and economic growth prospects. Q2: What is the RBA’s current interest rate stance? The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.10% in April 2025, signaling that inflation remains a concern. The RBA has not ruled out further rate hikes if price pressures persist. Q3: What are the key support and resistance levels for AUD/USD? Key support is near $0.6550, while resistance is around $0.6650. A break above resistance could target $0.6700, while a drop below support may open the door to $0.6500. This post Australian Dollar Holds Steady as China Trade Surplus Widens first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

9 Jun 2026, 05:00

Dogecoin (DOGE) At $0.086–Two Scenarios Ahead, Including A New 32% Crash

Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced back on Monday in a modest relief rally, climbing to about $0.086 after sliding to a multi-year low of $0.077 over the weekend. But when looking for clues on where the memecoin might go next, market analyst Ali Martinez released a technical update arguing that DOGE is sitting at a “critical structural inflection point.” In his view, the next phase could follow one of two clear paths, shaped by both higher-timeframe chart patterns and on-chain activity. Is A Macro Expansion Cycle Next? Martinez said Dogecoin is currently resting on a broad demand base that has historically supported major macro expansion cycles. He framed the setup as more than just a short-term rebound, pointing to long-running structural behavior. According to his analysis, since DOGE’s early days, the asset has tended to move through extended, multi-year consolidation channels—periods that compress volatility and effectively “transfer” supply over time. Those phases, he argues, typically come before larger structural bull markets. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning? Analyst Answers Martinez says that, at the moment, Dogecoin is testing a specific technical area at $0.081, which is slightly lower than the current trading price. This level corresponds to the lower mid-range boundary of an active five-year parallel channel. The analyst emphasized that this key chart level has support behind the scenes on-chain. He referenced the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which tracks the exact price levels where the tokens in circulation last moved. In Martinez’s description, there is a major cluster around $0.081: over 30 billion Dogecoin tokens were last transacted at roughly that same coordinate. The result, he says, is a large concentration of historical exposure that often becomes a psychological and financial “wall of defense,” making the area difficult for sellers to push through. Two Scenarios For Dogecoin When identifying the key levels to watch next, Martinez highlighted the $0.081 level, an active area where the URPD volume cluster overlaps with the channel mid-range. The second level is $0.058, which he calls the multi-year absolute channel floor. He then outlined two scenarios for what could happen next. Under Scenario A, the $0.081 volume block continues to absorb the market’s supply. If that support holds, Martinez believes the structure favors a steadier rebound and expansion back toward higher channel targets. Related Reading: XRP To $1 Or A Violent Reversal? Analyst Says Liquidity Setup Is Flashing Scenario B is more cautious. Martinez said that if macroeconomic headwinds intensify and Dogecoin closes weekly below $0.081, the chart structure would shift into what he called an extended valuation reset. In that case, the token could be pushed toward the lower portion of the macro channel, taking it directly to the $0.058 support floor—the multi-year level he highlighted as the ultimate baseline, which would also mean an additional 32% drop for the memecoin. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com