hodler

26 Mar 2026, 10:50

Norges Bank Policy Rate: Critical Analysis Reveals 4% Hold with Persistent Upside Risks

BitcoinWorld Norges Bank Policy Rate: Critical Analysis Reveals 4% Hold with Persistent Upside Risks OSLO, Norway – Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, is widely expected to maintain its key policy rate at 4.00% during its upcoming monetary policy meeting, according to a detailed analysis from Danske Bank. However, economists highlight significant upside risks that could challenge this stable outlook in the coming quarters. This assessment comes amid a complex global economic landscape and persistent domestic inflationary pressures. Norges Bank Policy Rate Decision: A Delicate Balance Norges Bank faces a challenging monetary policy environment. The current policy rate of 4.00% represents the highest level in over a decade. Consequently, the bank’s Executive Board must carefully weigh competing economic signals. On one hand, inflation, while moderating, remains above the bank’s 2% target. On the other hand, higher interest rates continue to cool the housing market and household consumption. Therefore, a hold decision appears the most prudent path forward for now. Danske Bank’s economists point to several key data points supporting this view. Firstly, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, has shown stubborn persistence. Secondly, wage growth agreements in Norway have settled at levels that may sustain price pressures. Thirdly, the Norwegian krone’s exchange rate remains a critical variable, influencing imported inflation. The central bank consistently monitors all these factors. Understanding the Persistent Upside Risks The primary concern for analysts is the clear upside risk to the interest rate path. Upside risk, in monetary policy terms, refers to factors that could force the central bank to raise rates higher or keep them elevated for longer than currently projected. Several concrete factors contribute to this risk assessment. Service Price Inflation: Prices in the services sector, particularly hospitality and personal services, continue to rise rapidly, driven by strong domestic demand and labor costs. Krone Vulnerability: A weaker-than-expected Norwegian krone increases the cost of imported goods, adding direct inflationary pressure. Global Commodity Prices: Norway, as a major energy exporter, is sensitive to shifts in oil and gas prices, which can feed into broader economic momentum and inflation expectations. Household Debt: High levels of household debt make the economy sensitive to rate changes, but they also mean that sustained inflation could erode purchasing power significantly, requiring a policy response. Expert Insight: The Domestic Demand Conundrum Monetary policy transmission—the process by which rate changes affect the economy—operates with a lag. The full effect of previous rate hikes is still working through the Norwegian economic system. Notably, domestic demand has proven more resilient than some models predicted. Strong employment figures and fiscal stimulus from the government’s use of oil revenue are supporting consumption. This resilience could delay the return of inflation to target, thereby extending the period of restrictive policy. Central bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache has previously emphasized data dependency, meaning each decision will be based on the latest economic figures. Comparative International Context Norges Bank’s stance does not exist in a vacuum. Major global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), are also in a holding pattern after aggressive hiking cycles. However, their paths are diverging. The table below illustrates the current policy landscape. Central Bank Current Policy Rate Recent Stance Primary Concern Norges Bank (Norway) 4.00% Hold with Hawkish Bias Core Inflation, Krone Federal Reserve (U.S.) 5.25%-5.50% Hold, Awaiting Data Services Inflation, Labor Market ECB (Eurozone) 4.00% Hold, Data-Dependent Wage Growth, Productivity Riksbank (Sweden) 3.75% Hold, Possible Cuts Ahead Weak Krona, Economic Growth This comparative view shows that Norges Bank maintains one of the higher policy rates in the developed world, reflecting its proactive approach to inflation. The bank’s forward guidance, contained in its famous ‘interest rate path’ chart, will be scrutinized for any shift in the projected timing of future rate changes. Economic Impacts and Market Implications The decision to hold rates at 4% carries immediate consequences. For financial markets, it supports the Norwegian krone by maintaining the yield advantage over other currencies. For households, it means mortgage costs remain elevated, continuing to pressure disposable income. For businesses, the cost of capital stays high, potentially dampening investment plans. The real estate market, which cooled significantly after rate hikes began, is likely to see continued stability without further tightening. However, the persistent mention of upside risk acts as a warning that relief may not arrive soon. Conclusion The consensus for a Norges Bank policy rate hold at 4.00% is strong, grounded in a need to balance slowing inflation against resilient economic activity. Nevertheless, the upside risk highlighted by Danske Bank and other institutions is a critical part of the narrative. It signals that the path toward potential rate cuts remains long and uncertain, heavily dependent on incoming data regarding inflation, the krone, and global economic conditions. The central bank’s upcoming communication will be vital in shaping market and public expectations for Norway’s monetary policy trajectory through 2025. FAQs Q1: What is the current Norges Bank policy rate? The Norges Bank policy rate is currently 4.00%, the highest level in over a decade, as the central bank works to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Q2: What does ‘upside risk’ mean in this context? ‘Upside risk’ refers to economic factors that could force Norges Bank to raise interest rates further or keep them at the current high level for a longer period than currently anticipated. Key risks include persistent service inflation and a weak krone. Q3: How does Norges Bank’s rate compare to other central banks? At 4.00%, Norges Bank’s rate is higher than the European Central Bank’s (4.00% for deposit facility) and Sweden’s Riksbank (3.75%), but lower than the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upper bound (5.50%). Q4: What is the main factor driving Norges Bank’s decision? The primary factor is core inflation, which excludes energy and food. Despite a general decline in headline inflation, core price pressures, particularly in services, remain stubbornly above the 2% target. Q5: How does the policy rate affect the average Norwegian? A 4.00% policy rate directly influences mortgage interest rates, increasing monthly payments for homeowners with variable-rate loans. It also affects savings returns, business loan costs, and the exchange rate of the Norwegian krone. This post Norges Bank Policy Rate: Critical Analysis Reveals 4% Hold with Persistent Upside Risks first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

26 Mar 2026, 10:48

Bitcoin in ‘later stages’ of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels

Bitcoin was down 44% from its $126,000 all-time highs as key onchain and technical indicators suggested BTC is entering the late phase of the bear market.

26 Mar 2026, 10:47

MemeCore Price Gains 40% post Network Hardfork; Can $M Hit $3?

MemeCore’s $M token jumped 40% in 24 hours to $2.39, pushing its market cap above $3 billion as the hardfork went live. The upgrade brings Account Abstraction, enabling smarter, cheaper, and more user-friendly transactions that strengthen the network’s positioning. Aster DEX listing $M perpetuals with up to 50x leverage and bonus trading points boosts volume. MemeCore price staged a massive technical and fundamental breakout despite Bitcoin’s uncertain price movement. Following the successful deployment of a major network upgrade, its native token,$M, surged to $2.39, marking a 40% gain in just 24 hours. With its market capitalization now firmly above the $3 billion threshold, MemeCore is more than just a speculative asset. The network is a Meme Chain (Layer1) that connects creators and communities through Memes and DApps. Catalysts in Price Surge The primary driver behind the vertical uptick is the official launch of the MemeCore Hardfork. According to the development team, the upgrade is “officially live and stable,” marking a turning point for the network’s efficiency. The MemeCore Hardfork is officially LIVE and STABLE! Combined with our new Account Abstraction, your transactions aren’t just cheaper—they’re smarter! Just sit back and enjoy the smooth, cheaper cost-effective ride in the MemeCore ecosystem! https://t.co/CHwMmOj9A8 — MemeCore (@MemeCore_M) March 25, 2026 The hardfork introduces Account Abstraction (AA), a sophisticated upgrade that effectively hides the complexities of blockchain interaction from the end user. In practical terms, this allows smarter transactions as programmable logic within wallets allows for batching and automated security features. Lower costs as the optimized gas efficiency makes the Layer1 ecosystem one of the most cost-effective environments for high-frequency trading and meme-coin minting. All the factors mentioned above lower the entry barrier as the network is positioning itself to capture the retail wave. Adding liquidity to the fire, Aster DEX announced the listing of $M perpetual contracts. Aster’s userbase can trade MemeCore with up to 50x leverage, a move that has significantly boosted the token’s 24-hour volume to $32.44 million. To further incentivize participation, Aster DEX is offering 1.2x trading points for $M traders until April 2nd. Analyzing MemeCore Price Charts The 15-minute price chart reveals a textbook bullish flag formation following the hardfork spike. After hitting a local high near $2.80, the price has consolidated into a narrowing wedge. Currently, $M’s price is trading at $2.30 and has found strong support at this level. With 70% surge in the last 30 days, the price shows impressive growth in the monthly time frame, while weekly gains stand at 23.59%. MemeCore – USDT (15 min chart) The technical structure suggests that $M is currently absorbing the ‘sell the news” pressure remarkably well. The upward-sloping support line marked with the green trendline remains intact, suggesting that as long as the price stays above $2.34, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the upside with a target of $3. Editor’s Note The market is shifting its perception of MemeCore as the combination of the viral nature of meme culture and smart infrastructure, like Account Abstraction, gives the project mainstream appeal. While the rally is impressive, the volume-to-market cap ratio remains a metric to watch. At $32.44 million in traded volume against a $3 billion market cap, the liquidity is concentrated. If $M can flip the $2.50 resistance into support, the psychological target of $3 becomes the next logical milestone. The convergence of the hardfork with Aster DEX listing and a monthly growth of 70%, MemeCore is slowly drawing eyeballs from the community and institutional investors. Also Read: Monero ($XMR) Holds $336 as Privacy Demand Outweighs Price Weakness

26 Mar 2026, 10:42

AI predicts Bittensor (TAO) price for April 1, 2026

With Bittensor ( TAO ) price outshining the wider crypto market as of March 26, Finbold’s AI Agent has projected that the altcoin could reach $359.20 by April 1, 2026. Finbold’s AI solution leveraged DeepSeek, Gemini 3 Flash, GPT 5.2, and Grok 4.1 to produce a seven-day price prediction for TAO, the native coin of the Bittensor network. Additionally, the AI agent used four technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 50 SMA. As TAO price trades at about $333.82 on Thursday, the AI agents forecast it to rise by an average of 7.62%. Precisely, Grok 4.1 expects the altcoin price to surge 15.48%, DeepSeek anticipates a 6.9% drop, GPT 5.2 is betting on a 7.36% rise, and Gemini 3 Flash is predicting a 14.55% uptick, thus yielding an average consensus of $359.20 in the coming few days. Bittensor (TAO) price predictions for 7 days. Source: Finbold Why is AI bullish on Bittensor (TAO) in the medium-term? The main reason AI is bullish on TAO’s price over the next 7 days is the strong fundamentals of the Bittensor ecosystem. The Bittensor network operates as a decentralised protocol where AI models compete and are rewarded in TAO based on performance, functioning in practice as a live marketplace for intelligence. Earlier this week, Jensen Huang, CEO at Nvidia, stated that decentralised computing – a similar model to Bittensor’s – is imminent. Already, the mainstream adoption of AI has begun attracting institutional attention to the decentralized AI agents space, with the Grayscale Bittensor Trust (GTAO) recording $13 million in assets under management (AUM). TAO/USD 30-day chart. Source: Finbold Meanwhile, AI agents are forecasting a bullish continuation for TAO after it rallied 101.65% in the past 30 days, to trade at approximately $338.20 at the time of publication. Over the past 7 days, the altcoin’s price surged by over 35%, pushing its market capitalization to around $3.2 billion at press time. ​ The post AI predicts Bittensor (TAO) price for April 1, 2026 appeared first on Finbold .

26 Mar 2026, 10:40

Bitcoin Mining Crisis: 20% of Miners Now at Zero Profitability as Hash Price Plummets

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Mining Crisis: 20% of Miners Now at Zero Profitability as Hash Price Plummets New analysis reveals a startling development in the cryptocurrency mining sector: approximately 20% of Bitcoin miners now operate at zero profitability. According to a comprehensive first-quarter report from digital asset investment firm CoinShares, worsening economic conditions have pushed miners with older equipment or high electricity costs below their break-even points. This significant shift follows Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving event and comes as the hash price metric—which measures expected daily revenue per unit of hash power—fell to just $28 last month, representing its lowest level since the halving. Bitcoin Mining Profitability Reaches Critical Threshold The CoinShares analysis provides crucial insights into the current state of Bitcoin mining economics. Hash price serves as the fundamental metric for measuring mining profitability, representing the expected value of mining rewards per unit of computational power contributed to the network. When this metric declines significantly, miners face immediate financial pressure. The report documents how hash price dropped to $28 in recent weeks, creating what analysts describe as a “profitability crisis” for certain segments of the mining industry. Several factors contribute to this challenging environment. First, Bitcoin’s price has shown relative weakness compared to previous post-halving cycles. Second, network difficulty continues to reach new all-time highs as more efficient mining equipment comes online. Third, electricity costs remain elevated in many regions where mining operations concentrate. These combined pressures create what industry experts call a “perfect storm” for less efficient mining operations. Understanding the Hash Price Metric and Its Implications Hash price represents a critical calculation in mining economics. Analysts determine this metric by dividing the total daily Bitcoin mining rewards by the network’s total hash rate. The resulting figure indicates how much revenue miners can expect per unit of computational power. When hash price declines, miners must either improve efficiency or face potential losses. The current $28 level represents a significant drop from previous periods and directly impacts operational decisions across the mining sector. CoinShares researchers explain that hash price fluctuations affect different miners unevenly. Operations using the latest generation ASIC miners with access to low-cost electricity maintain profitability margins. However, miners relying on older equipment or operating in regions with expensive power face immediate challenges. The analysis specifically identifies S19 series miners and earlier models as particularly vulnerable in the current environment. These machines, while once profitable, now struggle to cover operational costs at current hash price levels. The Break-Even Analysis Methodology CoinShares employed detailed break-even analysis to reach their conclusions about miner profitability. This methodology involves calculating the exact operational costs for different mining setups and comparing them against expected revenue. The analysis considers multiple variables including electricity costs, hardware efficiency, cooling expenses, and maintenance requirements. Researchers then compare these costs against mining rewards at current Bitcoin prices and network difficulty levels. The resulting data reveals clear stratification within the mining industry. Approximately 80% of miners continue operating profitably, though with reduced margins. The remaining 20% operate at or below their break-even points, meaning they generate no profit from their mining activities. Some operations may continue mining at a loss for strategic reasons, such as maintaining market position or speculating on future price increases. However, sustained unprofitability typically leads to equipment retirement or operational shutdowns. Potential Impact on Bitcoin Network Hashrate The CoinShares report contains an important warning about potential network effects. If Bitcoin’s price weakness persists, the retirement of inefficient mining rigs could slow the growth of the network’s hashrate. Network hashrate represents the total computational power securing the Bitcoin blockchain. While temporary fluctuations occur regularly, sustained reduction in hashrate growth could have implications for network security and transaction processing. Historical data shows that mining difficulty adjustments typically compensate for changes in network participation. The Bitcoin protocol automatically adjusts mining difficulty approximately every two weeks based on the total hashrate. If many miners disconnect their equipment, the network would eventually become easier to mine, potentially allowing remaining miners to achieve better profitability. However, this adjustment process requires time, creating potential volatility in the interim period. Industry analysts note several potential scenarios. In one scenario, inefficient miners gradually phase out equipment, leading to controlled hashrate adjustments. In another scenario, a sudden price drop could trigger rapid equipment shutdowns, creating more dramatic network effects. The current situation appears to follow the first scenario, with gradual adjustments rather than sudden changes. Network data shows continued hashrate growth, though at a slower pace than in previous months. Regional Variations in Mining Economics Mining profitability varies significantly by geographic region due to electricity cost differences. North American miners typically benefit from relatively stable and moderate electricity prices, particularly in regions with abundant renewable energy. European miners face higher energy costs in many areas, though some Nordic countries offer competitive rates. Asian mining operations show the greatest variation, with some regions offering extremely low electricity costs while others charge premium rates. The CoinShares analysis suggests that regional concentration of mining operations may shift in response to profitability pressures. Miners in high-cost regions face greater challenges maintaining operations. Some may consider relocating to regions with cheaper electricity, though such moves involve significant logistical challenges and capital requirements. Other miners may explore alternative revenue streams, such as demand response programs that compensate miners for reducing power consumption during grid stress periods. Historical Context and Mining Cycle Analysis The current profitability challenge follows predictable patterns in Bitcoin’s mining cycles. Previous halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all created temporary profitability pressures as mining rewards decreased while operational costs remained constant or increased. Historical data shows that mining profitability typically recovers over time as network difficulty adjusts and Bitcoin’s price appreciates. However, the timing and magnitude of these recoveries vary significantly between cycles. Analysts compare the current situation to previous mining industry consolidations. In 2018-2019, similar profitability pressures led to significant equipment upgrades and operational optimizations. Many inefficient miners exited the industry during that period, while surviving operations emerged stronger and more efficient. The current cycle may follow similar patterns, with temporary challenges leading to long-term industry maturation. However, each cycle presents unique characteristics based on market conditions and technological developments. Recent technological advancements play a crucial role in the current environment. The introduction of more efficient ASIC miners has accelerated the obsolescence of older equipment. Miners using S19 XP Hydro or similar efficient models maintain comfortable profitability margins even at current hash price levels. This technological stratification creates what industry observers call a “two-tier” mining economy, with efficient operations thriving while inefficient ones struggle. Industry Response and Adaptation Strategies Mining companies employ various strategies to navigate profitability challenges. Many operations focus on energy cost reduction through power purchase agreements or relocation to regions with cheaper electricity. Others invest in equipment upgrades, though capital requirements for new ASIC miners remain substantial. Some miners explore alternative revenue models, including high-performance computing services or heating applications for their waste heat. The public mining sector shows particular resilience due to access to capital markets. Publicly traded mining companies can raise funds through equity offerings or debt financing to weather temporary profitability challenges. These companies also benefit from economies of scale and professional management teams that optimize operations continuously. Private miners and smaller operations face greater challenges without similar access to capital or operational expertise. Industry analysts monitor several key indicators for signs of improvement. Bitcoin price appreciation represents the most direct path to improved mining economics. Technological advancements in mining efficiency could also improve profitability margins. Regulatory developments in key mining regions may create new opportunities or challenges. The coming months will reveal how the mining industry adapts to current conditions and what structural changes may result from this profitability pressure. Conclusion The CoinShares analysis reveals significant challenges in Bitcoin mining economics, with approximately 20% of miners now operating at zero profitability. This situation results from multiple factors including hash price declines, network difficulty increases, and variable electricity costs. The potential impact on network hashrate growth warrants careful monitoring, though historical patterns suggest the network will adjust through difficulty modifications. The current Bitcoin mining profitability crisis highlights the industry’s ongoing evolution and the constant pressure for operational efficiency. As mining technology advances and market conditions evolve, the industry will likely continue its pattern of consolidation and optimization, with efficient operations thriving while less competitive ones face ongoing challenges. FAQs Q1: What does “zero profitability” mean for Bitcoin miners? Zero profitability means mining operations generate revenue exactly equal to their operational costs, leaving no profit margin. These miners cover electricity, maintenance, and other expenses but earn no additional income from their mining activities. Q2: How does hash price affect mining profitability? Hash price measures expected daily revenue per unit of hash power. When this metric declines, miners earn less for the same computational effort, directly reducing profitability margins unless they can correspondingly reduce operational costs. Q3: Which miners are most affected by current conditions? Miners using older equipment (particularly S19 series and earlier models) and those operating in regions with high electricity costs face the greatest challenges. Efficient modern miners in low-cost energy regions maintain better profitability. Q4: Could miner profitability issues affect Bitcoin’s price? While mining economics and Bitcoin price correlate, the relationship works both ways. Miner selling pressure can influence markets, but price movements more significantly affect mining profitability than vice versa in most scenarios. Q5: How often does Bitcoin mining difficulty adjust? The Bitcoin network automatically adjusts mining difficulty approximately every 2,016 blocks, which typically occurs every two weeks. This adjustment maintains consistent block times regardless of changes in total network hashrate. This post Bitcoin Mining Crisis: 20% of Miners Now at Zero Profitability as Hash Price Plummets first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

26 Mar 2026, 10:40

Crypto slides as oil spike, macro jitters trigger derivatives unwind

Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 and ether fell toward $2,000 as rising oil prices, falling equities and weak liquidity sparked risk-off flows and pressured altcoins.