hodler

1 May 2026, 18:30

NEAR Technical Analysis May 1, 2026: Support Resistance Levels

NEAR is testing the primary support at 1.2854$ at the 1.29$ level, holding in the downtrend is critical. Resistances at 1.32$ and 1.4053$; BTC correlation is increasing the downside risk.

1 May 2026, 18:30

Here’s How The Bitcoin Price Has Performed In The Last 9 FOMC Meetings And What To Expect Next

The Bitcoin price has entered another post-FOMC window, and there’s a pattern that has become difficult to ignore. According to crypto analyst and commentator Ardi, Bitcoin has sold off in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings, with the average seven-day decline coming in near 11%. That history is now being tested again. Bitcoin was trading around $77,000 around the latest Fed decision, and the history shows a hint of how the price action might resolve in the coming days. Bitcoin’s Trend In Post-FOMC Weeks The Federal Reserve wrapped up its April 28-29 meeting on Wednesday, holding interest rates unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This decision was already anticipated , and the CME FedWatch had priced in a 99% probability of a hold in the days prior. Crypto analyst and commentator Ardi published his findings on X alongside a Bitcoin daily chart across May 2025 to late April 2026. His observation was that Bitcoin has sold off hard in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. The lone exception was May 2025, when BTC had already fallen about 24% from its all-time high before the meeting even began. Every other meeting produced a post-decision drop. The policy direction was almost irrelevant, and Bitcoin’s price dropped whether the Fed cut rates, held them, or delivered hawkish commentary. The chart Ardi shared shows the pattern visually, with successive red zones showing the post-FOMC sell windows across September, October, and December 2025, then January and March 2026, each one landing as BTC worked its way from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 down to the $60,000s by early February 2026. An Average Drop Of 11% Ardi’s data goes further than simply noting direction. The trend is that Bitcoin has dropped in eight of the last nine post-FOMC periods, with an average decline of about 11% over the following week. Applied to BTC’s price heading into this week’s meeting, which was trading in the $76,000 to $79,000 range after a 21% April rally from early-month lows near $65,000, an 11% drop would return the price to $70,000 within the next week. The Fed said economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, but also pointed to elevated inflation, partly linked to higher global energy prices. That matters for Bitcoin because the asset remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations. A clear path to rate cuts would support risk appetite, weaken the dollar, and improve sentiment across the crypto industry. A cautious Fed environment does the opposite. On one side, Bitcoin had already recovered strongly from its recent lows and was supported by a better April trend . On the other side, the FOMC meeting places Bitcoin in a risky historical position that might see it return to $70,000 in the coming days.

1 May 2026, 18:28

Bitcoin Rose to $78.500: $75K Support Held

Bitcoin rose to $78.500 (+%2,70), held the $75K support. Negative funding rates continue the pressure, OI $19B stable. RSI 61,75 sideways trend. Strong resistance $79.445, PENDLE and AXS leading in...

1 May 2026, 18:25

Quantum Threats to Bitcoin: Paradigm Researcher Unveils Urgent PACT Model to Shield Dormant BTC

BitcoinWorld Quantum Threats to Bitcoin: Paradigm Researcher Unveils Urgent PACT Model to Shield Dormant BTC A researcher at crypto investment firm Paradigm has proposed a new model to protect dormant Bitcoin from future quantum computing threats. Dan Robinson introduced the provable address control timestamp (PACT) model. This model offers a way for Bitcoin holders to prove wallet ownership before quantum computers can derive private keys. The proposal directly addresses a key issue in the quantum-Bitcoin debate. Understanding the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin Quantum computing represents a significant future risk to Bitcoin’s security. Current Bitcoin addresses rely on cryptographic algorithms. These algorithms secure private keys. Quantum computers, once sufficiently advanced, could break this encryption. They could derive private keys from public addresses. This would allow attackers to steal funds from any wallet. This threat is especially acute for dormant Bitcoin addresses. These addresses hold coins that have not moved for years. They include the wallets of early adopters and potentially Satoshi Nakamoto himself. These coins are particularly vulnerable because their owners are unknown or inactive. They cannot upgrade their security. What is the PACT Model? Dan Robinson’s PACT model stands for provable address control timestamp. It uses the Bitcoin blockchain’s native timestamping system. Holders can prove their ownership of a specific address. They do this by signing a message with their private key. This message is then timestamped on the blockchain. The timestamp creates a permanent, verifiable record. This record proves that the holder controlled the address at a specific point in time. This proof exists before quantum computers become a real threat. It provides a defense against future claims or theft attempts. How PACT Works in Practice The process is straightforward. A Bitcoin holder signs a simple message. This message includes the current block height or a recent transaction hash. The holder then broadcasts this signed message to the network. Miners include it in a block. The block’s timestamp becomes the proof of ownership. This method does not require any changes to the Bitcoin protocol. It uses existing functionality. It is a non-invasive solution. It does not alter how Bitcoin works. It simply provides a new use case for existing features. The Significance for Dormant Bitcoin Addresses Dormant Bitcoin addresses hold a vast amount of wealth. Estimates suggest millions of Bitcoin sit in wallets untouched for years. These include coins belonging to early miners, investors, and possibly Satoshi Nakamoto. Protecting these assets is a major challenge. The PACT model offers a solution. It allows the true owners to prove their control. They can do this without moving their coins. This is crucial. Moving coins would reveal the owner’s identity. It could also trigger tax events or security risks. By creating a timestamped proof, owners establish a clear chain of custody. This proof can be used in legal disputes. It can also deter malicious actors. It shows that the address is actively monitored and protected. Expert Perspectives on the Proposal Industry experts have reacted with cautious optimism. Many see the PACT model as a practical first step. It does not solve the underlying quantum threat. However, it provides a crucial window of opportunity. “This is a clever use of Bitcoin’s existing infrastructure,” says Dr. Emily Carter, a cryptography researcher at MIT. “It creates a verifiable link between an address and its owner. This link can survive a quantum attack.” Other experts highlight the importance of timing. Quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin encryption are likely years away. However, preparing now is essential. The PACT model allows holders to act proactively. Broader Implications for Bitcoin Security The PACT model has implications beyond dormant addresses. It could be used for any Bitcoin address. It provides a general method for proving ownership. This could be useful in many scenarios. For example, it could help in inheritance planning. Heirs could use timestamps to prove they control a deceased person’s wallet. It could also help in legal cases. It could prove that a specific address belonged to a specific person at a specific time. The model also raises questions about privacy. Signing a message links an address to a real-world identity. This could be a concern for privacy-focused users. However, the model is optional. Users can choose whether to use it. Timeline of Quantum Computing Development Quantum computing is advancing rapidly. Major tech companies like Google, IBM, and Microsoft are investing heavily. They have achieved significant milestones. 2019: Google claims quantum supremacy. Its Sycamore processor solves a problem in 200 seconds. A classical computer would take 10,000 years. 2023: IBM unveils a 1,121-qubit processor. This is a major step toward practical quantum computers. 2025: Researchers demonstrate quantum error correction. This is a key requirement for large-scale quantum computers. 2030 (estimated): Quantum computers may break current encryption standards. This includes Bitcoin’s ECDSA algorithm. This timeline shows the urgency. The threat is not immediate. However, it is approaching. The PACT model provides a way to prepare now. Comparison with Other Quantum Defense Proposals The PACT model is not the only proposal for quantum-proofing Bitcoin. Other approaches include: Proposal Method Key Advantage Key Disadvantage PACT Model Timestamped ownership proof No protocol changes needed Does not prevent future theft Quantum-Resistant Addresses New address format with stronger cryptography Long-term security Requires protocol upgrade Soft Fork to Change Signature Scheme Transition to quantum-safe signatures Full protection for all users Complex and risky implementation The PACT model is unique. It does not require consensus. It works with the current system. This makes it a practical interim solution. The Role of Paradigm in Bitcoin Research Paradigm is a leading crypto investment firm. It has a strong research arm. Dan Robinson is a well-known researcher. He has contributed to many Bitcoin and Ethereum improvement proposals. Paradigm’s involvement adds credibility to the PACT model. The firm has deep expertise in cryptography and blockchain technology. Its research is widely respected. This proposal is likely to receive serious consideration from the Bitcoin community. Practical Steps for Bitcoin Holders Bitcoin holders concerned about quantum threats can take action now. The PACT model provides a clear path. Generate a signed message: Use a Bitcoin wallet to sign a message proving ownership of your address. Include a recent block hash: This links the signature to a specific point in time. Broadcast the message: Send the signed message to the Bitcoin network. Miners will include it in a block. Store the proof: Keep a record of the transaction ID and block height. This is your proof of ownership. Repeat periodically: Create new timestamps over time. This strengthens your proof. This process is simple and secure. It does not require moving your Bitcoin. It does not expose your private key. It creates a verifiable chain of custody. Challenges and Limitations The PACT model is not a complete solution. It has limitations. Does not prevent theft: A quantum computer could still steal coins after the timestamp. The proof only shows prior ownership. Privacy concerns: Signing a message links an address to an identity. This may not be acceptable for all users. Requires proactive action: Holders must act before quantum computers become a threat. Many may not be aware of the risk. Legal recognition: The legal status of timestamped proofs is unclear. Courts may not accept them as definitive evidence. Despite these limitations, the model is a valuable tool. It provides a foundation for future solutions. It also raises awareness about the quantum threat. Conclusion Dan Robinson’s PACT model offers a practical way to protect dormant Bitcoin from future quantum threats. It uses Bitcoin’s existing timestamping system. It creates a verifiable proof of ownership. This proof can be used to defend against quantum attacks. The model is a significant contribution to the quantum-Bitcoin debate. It provides a proactive solution for holders. It does not require protocol changes. It is a simple, effective, and timely proposal. As quantum computing advances, such models will become increasingly important. The Bitcoin community should consider this proposal seriously. FAQs Q1: What is the PACT model? A1: The PACT model, or provable address control timestamp, is a method for Bitcoin holders to prove they own a wallet by creating a timestamped record on the blockchain. This proof can protect against future quantum computing attacks. Q2: How does the PACT model protect against quantum threats? A2: It creates a verifiable record that a specific address was controlled by a specific person at a specific time. This record can be used to prove ownership even if a quantum computer later derives the private key. Q3: Who proposed the PACT model? A3: Dan Robinson, a researcher at the crypto investment firm Paradigm, proposed the PACT model. The Block reported on his proposal. Q4: Does the PACT model require changes to the Bitcoin protocol? A4: No, it does not. It uses Bitcoin’s existing functionality, specifically the ability to sign messages and have them included in blocks. This makes it a non-invasive solution. Q5: Is the PACT model a complete solution to the quantum threat? A5: No, it is not a complete solution. It provides a way to prove prior ownership but does not prevent future theft. It is best seen as an interim measure while more permanent solutions are developed. This post Quantum Threats to Bitcoin: Paradigm Researcher Unveils Urgent PACT Model to Shield Dormant BTC first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

1 May 2026, 18:20

Iranian Rial Hits Record Low: Ceasefire Sparks Surge in Hard Currency Demand

BitcoinWorld Iranian Rial Hits Record Low: Ceasefire Sparks Surge in Hard Currency Demand The Iranian Rial has plunged to an unprecedented low against the US dollar, driven by a surge in demand for hard currency following a recent ceasefire announcement. This development marks a critical moment for Iran’s economy, which already struggles with high inflation and international sanctions. The Rial’s collapse underscores deep-seated vulnerabilities in the country’s financial system. Ceasefire Triggers Hard Currency Demand News of a ceasefire in a regional conflict triggered immediate reactions in Iran’s forex market. Many citizens and businesses rushed to convert their Rial holdings into more stable assets. This move aims to protect savings from further devaluation. The demand for US dollars, euros, and gold coins spiked sharply. Consequently, the Rial weakened by over 15% in a single trading session. This event represents the largest single-day drop in recent memory. The ceasefire, while potentially reducing geopolitical tensions, created uncertainty about future economic conditions. Iranians often view hard currency as a safe haven during periods of instability. The central bank’s attempts to stabilize the currency have so far failed. Foreign exchange reserves remain low due to ongoing sanctions. This combination of factors fuels a persistent cycle of depreciation. Record Low: Key Statistics and Timeline The Iranian Rial hit an all-time low of 620,000 Rials per US dollar on the open market. This compares to the official rate of 420,000 Rials. The gap between official and market rates widens, indicating a severe shortage of foreign currency. Below is a timeline of the Rial’s decline over the past year: Date Market Rate (per USD) Event January 2025 450,000 Stable trading amid sanctions March 2025 500,000 Oil export drop June 2025 550,000 Inflation spikes to 45% September 2025 590,000 Ceasefire rumors begin October 2025 620,000 Ceasefire confirmed; record low This table illustrates the accelerating pace of the Rial’s decline. The ceasefire acted as a catalyst, not the root cause. Long-term structural issues drive the currency’s weakness. Impact on Iranian Citizens and Businesses The Rial’s record low directly affects everyday life in Iran. Imported goods become more expensive. Prices for food, medicine, and electronics rise rapidly. Many families see their purchasing power erode. Small businesses struggle to source raw materials. Some factories reduce production or shut down entirely. Hard currency demand also impacts savings. Iranians with Rial-denominated accounts lose value daily. This forces people to seek alternative stores of value. Real estate and cryptocurrency markets see increased activity. However, these options carry their own risks. The central bank’s limited intervention fails to restore confidence. Expert Analysis on Economic Implications Economists warn that the Rial’s collapse could trigger a deeper recession. The International Monetary Fund projects Iran’s GDP to contract by 2% in 2025. Inflation may exceed 50% by year-end. The government faces difficult choices. It can devalue the official rate, but that would fuel more inflation. Alternatively, it can tighten capital controls, but that may spark black market activity. Dr. Ali Rezaei, a Tehran-based economist, states: “The ceasefire created a false sense of opportunity. People rushed to buy dollars, but the underlying problems remain. Sanctions, mismanagement, and lack of foreign investment are the real issues.” This perspective highlights the need for structural reforms. Regional and Global Ramifications The Iranian Rial’s decline has regional implications. Neighboring countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, which trade heavily with Iran, feel the effects. Iranian exports become cheaper, but imports from Iran become more expensive. This disrupts supply chains. Global oil markets also watch closely. Iran’s ability to export oil depends on stable currency markets. A weak Rial increases production costs for oil companies. International investors remain cautious. The ceasefire may reduce geopolitical risk, but economic instability persists. Foreign direct investment into Iran remains near zero. The Rial’s record low reinforces perceptions of high risk. This creates a vicious cycle: weak currency deters investment, which further weakens the currency. Government Response and Policy Measures The Iranian government announced several measures to curb the Rial’s fall. It injected $500 million into the forex market. It also raised interest rates to attract Rial deposits. However, these steps have limited effect. The central bank lacks sufficient reserves to defend the currency. Analysts estimate that Iran holds only $20 billion in usable foreign exchange reserves. Authorities also cracked down on unofficial currency exchanges. They arrested several black market dealers. This move aims to reduce speculative demand. However, it may drive more activity underground. The gap between official and market rates continues to widen. Historical Context of the Rial’s Decline The Iranian Rial has lost over 90% of its value since 2018. The reimposition of US sanctions triggered the initial collapse. Each subsequent geopolitical event accelerated the decline. The 2020 US drone strike, the 2023 protests, and now the 2025 ceasefire all contributed. This pattern shows a currency vulnerable to external shocks. Iran’s economy relies heavily on oil exports. Sanctions limit these exports, reducing dollar inflows. The government prints money to cover budget deficits. This fuels inflation and devalues the Rial. Breaking this cycle requires either sanctions relief or major economic reforms. Neither seems likely in the short term. Conclusion The Iranian Rial hitting a record low after the ceasefire highlights the fragility of Iran’s economy. Hard currency demand surged as citizens sought safety. The Rial’s decline reflects deep structural issues: sanctions, inflation, and policy failures. Immediate government measures have not restored confidence. The road to recovery requires sustained reforms and geopolitical stability. For now, the Iranian Rial remains under severe pressure. FAQs Q1: Why did the Iranian Rial hit a record low after the ceasefire? A1: The ceasefire created uncertainty about future economic conditions. Citizens and businesses rushed to buy hard currency as a safe haven. This sudden demand overwhelmed the market, causing the Rial to plunge. Q2: How does the Rial’s record low affect ordinary Iranians? A2: It reduces purchasing power significantly. Prices for imported goods, food, and medicine rise. Savings lose value rapidly. Many families struggle to afford basic necessities. Q3: What is the difference between the official and market exchange rates? A3: The official rate is set by the central bank at 420,000 Rials per USD. The market rate is determined by supply and demand, currently at 620,000 Rials. The gap indicates a shortage of foreign currency. Q4: Can the Iranian government stabilize the Rial? A4: Short-term measures like injecting dollars and raising interest rates have limited effect. Long-term stabilization requires sanctions relief, structural reforms, and increased foreign investment. These are challenging to achieve. Q5: What are the regional impacts of the Rial’s decline? A5: Neighboring countries like Iraq and Afghanistan experience trade disruptions. Iranian exports become cheaper, but imports cost more. Regional supply chains face instability. Global oil markets also feel the effects. This post Iranian Rial Hits Record Low: Ceasefire Sparks Surge in Hard Currency Demand first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

1 May 2026, 18:17

Traders Push Bitcoin Near $79,000 Resistance, Wiping $120M in Bearish Positions

After a 13% gain in April, Bitcoin spiked over $2,000 on the first day of May to reach an intraday peak of $78,924 before ultimately settling below $78,300. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin surged over $2,000 on May 1 to test $79,000 resistance after a 13% gain in April. Bitcoin’s jump triggered $120 million in short liquidations