hodler

29 Apr 2026, 15:54

Peter Schiff Claims Vindication as Bitcoin Falls 30% Since 2025 Sell Call

Last year at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, Peter Schiff advised people to sell their BTC holdings. At the time, the cryptocurrency was valued at around $110,000, as it rode the hype of Bitcoin treasury companies. Now, with the 2026 gathering happening, BTC is trading near $77,000, and according to Schiff, that dip shows that the new narrative being pushed at this year’s event will also do nothing for the asset’s price. What Schiff Said Then, What He’s Saying Now, and Why the Gap Matters At the 2025 conference, Schiff stood on stage and told attendees to sell. The crowd was deep into the Bitcoin treasury company narrative, the idea that publicly traded companies loading up on Bitcoin would keep driving the price higher. A year on, the asset is down about 30%, and the hot new pitch at the 2026 event is “digital credit,” which, according to Schiff, will go nowhere too. “Last year, the hype was Bitcoin treasury companies near the peak,” he wrote on X. “This year, it’s digital credit, which will soon blow up.” The economist also ran the numbers on Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation. A year ago, the company owned 2.76% of the total supply. Today it is 3.9%, a 40% increase in the market share, and the price has still fallen. Schiff’s question, put simply, is if Strategy gets to 5% by next year’s conference, why would that be any different? Strategy has, in fact, kept buying. On the day the conference began, it picked up another 3,273 BTC for roughly $255 million, bringing its total to 818,334 BTC bought for around $61.8 billion at an average of about $75,500 per BTC. Schiff has also been targeting Strategy’s STRC preferred stock. In a live X Space on April 23, he called it “an obvious Ponzi scheme” and spent roughly two hours explaining why. His argument was straightforward: STRC pays holders an 11.5% annual yield in monthly cash distributions, and Strategy’s software business does not generate nearly enough income to cover that. So where does the money come from? “The 11.5% yield on STRC is paid by selling more shares of STRC, and then you get money from new investors to pay old investors,” claimed the gold bug. Schiff’s Critics Have a Long Memory The reaction on X was predictable and not especially kind to Schiff. Trader Mr. Anderson posted a thread of screenshots going back to November 2013, when Schiff was warning people off Bitcoin at $764. There are subsequent calls at $566, $3,870, $4,023, $7,220, and $5,341. Bitcoin has multiplied many times over from each of those prices. “You said that from $700 to $126K,” the post read. “To say, ‘I was right’ after all that tells us everything we need to know about your opinion.” Analyst Josh Mandell made a different kind of objection : “You can’t take credit for telling people to take profits on something you never suggested they buy in the first place.” At the conference itself on April 28, Saylor told the crowd he thinks a supply shock is building. His reasoning is that somewhere between $20 billion and $100 billion in new bank credit could flow into Bitcoin over the next 12 months, from institutions including J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays, against roughly $10 billion of BTC he said is “naturally available for sale.” His conclusion was that prices should rally and that the rally would pull up Bitcoin treasury stocks and demand for digital credit products along with it. The post Peter Schiff Claims Vindication as Bitcoin Falls 30% Since 2025 Sell Call appeared first on CryptoPotato .

29 Apr 2026, 15:53

Option Traders Build ‘Electric Fence’ Around Bitcoin at $80,000

Bitcoin has been pressing toward $80,000 and struggling to get through. One reason: a hidden force in the options market is working against it.

29 Apr 2026, 15:52

Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed

Bitcoin has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty ahead of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, as traders weigh historical downside patterns against mixed policy signals from incoming chair Kevin Warsh. According to crypto trading account CRYPTOWZRD, Bitcoin has corrected for several months after each new Fed chair has taken office, a pattern now drawing attention as Warsh prepares to replace Jerome Powell next month. “Every time a new FED Chair takes over $BTC has corrected for a few months before the real fun began,” CRYPTOWZRD wrote on X , adding, “Can it break the curse or a final dip?” Data cited by the same source has shown that Fed leadership changes have also pressured equities, though the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs during the current handover. Warsh’s arrival could carry a more complex meaning for crypto than a standard hawkish Fed transition. During recent testimony, Warsh said digital assets are already part of the American financial system, while his financial disclosures showed household exposure to crypto-linked investments. Market participants have treated those details as signs that his oversight of the sector may be more informed than Powell’s cautious approach. Warsh’s Fed could test Bitcoin’s liquidity thesis Policy expectations have become more politically charged before Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting. President Donald Trump told CNBC that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh does not cut rates in June, even as markets tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool have unanimously priced in no change at Powell’s final meeting. Liquidity trends have added a different signal. Bitcoin Opportunity Fund partner James Lavish said the Fed has added roughly $200 billion in US Treasuries back onto its balance sheet in recent months, arguing that quantitative tightening has effectively ended and describing the current backdrop as “QE-light.” Warsh’s policy record has left traders facing competing readings. According to Creative Planning’s chief market strategist, Charlie Bilello , Warsh has been “building the case” for rate cuts, but also noted that Warsh criticised the Fed’s low-rate stance during the 2021 and 2022 inflation surge as a “fatal policy error.” Those contradictions matter for Bitcoin because Warsh has also called for a more disciplined Fed, including a smaller balance sheet and a focus on institutional credibility. Some crypto analysts have noted that such a stance could pressure high-beta risk assets by tightening liquidity, while political pressure for easier money could create a tailwind for digital assets if investors begin to price in dollar debasement risk. Retail CBDC opposition gives private crypto room Warsh’s position on a central bank digital currency has also drawn attention from crypto investors. He has opposed a retail digital dollar, describing it as a poor policy choice that conflicts with American values of privacy and financial independence, while showing more openness toward a wholesale digital dollar for institutional settlement. For private crypto markets, that distinction could matter because a retail CBDC would place the Fed in direct competition with stablecoins and payment networks. A wholesale-only approach would leave more room for private stablecoin issuers and crypto payment infrastructure to develop without a central bank product aimed at everyday users. Warsh has previously described Bitcoin as the “newest and coolest software” while questioning its use as a stable medium of exchange. His more recent comments, disclosures, and CBDC stance suggest a chairmanship that may treat digital assets as part of the existing financial system rather than a fringe market. For Bitcoin, the first test may still come through liquidity . As mentioned before, historical patterns point to a possible downside in the months after Warsh takes office, while balance sheet additions, political pressure for rate cuts, and a less hostile view of private crypto could limit the damage or even support the digital gold narrative later in the cycle. The post Bitcoin outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to take over the Fed appeared first on Invezz

29 Apr 2026, 15:50

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025

BitcoinWorld Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at the current level, signaling a firm commitment to its inflation-fighting mandate despite mounting political pressure to ease monetary policy. This decision, announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on [Date], in Washington, D.C., marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy in 2025. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: A Defiant Stance The central bank’s decision to hold rates steady comes as a direct rebuke to calls from some lawmakers and industry groups who argue that high borrowing costs are stifling economic growth. The Fed, however, remains focused on its dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. Recent data shows that core inflation, while easing from its peak, remains stubbornly above the 2% target. This data-driven approach underpins the Fed’s resolve. Why the Fed Chose to Hold the Line Several key factors influenced the FOMC’s decision. First, the labor market remains unexpectedly tight, with wage growth still fueling consumer spending. Second, geopolitical uncertainties continue to inject volatility into global supply chains, posing a risk of renewed price pressures. Third, the Fed is carefully monitoring the lagged effects of its previous rate hikes. By holding steady, the central bank buys time to assess the full impact of its past actions without overcorrecting. Political Pressure vs. Economic Data The tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent months. Political figures have publicly urged the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the housing market and manufacturing sector. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized the importance of data dependency. This clash highlights a fundamental debate: should monetary policy prioritize short-term political goals or long-term economic stability? The Fed’s current path clearly favors the latter. The Inflation Picture in 2025 Current inflation metrics paint a complex picture. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 3.1% year-over-year, down from its 9.1% peak. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, remains at 2.7%. Services inflation, particularly in housing and healthcare, has proven especially sticky. This data suggests that the final leg of the inflation fight will be the most difficult, requiring patience from policymakers. Market Reaction to the Fed’s Hold Financial markets initially reacted with mild disappointment, as some traders had priced in a small chance of a rate cut. The S&P 500 dipped slightly in afternoon trading, while bond yields rose modestly. The U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. Analysts at major investment banks have revised their forecasts, now predicting the first rate cut may not occur until the fourth quarter of 2025 or early 2026. Stock Market: Modest sell-off in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.25%. Housing Market: Mortgage rates remain elevated, near 7%, cooling demand. Impact on Borrowers and Savers For consumers, the decision means continued high costs for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages. Savers, conversely, continue to benefit from attractive yields on high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit. The Fed’s stance creates a clear divergence: borrowers face ongoing strain, while savers enjoy the highest real returns in over a decade. This dynamic is reshaping household financial strategies across the country. Global Implications of the Fed’s Decision The Fed’s decision reverberates globally. A stronger dollar puts pressure on emerging market economies that have borrowed in dollars. Central banks in Europe and Asia are watching closely, as a hawkish Fed limits their own ability to cut rates without triggering capital outflows. The coordinated nature of global monetary policy means that the Fed’s independence has consequences far beyond U.S. borders. Expert Analysis: A Necessary Patience Economists largely support the Fed’s cautious approach. “The risk of cutting rates too early and reigniting inflation is far greater than the risk of holding too long and slowing growth,” explains Dr. Elena Vargas, a former Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute. “The labor market is still strong. There is no emergency that demands immediate action.” This sentiment echoes across the economic community, reinforcing the idea that the Fed is acting responsibly. Timeline of the 2025 Monetary Policy Cycle To understand the current decision, it helps to look at the recent timeline: Date Action Fed Funds Rate July 2023 Final hike of the cycle 5.50% Jan 2024 First hold 5.50% Current (2025) Continued hold 5.50% Conclusion The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in the face of political pressure underscores its commitment to data-driven monetary policy. By prioritizing long-term price stability over short-term political gains, the Fed aims to build a more sustainable economic foundation. While the path forward remains uncertain, the central bank’s clear signal is one of patience and vigilance. For investors, businesses, and consumers, the message is clear: the era of easy money is not returning anytime soon. FAQs Q1: Why did the Federal Reserve decide to hold interest rates steady? The Fed held rates steady because core inflation remains above its 2% target, the labor market is still tight, and it needs more time to assess the lagged effects of previous rate hikes. Q2: How does the Fed’s decision affect mortgage rates? Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated, near 7%, as the Fed’s hold keeps long-term bond yields high. This continues to cool the housing market. Q3: Will the Fed cut rates in 2025? Most economists now predict the first rate cut may not happen until late 2025 or early 2026, depending on inflation data and economic growth. Q4: What is the difference between the CPI and PCE inflation measures? The CPI measures out-of-pocket costs for consumers, while the PCE adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. The Fed prefers the PCE because it provides a broader view of inflation. Q5: How does the Fed’s decision impact the stock market? Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities typically underperform when rates are held high. However, banks and financials may benefit from wider net interest margins. This post Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Defying Political Pressure to Cut in 2025 first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

29 Apr 2026, 15:49

Czech Central Bank: BTC Reserve Test Increases Returns

Czech CB President Michl announced that the BTC reserve test increased the yield. In the 1M$ test, BTC outperformed gold, but volatility is high. Technical: Support $73K, Resistance $77K. Central b...

29 Apr 2026, 15:48

Bitcoin Hits a 'Kiss of Death', But Fidelity's Director Timmer Says It's a Bull Market Signal This Time

Jurrien Timmer, director of the Global Macro department at $7.1 trillion Fidelity, identifies an emerging bull market for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency defies a technical "Kiss of Death".