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25 Apr 2026, 22:40

USD Outlook: Goldman Sachs Warns of Shrinking Supply Shock, Delayed Dollar Weakness Ahead

BitcoinWorld USD Outlook: Goldman Sachs Warns of Shrinking Supply Shock, Delayed Dollar Weakness Ahead Goldman Sachs has issued a fresh analysis on the USD outlook , warning that a shrinking supply shock is reshaping the global dollar landscape. The investment bank now expects delayed dollar weakness as key economic forces converge. This shift carries significant implications for forex traders, central banks, and international investors. Goldman Sachs USD Outlook: The Shrinking Supply Shock Explained A shrinking supply shock refers to a reduction in the global availability of U.S. dollars. This happens when the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy or when global trade patterns reduce dollar demand. Goldman Sachs notes that this dynamic is currently delaying the anticipated dollar weakness . Fed policy: Persistent high interest rates keep dollars scarce. Trade flows: Reduced imports into the U.S. lower dollar circulation abroad. Geopolitical factors: Sanctions and de-dollarization efforts reduce dollar usage in some regions. These factors combine to create a supply shock that supports the greenback in the near term. Why Dollar Weakness Is Delayed: Key Drivers Goldman Sachs identifies three primary reasons for the delayed dollar weakness . First, the U.S. economy remains resilient compared to peers. Second, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts. Third, global risk aversion continues to favor the dollar as a safe haven. Driver Impact on USD Timeline Fed rate hold Supports dollar strength 2025 H1 Global trade slowdown Reduces dollar supply Ongoing Risk-off sentiment Increases dollar demand Short-term These dynamics push the expected dollar weakness further into the future. How the Supply Shock Affects Forex Markets The shrinking supply shock directly impacts currency pairs. A stronger dollar pressures emerging market currencies. It also affects commodity prices, as most commodities are dollar-denominated. Traders now adjust their strategies to account for this prolonged dollar strength. EUR/USD: Faces downward pressure as the dollar strengthens. USD/JPY: Could test new highs if the Bank of Japan remains dovish. Emerging markets: Higher debt servicing costs due to dollar strength. Goldman Sachs advises hedging against prolonged dollar strength. Background: The Evolution of the Dollar Supply Shock The concept of a dollar supply shock gained prominence after the 2008 financial crisis. Quantitative easing flooded markets with dollars. Now, the opposite is happening. The Fed’s balance sheet runoff reduces dollar liquidity. This creates a supply shock that tightens global financial conditions. Historically, dollar strength peaks during periods of global uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict both boosted the greenback. Today, the USD outlook reflects a similar pattern. Expert Insights: What Economists Say Economists at Goldman Sachs emphasize that the delayed dollar weakness does not mean the dollar will remain strong forever. They expect a gradual depreciation once the Fed begins cutting rates. However, the timing remains uncertain. “The shrinking supply shock is a temporary phenomenon,” says a senior analyst at the bank. “Once global trade recovers and the Fed eases, the dollar will likely weaken.” Impact on Global Trade and Investment A strong dollar benefits U.S. consumers by making imports cheaper. However, it hurts U.S. exporters by making their goods more expensive abroad. For emerging markets, a strong dollar increases debt burdens and capital outflows. U.S. exporters: Face reduced competitiveness. Emerging markets: Experience currency depreciation and inflation. Commodity prices: Tend to fall as the dollar rises. Investors should monitor these trends closely. Conclusion Goldman Sachs’ USD outlook highlights a shrinking supply shock that delays the anticipated dollar weakness . This analysis provides critical insights for forex traders, policymakers, and global investors. Understanding these dynamics helps navigate the evolving currency landscape. The dollar supply shock will likely persist until the Fed shifts its policy stance. FAQs Q1: What is a shrinking supply shock in the USD context? A shrinking supply shock refers to a reduction in the global availability of U.S. dollars due to Fed tightening, reduced trade flows, or geopolitical factors. Q2: Why does Goldman Sachs expect delayed dollar weakness? Goldman Sachs cites a resilient U.S. economy, cautious Fed policy, and global risk aversion as key reasons for the delay. Q3: How does a supply shock affect forex trading? A supply shock strengthens the dollar, putting pressure on other currencies and affecting pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Q4: When might the dollar weaken? Goldman Sachs expects dollar weakness to emerge once the Fed begins cutting rates and global trade recovers, likely in late 2025 or 2026. Q5: What should investors do amid a shrinking supply shock? Investors should hedge against prolonged dollar strength, monitor Fed policy signals, and consider exposure to currencies that may benefit from a weaker dollar later. This post USD Outlook: Goldman Sachs Warns of Shrinking Supply Shock, Delayed Dollar Weakness Ahead first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

25 Apr 2026, 22:30

Historical Data Shows Bitcoin Price Has Never Breached This Level – Will It Start Now?

Bitcoin’s price action has been climbing steadily off its February low around $61,300, but what stands directly ahead is not just another resistance zone. It is a statistical threshold that has held firm through multiple market cycles. According to data, every time Bitcoin has staged a 30% recovery from a cycle low, it has gone on to new highs without revisiting that low. The record is six for six, covering more than 13 years of market history. The 30% Bitcoin Recovery Rule Bitcoin dropped to a yearly low near $61,300 in early February during a broad market sell-off that spread across both crypto and traditional risk assets. That has been the most recent bottom for this year, and the cryptocurrency has mostly held up above this point despite multiple calls of new bottoms below $50,000 from multiple analysts. A dataset highlighted by market participant Isaiah Douglass has brought attention to Bitcoin’s recovery after this low. The claim is that once Bitcoin recovers 30% from a cycle low, it has never gone back to retest that low. The pattern appears unusually consistent when looking back across Bitcoin’s major cycle. From November 2011 to August 2024, every major Bitcoin cycle low has produced the same outcome: once the price climbed 30% above the bottom, that low was permanently left behind. The earliest example came in November 2011, when Bitcoin bottomed at $2.01. The 30% recovery level of $2.61 was cleared in February 2012, and Bitcoin went on to peak at $1,163, a gain of more than 57,000%. The pattern held through the January 2015 low of $152, the March 2020 crash low of $3,858, and the June 2022 low of $17,592. Even the November 2022 low of $15,460, set in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, followed the same trajectory. Bitcoin Cycle Lows And 30% Recovery. Source: @IDFinancial On X Next Confirmation Level For Bitcoin Now, the current cycle is nearing that same line of no return. The current setup and projection is based on the year-to-date low of $61,303. A 30% recovery from that figure places the confirmation level at $79,694. Bitcoin has already climbed to $79,000 this week, leaving it just a fraction below a level that has historically separated uncertainty from early bull market conviction. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,620, which means that it has recovered approximately 28% from that low. All it needs now is a further 2.7% increase until it crosses a level of no return. The historical data gains additional weight when measured against current market structure. Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to new lows, while whale accumulation over the past 30 days reached its largest monthly total since 2013, with large addresses adding approximately 270,000 BTC. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

25 Apr 2026, 22:20

Solana struggles below $88 as sellers pressure price

🚀 Solana price stuck below $88 as selling pressure increases. Short-term rallies in $SOL lack momentum amid resistance at $88.30. 📉 Critical data: Failure to break $88 may lead to drops toward $80. Continue Reading: Solana struggles below $88 as sellers pressure price The post Solana struggles below $88 as sellers pressure price appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

25 Apr 2026, 22:20

38 Attorneys General Back Massachusetts Lawsuit Against Kalshi Over Prediction Markets

State gambling enforcement against Kalshi is being challenged as 38 attorneys general back Massachusetts’ lawsuit. The case could shape whether states can enforce gambling licensing rules against event contracts. Key Takeaways: Coalition of 38 attorneys general supports Massachusetts lawsuit alleging Kalshi enables unlicensed sports betting activity. CFTC filing adds to the dispute as federal regulator

25 Apr 2026, 22:03

Teucrium launches first 2x leveraged BNB ETF at US exchanges

🚀 Teucrium launches the first US 2x leveraged ETF for $BNB, named XBNB. ETF delivers double the daily performance of BNB futures, both gains and losses. Continue Reading: Teucrium launches first 2x leveraged BNB ETF at US exchanges The post Teucrium launches first 2x leveraged BNB ETF at US exchanges appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

25 Apr 2026, 22:00

GALA breakout gains traction as volume spikes 466% – Short-term hype?

GALA's breakout holds as volume surges and inflows decline, easing sell pressure.