hodler

2 Mar 2026, 11:25

Trump’s crypto portfolio drops below $1 million, sinks over 90% since inauguration

President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency holdings have plunged since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, falling below the $1 million mark. The drop marks a sharp reversal from the optimism that surrounded his return to the White House and his crypto-friendly stance. According to data from Arkham Intelligence , the portfolio comprising crypto holdings linked to a public wallet address attributed to Trump was valued at $11.49 million on inauguration day but has since fallen to $704,845 as of press time. This represents a net decline of $10.76 million, or about 94%. Crypto portfolio associated with President Donald Trump. Source: Arkham A breakdown of the portfolio shows that TROG, once the largest holding at $5.38 million, has dropped to $212,460 after a 96% price decline from $0.000026 to $0.000001, with holdings unchanged at 210.35 billion tokens. The TRUMP token fell 98.6% from $2.76 to $0.039, cutting its value from $1.6 million to $22,470, while holdings remained at 579,290 units. GUA declined 99.1% from $0.00038 to $0.0000034, shrinking from $532,520 to $4,690, with 1.39 billion tokens still held. Meanwhile, Ethereum ( ETH ) and Wrapped Ethereum also weighed on performance. ETH dropped from $1.64 million to $13,060 as holdings were reduced from 495.83 to 6.65 alongside a 40.4% price decline. WETH fell from $1.59 million to $879 after units were cut from 482.22 to 0.45. Why Trump crypto portfolio has taken a hit The decline in Trump’s cryptocurrency portfolio reflects broader market volatility and asset-specific pressures. Meme coins such as TROG, driven largely by political hype and speculation, slumped as enthusiasm faded, triggering heavy sell-offs and liquidity drains. Additionally, significant ETH liquidations point to strategic sales or reallocations during a wider crypto correction fueled by economic headwinds. By late 2025 and early 2026, bearish sentiment had taken hold, with altcoins and meme tokens hit hardest as investor risk appetite weakened. The losses contrast sharply with expectations surrounding Trump’s return to office in January 2025, when a pro-crypto stance and promises of lighter regulation and blockchain support sparked optimism and early rallies in related tokens. Analysts had projected strong first-year gains driven by political tailwinds and adoption momentum. However, as policy changes fell short of aggressive deregulation hopes, amid congressional gridlock and global economic pressures, the anticipated surge failed to materialize, accelerating the portfolio’s reversal. Featured image via Shutterstock The post Trump’s crypto portfolio drops below $1 million, sinks over 90% since inauguration appeared first on Finbold .

2 Mar 2026, 11:22

Bitcoin Holds Steady as Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Rebound

Bitcoin stabilizes within the $60,000–$70,000 range despite recent sell-offs and macro risks. Technical indicators like the RSI suggest that a short-term price rally may be emerging. Continue Reading: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Rebound The post Bitcoin Holds Steady as Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Rebound appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

2 Mar 2026, 11:20

USD/INR Exchange Rate Soars to Monthly Peak as US Dollar Stages Fierce Rally Amid US-Iran Conflict

BitcoinWorld USD/INR Exchange Rate Soars to Monthly Peak as US Dollar Stages Fierce Rally Amid US-Iran Conflict The USD/INR currency pair surged to a fresh monthly high on Thursday, March 13, 2025, as the US Dollar staged a powerful global rally fueled by escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran. This significant move underscores the profound impact geopolitical instability exerts on foreign exchange markets, particularly for emerging market currencies like the Indian Rupee. Consequently, traders and policymakers are now closely monitoring the situation for its potential long-term effects on trade, inflation, and capital flows. USD/INR Exchange Rate Reaches Critical Monthly High The USD/INR pair breached a key technical resistance level, trading at its highest point in over thirty days. Market data from major financial terminals confirmed the pair’s sharp ascent during the Asian and European trading sessions. This movement primarily reflects a broad-based safe-haven bid for the US Dollar, a typical market reaction during periods of international conflict. Historically, the Dollar Index (DXY) often strengthens when global risk appetite diminishes, as investors seek the perceived safety and liquidity of US Treasury assets. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee, like many peers, faces selling pressure under such conditions due to concerns over imported inflation and potential foreign portfolio outflows. Geopolitical Catalyst: The US-Iran Conflict Escalation The immediate trigger for the forex volatility stems from a significant escalation in hostilities. On March 12, 2025, confirmed reports indicated a direct military engagement between US and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. This event marks a dangerous new phase in long-standing regional tensions. Geopolitical analysts note that conflicts in oil-rich regions invariably trigger volatility across multiple asset classes. Crude oil prices have already spiked, adding further pressure on India’s current account deficit given the nation’s status as a major oil importer. This dual pressure—a stronger dollar and higher import costs—creates a challenging environment for the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy framework. Expert Analysis on Market Mechanics Senior forex strategists from leading international banks have provided context for the move. “The USD/INR move is a textbook example of a risk-off shock,” explained one strategist, whose firm manages over $2 trillion in assets. “Capital flows are shifting rapidly. We observe selling in emerging market equities and bonds, with proceeds being converted back into Dollars. The Rupee’s relative liquidity makes it a proxy for broader EM sentiment.” Furthermore, analysts reference historical precedents, such as the market reactions following the 2020 Iran crisis or the initial 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the DXY also saw pronounced rallies. However, they caution that the sustained trajectory will depend on the conflict’s duration and the subsequent policy responses from global central banks. Broader Impacts on the Indian Economy A sustained higher USD/INR rate carries significant implications. Primarily, it increases the cost of India’s imports, notably crude oil, electronics, and gold . This scenario poses a direct threat to the country’s inflation management goals. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may face a complex dilemma: intervening to support the currency could deplete foreign reserves, while raising interest rates to attract capital could stifle domestic economic growth. The following table outlines key immediate impacts: Sector Potential Impact Importers Higher input costs, reduced profit margins. Exporters Short-term competitiveness boost; long-term uncertainty. Monetary Policy Complicated inflation targeting for the RBI. Foreign Investment Risk of capital flight from Indian markets. Additionally, companies with substantial foreign currency debt will see their repayment burdens increase. Conversely, sectors like IT services and pharmaceuticals, which earn significant revenue in US Dollars, might experience a temporary accounting benefit from favorable conversion rates. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis Examining past episodes provides crucial perspective. The USD/INR pair has experienced similar spikes during previous geopolitical events and US Dollar strengthening cycles. For instance, during the 2013 “Taper Tantrum,” the Rupee depreciated sharply as global liquidity tightened. Similarly, the US-China trade war phases in 2018-2019 induced volatility. However, the current situation uniquely combines military conflict with existing global macroeconomic headwinds, including moderating growth in major economies. This confluence of factors suggests the market’s reaction could be more pronounced and persistent. Technical analysts are now watching several key Fibonacci retracement levels to gauge potential support zones for the INR if geopolitical pressures begin to ease. The Role of Central Bank Policies The response of monetary authorities will be pivotal. The US Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a dominant driver for the Dollar’s strength. If the conflict fuels broader inflationary pressures, the Fed may maintain a restrictive policy for longer, further supporting the USD. Conversely, the RBI has a toolkit including direct intervention in spot and forward markets, as well as verbal guidance to manage volatility. The central bank’s substantial foreign exchange reserves, exceeding $600 billion, provide a significant buffer to smooth disorderly market movements. Market participants will scrutinize any statements from the RBI for clues on its tolerance level for the currency’s depreciation. Conclusion The surge in the USD/INR exchange rate to a fresh monthly high is a direct consequence of the US Dollar’s rally amid escalating US-Iran tensions. This development highlights the intricate link between geopolitics and global finance, particularly for emerging market economies like India. While a weaker Rupee offers some advantages for exporters, the broader implications for inflation, corporate debt, and financial stability present considerable challenges. Moving forward, the currency pair’s trajectory will hinge on the evolution of the conflict, subsequent policy actions from the RBI and Fed, and the overall shift in global risk sentiment. Market participants must therefore prepare for continued volatility as these complex dynamics unfold. FAQs Q1: Why does the US Dollar strengthen during geopolitical conflicts? A1: The US Dollar is considered the world’s primary reserve currency and a safe-haven asset. During times of global uncertainty or conflict, investors seek safety and liquidity, often selling riskier assets and buying US Treasury bonds, which increases demand for the Dollar. Q2: How does a higher USD/INR rate affect the common person in India? A2: A higher USD/INR rate makes imported goods more expensive, which can increase the prices of fuel, electronics, and other imported items. This can contribute to higher overall inflation, reducing purchasing power. It may also make overseas education and travel more costly. Q3: What can the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) do to support the Rupee? A3: The RBI can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its reserves to increase the supply of Dollars and support the Rupee. It can also use monetary policy tools, like interest rates, to make Indian assets more attractive to foreign investors. Q4: Are there any beneficiaries from a weaker Indian Rupee? A4: Yes, export-oriented sectors like information technology (IT), pharmaceuticals, and textiles benefit as their products become cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting their revenue in Rupee terms. Families receiving remittances from abroad also get more Rupees for each Dollar sent. Q5: How long might this USD/INR volatility last? A5: The duration of volatility is directly tied to the geopolitical situation. If tensions de-escalate quickly, the market may stabilize. However, a prolonged conflict or further escalation could lead to sustained pressure on the Rupee until there is a clear resolution or a significant shift in global capital flows. This post USD/INR Exchange Rate Soars to Monthly Peak as US Dollar Stages Fierce Rally Amid US-Iran Conflict first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

2 Mar 2026, 11:19

High Risk Zone? Analysts Split as Bitcoin (BTC) Ignores Geopolitical Chaos

Bitcoin’s reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend was limited, even as traditional markets reacted more sharply. BTC slipped to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a volatile range between roughly $63,000 and $68,000, as markets responded to rising US-Iran tensions and reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike. Despite the intense, volatile backdrop, market commentators say that the conflict has not changed Bitcoin’s trajectory. High Risk Zone In a post on X, Mr. Wall Street stated that “nothing changed with the new war.” He said that he does not believe the cycle bottom is in at $60,000. According to him, the cycle bottom will form later this year, around $45,000, but only after Bitcoin first rallies to the $80,000-$85,000 range. The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term, bearish in the mid-term. This indicates that while geopolitical shocks may create volatility, he does not believe they invalidate the expectation of a near-term pump followed by a deeper corrective phase. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Doctor Profit, also maintained that the war does not alter his broader bearish positioning. He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in an absolute high risk zone” and that the market has not bottomed yet. “The war changes nothing in my bearish outlook for Crypto and Stocks.” He also added that he remains fully bearish and that his “big short” has remained open since September. Both analysts, despite differing on short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical escalation has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market theses. US-Iran Conflict Already Priced In? Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already been pricing in the US-Iran conflict throughout the previous week. He went on to explain that markets cannot fall much further because the event was largely anticipated , but pointed to uncertainty around the length of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, stock futures, which Bitcoin tends to follow, would probably open negatively, and could potentially recover as soon as de-escalation talks emerge. They said a prolonged conflict is unlikely, citing concerns that extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices higher and spike US CPI inflation, something they do not expect to occur. The strategy is to wait for Monday’s stock market reaction. As such, if there is a sharp sell-off, they would long Bitcoin around $61,000-$60,000 ahead of de-escalation news. On the other hand, if there is only a slight decline, sideways movement, or a pump, they would delay entering a long position until later in the week. The post High Risk Zone? Analysts Split as Bitcoin (BTC) Ignores Geopolitical Chaos appeared first on CryptoPotato .

2 Mar 2026, 11:15

Safe-Haven Flows Surge: Global Markets React to US-Israel Attack on Iran

BitcoinWorld Safe-Haven Flows Surge: Global Markets React to US-Israel Attack on Iran Global financial markets experienced dramatic safe-haven flows on April 14, 2025, following confirmed military strikes by US and Israeli forces against Iranian military infrastructure, triggering immediate capital flight from risk assets toward traditional shelters. Safe-Haven Flows Reshape Global Asset Allocation Market participants rapidly repositioned portfolios after the military escalation. Consequently, traditional safe-haven assets recorded significant inflows. Gold prices surged 4.2% in Asian trading hours, reaching $2,450 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed 1.8% against a basket of major currencies. These movements reflect typical investor behavior during geopolitical crises. Analysts from major financial institutions immediately published assessments. For instance, Goldman Sachs analysts noted, “Historical patterns suggest initial safe-haven flows typically persist for 5-10 trading days following Middle East escalations.” Similarly, Bloomberg data shows similar surges occurred during the 2020 US-Iran tensions and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict onset. Traditional Assets Versus Cryptocurrency Reactions Traditional safe havens demonstrated predictable strength. US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year note dropping 15 basis points. Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc also gained substantially. However, cryptocurrency markets displayed more complex behavior. Bitcoin initially dropped 7% before recovering half its losses, illustrating its evolving but unstable safe-haven narrative. Market analysts observe divergent cryptocurrency responses. Some investors treat Bitcoin as digital gold during crises. Others view it as a risk asset vulnerable to broad market sell-offs. This dual nature creates volatility. Ethereum and other major altcoins followed similar volatile patterns, generally underperforming traditional havens during the initial shock. Asset Performance Following Geopolitical Event Asset Initial 6-Hour Change 24-Hour Change Gold (XAU/USD) +4.2% +3.8% US Dollar Index +1.8% +1.5% Bitcoin (BTC/USD) -7.0% -2.5% 10-Year Treasury Yield -15 bps -12 bps S&P 500 Futures -3.5% -2.8% Expert Analysis on Market Psychology Dr. Elena Rodriguez, geopolitical risk strategist at the Center for Strategic Studies, explains the market mechanics. “Investors follow established crisis protocols,” she states. “First, they reduce equity exposure. Next, they increase liquidity through cash and short-term government debt. Finally, they allocate to non-correlated assets like gold.” This process creates the observed safe-haven flows. Historical context supports this analysis. The 1990 Gulf War triggered similar movements, though smaller in magnitude. Modern electronic trading accelerates these flows. Algorithmic systems detect news keywords and execute pre-programmed safe-haven strategies within milliseconds, amplifying initial price movements. Regional Market Impacts and Oil Price Dynamics Middle Eastern markets experienced the most direct impact. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index fell 5.1% at opening. Dubai’s DFM dropped 4.7%. Regional currencies faced pressure despite oil price gains. Brent crude oil initially jumped 8% to $98 per barrel, raising global inflation concerns. However, prices later moderated on announced strategic reserve releases. European and Asian markets responded according to their exposure. German DAX futures indicated a 3.2% decline. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.9% during its session. Emerging market currencies particularly suffered as capital flowed to USD assets. The Turkish Lira and South African Rand both lost over 2% against the dollar. Long-Term Implications for Portfolio Strategy Financial advisors immediately issued client guidance. They recommended several portfolio adjustments: Increase gold allocation to 5-10% of portfolios Maintain higher cash positions for potential buying opportunities Reduce emerging market exposure until volatility subsides Consider defensive equity sectors like utilities and consumer staples These safe-haven flows may persist depending on conflict developments. Monitoring diplomatic channels becomes crucial. The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency session, potentially influencing market directions. Additionally, OPEC+ emergency meetings could address oil production levels. Cryptocurrency’s Evolving Safe-Haven Status Bitcoin’s mixed reaction sparks debate about its crisis role. Proponents highlight its recovery from initial lows. Critics note its underperformance versus gold. Blockchain analytics show large wallet accumulations during the dip, suggesting some investors view it as a buying opportunity. This behavior mirrors 2022 patterns during Ukraine conflict onset. Regulatory responses may influence cryptocurrency flows. US Treasury officials indicated no immediate changes to digital asset policies. However, they monitor potential sanction evasion risks. European regulators echoed similar positions. These statements provided some market stability after initial panic selling. Conclusion Safe-haven flows dominated global markets following the military action, demonstrating established crisis response patterns. Traditional assets like gold and USD strengthened predictably. Cryptocurrency markets showed volatility but partial recovery. Market participants now monitor diplomatic developments closely, as further escalation could extend these safe-haven flows while de-escalation might trigger rapid reversals. Portfolio diversification across uncorrelated assets remains the prudent strategy during such geopolitical uncertainty. FAQs Q1: What are safe-haven flows in financial markets? Safe-haven flows refer to capital movements from risky investments to assets perceived as stable during crises. These typically include gold, US Treasuries, the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc. Q2: How long do safe-haven flows typically last after geopolitical events? Historical analysis suggests initial intense flows last 5-10 trading days. However, duration depends entirely on conflict development. De-escalation can reverse flows quickly, while escalation extends them. Q3: Why did Bitcoin drop initially despite being called “digital gold”? Bitcoin maintains dual characteristics. Some investors treat it as a safe haven, others as a risk asset. During initial panic, risk-off sentiment often dominates, causing selling. Subsequent buying from “digital gold” believers frequently creates recovery. Q4: Which assets benefit most from Middle East geopolitical tensions? Gold typically shows the strongest positive correlation. Oil prices also surge initially. Defense sector stocks often gain on increased military spending expectations. US dollar and government bonds consistently attract flows. Q5: How should retail investors adjust portfolios during such events? Financial advisors recommend against panic selling. Instead, they suggest rebalancing toward predetermined safe-haven allocations, maintaining emergency cash reserves, and avoiding dramatic portfolio changes based on short-term volatility. This post Safe-Haven Flows Surge: Global Markets React to US-Israel Attack on Iran first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

2 Mar 2026, 11:15

Expect Bitcoin boost and fiat weakness when Fed adjusts to US-Iran conflict, Hayes argues

Arthur Hayes, a co-founder of BitMEX, i s us ing geopolitical flashpoints as a crypto macroplay once more. In his most recent Substack essay, “iOS Warfare,” he makes the argument that a prolonged military invasion of Iran by the United States will almost certainly compel the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive monetary accommodation, with Bitcoin positioned to profit as fiat debasement picks up speed. The piece argues that going back 40 years, every major US military operation in the Middle East has ended with the Fed loosening monetary policy. He sees no reason why a conflict with Iran would be any different. A pattern going back decades Hayes provided evidence of three earlier conflicts. Despite rising oil prices driving inflation during the 1990 Gulf War, the Fed promptly lowered interest rates in November and December after originally holding them unchanged. In an effort to boost confidence in the face of declining asset values following 9/11, Alan Greenspan issued an emergency 50 basis point decrease in 2001. With interest rates already at zero, the Fed initiated quantitative easing during Obama’s 2009 Afghanistan surge to generate almost limitless money for defense contractors and the war effort. The hidden cost of war Hayes argues that the public always pays the price for conflict, which is a “net energy loss”. Money moving from everyday consumers to military operations, in this case, what he called “offensive agentic AI weapons”, causes inflation, which is a hidden tax on all. Iran is in a particularly precarious position when it comes to foreign trade, he noted. The country has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz , a narrow waterway that transports about 20% of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption there would shock the energy markets. According to Hayes, this economic pressure provides the Fed with “political cover” to drastically loosen monetary policy, justifying any rate reduction as being required to fund what he called the transformation of Iran into an American “vassal state. ” However, it is not how everyone views it. Many mainstream economists caution that a significant escalation with Iran would not pave the way for Fed rate cuts in 2026, but would destroy any chance of them. According to Boston College economist Brian Bethune, the argument for lower rates is “evaporating right before our very eyes” because the conflict’s increased oil prices, along with the harsh tariffs currently in place, will keep inflation persistently high. According to him, these are typical supply-side shocks that raise prices everywhere, and the Fed’s standard instruments aren’t designed to address that kind of issue; they’re meant to address demand, not supply disruptions. “In this situation, the Fed can’t lower rates,” he stated. Even little rises in crude prices, such as the $10 per barrel hikes this year, can raise consumer-price inflation by 0.2% to 0.4% in the next year, according to Scott Anderson of BMO Capital Markets. A protracted conflict could exacerbate inflation, which might force the Fed to hold rates steady or even rise rather than ease, given that core PCE is already approaching 3.1% in early 2026. While a full oil crisis isn’t assured, Christopher Granville of TS Lombard pointed out that a “oil squall” akin to the one that followed the invasion of Ukraine, in which prices spiked above $100 per barrel for months, might establish a long-lasting risk premium and make inflation stickier and more difficult for the Fed to control. Hayes warned investors against jumping in too soon, despite his optimistic long-term outlook on Bitcoin . Bitcoin was around $66,200 at the time he wrote the piece. He recommended holding off on making more purchases until the Fed gave a clear signal, such as announcing a rate cut or printing more money. Hayes’s takeaway : When things get nasty, have patience. Hold onto your cash and wait for unambiguous indications that the Fed is relaxing, rather than chasing the hype. At that point, you turn global drama into a traditional inflation play by loading up on Bitcoin and your finest investments. Claim your free seat in an exclusive crypto trading community - limited to 1,000 members.