hodler

17 Jan 2026, 13:00

Figure: A Compelling Rally As Loan Volumes Accelerate

Summary Figure Technologies remains a buy as strong Q4 operating data signals accelerating growth and robust momentum. Consumer loan marketplace volumes surged 131% y/y to $2.71B in Q4, setting up for a likely revenue beat. YLDS stablecoin issuance exploded, growing 198% month-on-month in December, positioning FIGR for outsized 2026 revenue gains. Despite a 36x forward EBITDA multiple, FIGR offers growth at a reasonable price as adoption and margins expand. The mood in the stock markets to kick off 2026 is decidedly nervous. Investors continue to back away from large-cap tech stocks, burdened by heavy valuations after last year's sharp rally. In the wake of a potential market rotation, I continue to emphasize single-stock selection, particularly in stocks that have compelling growth opportunities and yet still trade at reasonable prices. Figure Technologies ( FIGR ) is an example of a stock that got caught up in the crosswinds of a declining cryptocurrency market, though its blockchain lending technology has little bearing on overall crypto market caps. Recently, however, its stock has shown more adamant divergence against that weakness, especially after a recent results pre-release that showed acceleration on key metrics. Data by YCharts I last wrote a buy article on Figure in November, when the stock was last trading at $37 per share. Since then, my position in the name has approximately doubled. Now, we do have to exercise caution here. In the space of just a month, Figure has vaulted from being a choppy post-IPO trader to a momentum stock. I'm not pulling the plug on my gains yet, but we do have to watch out for the fact that the stock is no longer a value play. That said, with strong operating data and a positive fundamental setup for the remainder of the year, I retain my buy rating here. Consumer loan marketplace volumes shoot up, YLDS issuance jumps Let's first discuss the primary news that shot Figure Technologies up higher in January. On January 12, the company announced preliminary Q4 operating data (similar to how many trading companies like Robinhood ( HOOD ) or Coinbase ( COIN ) release monthly trading metrics) that showcased a clear uptick in core KPIs. The results are shown below: Figure key Q4 operating data (Figure January press release) Figure's consumer loan marketplace volume shot up 131% y/y to $2.71 billion in the fourth quarter, accelerating sharply versus 70% y/y growth in Q3. As a reminder to give context on how Figure earns revenue, Figure's core business lies in HELOCs (home equity lines of credit). Its technology enables lenders to utilize the blockchain to originate loans. The chart below gives a refresher on the borrowing process through the Figure platform. Lenders utilizing Figure typically close within a median of 10 days (but as little as 5 days), versus an industry average of 42 days based on manual processes. The speed of these transactions (and the associated cost reductions for lenders) is driven by utilizing automated processes to value homes (collateral) and verify title and borrower income streams, rather than a human underwriter. Figure loan process (Figure IPO prospectus) Figure's additional differentiation exists in allowing lenders to "tokenize" these loans into blockchain assets, which can then be packaged and sold via blockchain, similar to traditional mortgage-backed securities. To date, Figure's revenue streams primarily consist of fees on loan origination, fees on loan servicing, and the gains it makes from unloading tokenized loans it holds on its own balance sheet. As such, consumer loan marketplace originations (the data that Figure just reported) is the number-one KPI that is catalyzing revenue growth. The company hasn't reported revenue yet for Q4 (we expect the formal results in mid-February), but we can surmise with this pre-release of data that Figure is set up for a meaningful beat. In Q3, as shown below, the company had achieved only 70% in consumer marketplace loan growth and 42% in revenue growth. Figure Q3 highlights (Figure Q3 earnings deck) We expect a correspondingly sharp jump in revenue growth in Q4, alongside the burst in consumer loan volumes. The other key data for us to zoom in on is issuance trends for the company's stablecoin, YLDS. Now, YLDS is a relatively small market-cap stablecoin next to some of its larger and better-known rivals, like USDT (the largest) and USDC (second largest). USDC is sponsored by Circle ( CRCL ), a public company, and so we also have reported trends on issuance for Figure's rivals. Circle recently reported that through Q3, total stablecoin circulation of $254 billion rose 59% y/y, while USDC rose 108% y/y to $73.7 billion (roughly 29% market share). Stablecoin issuance trends (Circle Q3 earnings deck) An up-to-date scan on CoinMarketCap shows that USDC issuance has since grown to $76 billion in market cap, representing only single-digit sequential growth and ~73% y/y growth (versus $43.9 billion in circulation in Q4 of 2024). Top crypto market caps (CoinMarketCap) Figure, meanwhile, just reported December-end YLDS circulation growing to $328 million. There isn't any y/y comparison here since YLDS just launched in 2025, but December grew 198% month-on-month and by more than 15x quarter-over-quarter (versus only $21 million in issuance at the end of September). In other words, Figure-backed YLDS is rapidly gaining market share against the #1 and #2 coins. Rising YLDS issuance will be a key revenue driver for Figure in 2026. Interest rate declines will weigh on the company's net interest income (earned from Figure holding U.S. treasury securities on the cash that users deposit in exchange for YLDS tokens), but the rapid rise in issuance will more than offset weaker interest rates. Valuation and key takeaways Now, we will mention our principal concern: valuation. After the stock's sharp recent rally in January, Figure has attained a premium among blockchain/crypto stocks. As shown in the chart below, Figure is now sitting at a 36x forward adjusted EBITDA. This is richer than Circle (the USDC parent) and is sitting at roughly double the valuation of Coinbase, the crypto wallet and trading platform that has been slammed by the falling prices of Bitcoin and other altcoins. Data by YCharts Figure is no longer a value stock, but I still consider the name to be a "growth at a reasonable price" play, especially as adoption of its technologies is still quite nascent (as evidenced by consumer loan volumes still growing at a 134% y/y pace in December). In my view, the upcoming full Q4 earnings release will showcase strong acceleration in revenue and lead to meaningful adjusted EBITDA margin expansion that will also help to compress forward multiples down. Stay long here and keep riding Figure's rally upward.

17 Jan 2026, 12:55

Hedera Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path to a $0.5 Milestone

BitcoinWorld Hedera Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path to a $0.5 Milestone As the distributed ledger technology landscape evolves beyond its first decade, the Hedera Hashgraph network and its HBAR cryptocurrency present a compelling case study in enterprise-grade blockchain adoption. This analysis provides a structured, evidence-based examination of HBAR’s potential price trajectory from 2026 through 2030, specifically addressing the widely discussed $0.5 threshold. Market data from Q1 2025 indicates continued institutional interest in hashgraph technology, particularly for supply chain and identity verification applications. Hedera Price Prediction: Foundation and Methodology Any credible cryptocurrency price prediction requires multiple analytical frameworks. Consequently, this examination employs three primary methodologies: technical analysis of historical price action, fundamental analysis of network growth metrics, and comparative analysis against broader market trends. The Governing Council’s ongoing expansion provides crucial institutional validation. Furthermore, real-world transaction volume on the Hedera mainnet serves as a tangible growth indicator separate from speculative trading activity. Historical performance shows HBAR establishing stronger support levels with each market cycle. Network upgrades, including scheduled consensus algorithm improvements, directly impact transaction efficiency and cost. These technological fundamentals create the underlying value proposition. Market analysts from firms like CoinShares and Messari consistently highlight transaction finality speed and carbon-negative operations as key differentiators in institutional reports. Quantitative Models and Historical Patterns Statistical models based on adoption curves suggest correlation between enterprise use cases and token valuation. The table below summarizes key network metrics that influence long-term price models: Metric Current Status (2025) Projected Growth Driver Average Daily Transactions Millions scale Enterprise DApp migration Governing Council Members 30+ multinationals Expansion to 39 by 2027 Staked HBAR Percentage Increasing quarterly Network security enhancement HBAR Price Trajectory: 2026 Analysis The year 2026 represents the first major inflection point in this prediction timeline. By this period, several currently developing enterprise projects should reach full production deployment. Market analysts anticipate these developments could catalyze increased network utility demand. Regulatory clarity expected across major jurisdictions may further accelerate institutional participation. However, macroeconomic factors including interest rate environments will simultaneously influence all digital asset valuations. Technical analysis of price charts identifies several potential resistance and support zones. The $0.25 to $0.35 range appears as a significant technical barrier based on historical volume profiles. Conversely, sustained network development could establish a higher foundational floor price. Transaction fee economics and staking reward structures will play crucial roles in determining miner and validator incentives, thereby affecting circulating supply dynamics. Network Utility Growth: Expansion of Hedera Token Service and Consensus Service implementations. Market Cycle Position: Historical patterns suggest potential alignment with broader crypto market cycles. Regulatory Development: Expected frameworks for enterprise blockchain deployments. The 2027 Outlook and Mid-Term Projections Projecting to 2027 requires examining technology adoption curves and competitor landscape evolution. The enterprise blockchain sector may experience consolidation, potentially benefiting established networks with proven track records. Hedera’s unique hashgraph consensus mechanism offers distinct advantages for specific use cases requiring high throughput and deterministic finality. These advantages could translate to preferential adoption in sectors like: Global supply chain management platforms Digital identity verification systems Carbon credit tracking and ESG reporting Micropayment infrastructures for IoT devices Comparative analysis with similar layer-1 networks suggests valuation multiples based on transaction volume and developer activity. The HBAR treasury’s scheduled release schedule also introduces predictable supply-side variables. Consequently, price models must account for both organic demand growth and controlled supply inflation. Historical data indicates that networks achieving critical mass in enterprise adoption often experience non-linear valuation growth as network effects accelerate. Expert Consensus and Diverging Views Industry reports from Gartner and Forrester provide context for enterprise adoption timelines. While optimistic projections exist, conservative analyses emphasize the highly competitive nature of the layer-1 blockchain space. Some financial analysts caution that technological superiority does not guarantee market dominance, citing historical examples from various tech sectors. Nevertheless, the consensus acknowledges Hedera’s strong positioning within regulated industry verticals where its governance model provides distinct compliance advantages. 2030 Horizon: The Path to $0.5 and Beyond The $0.5 price level represents a significant psychological and technical milestone, approximately representing a specific market capitalization threshold relative to current valuations. Achieving this target by 2030 would require sustained compound growth across multiple metrics. Fundamentally, this growth depends on the network capturing meaningful market share in the enterprise DLT sector, which various consultancies project could reach trillion-dollar valuation by the decade’s end. Scenario analysis reveals multiple potential pathways. A bullish scenario involves accelerated regulatory adoption and technological integration across financial services. A baseline scenario assumes steady, incremental growth aligned with overall market expansion. A conservative scenario accounts for increased competition or unforeseen technological disruptions. Each scenario carries different implications for the timing and sustainability of price levels above $0.5. The network’s ability to maintain its energy efficiency advantage and low transaction costs will be critical differentiators. Long-term valuation models often incorporate discounted cash flow methodologies adapted for utility tokens. These models consider projected transaction fee revenue, staking yields, and token velocity. While inherently speculative, they provide structured frameworks for evaluation. The increasing institutional participation in network governance through the Hedera Governing Council reduces certain systemic risks associated with decentralized networks, potentially warranting valuation premiums in traditional financial models. Conclusion This Hedera price prediction analysis for 2026 through 2030 demonstrates that the $0.5 threshold represents a challenging but plausible milestone under specific conditions of network adoption and market development. The HBAR price trajectory will fundamentally depend on real-world utility growth rather than speculative trading activity. Continued expansion of the Governing Council, increasing transaction volumes, and successful enterprise deployments provide the most reliable indicators for long-term valuation growth. While market volatility remains inevitable, Hedera’s unique technological and governance foundations position it distinctly within the evolving blockchain ecosystem. Investors and observers should monitor network metrics with equal priority to price movements, as these fundamentals ultimately drive sustainable value. FAQs Q1: What is the most important factor for HBAR’s price reaching $0.5? The primary factor is substantial growth in real-world, enterprise-level transaction volume on the Hedera network, moving beyond speculation to utility-driven demand for the HBAR token. Q2: How does Hedera’s governance model affect its price potential? The Governing Council model provides stability and institutional trust, which can reduce perceived risk for enterprise adopters. This structured governance could support more predictable long-term growth compared to entirely decentralized networks. Q3: What are the main risks to this Hedera price prediction? Key risks include increased competition from other layer-1 networks, broader cryptocurrency market downturns, slower-than-expected enterprise adoption, and technological challenges in scaling while maintaining security and decentralization. Q4: How does staking HBAR influence its future price? Staking reduces circulating supply available for trading and enhances network security. As more HBAR is staked for network consensus and rewards, the available liquid supply decreases, which can create upward price pressure if demand remains constant or increases. Q5: Could HBAR surpass $0.5 before 2030? While possible under exceptionally bullish market conditions and accelerated adoption, most analytical models suggest sustained growth toward that milestone throughout the latter half of this decade rather than a sudden spike, barring unforeseen major partnerships or technological breakthroughs. This post Hedera Price Prediction 2026-2030: The Realistic Path to a $0.5 Milestone first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

17 Jan 2026, 12:54

Scam Alert: $282 Million in Bitcoin and Litecoin Lost

Monero is well-featured after a hacker stole $282 million in Bitcoin and Litecoin and converted to XMR among others.

17 Jan 2026, 12:48

California fines Nexo $500K as crypto lenders face scrutiny

Crypto lending platform Nexo faces a half-million-dollar penalty from California regulators for making thousands of loans without proper licensing, throwing cold water on the company’s plans to restart operations in the United States. The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation slapped Nexo with a $500,000 fine after discovering the firm gave out crypto-backed loans to more than 5,456 people in the state without getting the necessary approvals first. Regulators say the company also skipped basic steps like checking if borrowers could actually pay back the money. What regulators found The enforcement action targets a Cayman Islands-based part of Nexo called Nexo Capital Inc. Officials found the company handed out both personal and business loans backed by cryptocurrency between July 26, 2018, and November 22, 2022, all while operating without a valid California license. “Lenders must follow the law and avoid making risky loans that endanger consumers—and crypto-backed loans are no exception,” said KC Mohseni, who runs the state financial department. Regulators discovered Nexo didn’t bother looking into whether borrowers had the money to repay loans, what other debts they already owed, or what their credit looked like. These are standard checks that traditional lenders must perform before handing out money. Beyond paying the fine, Nexo must move all California customer money to a properly licensed U.S. partner company within the next 150 days. The punishment comes at a bad time for Nexo. The corporation has been indicating that it wants to return to the American market, but this action raises concerns about whether existing problems will continue to hinder that effort. Although the punishment is for previous actions, it comes at a time when digital currency startups are questioning whether regulators are softening their stance. California carries significant weight in these areas. It is the country’s largest state in terms of population and economic activity, making it an important market for any company that provides consumer financial services. What happens in California often foreshadows how things will unfold nationally. During the time period regulators examined, Nexo grew its crypto-backed lending business substantially before eventually pulling out of the U.S. market altogether. The company left as state and federal officials increased their scrutiny of how it operated. Questions about Nexo’s future These days, Nexo no longer offers its traditional crypto lending products to American customers. It only provides crypto-backed borrowing services to people outside the United States, a change that came after multiple run-ins with regulators. Kadan Stadelmann, who works as Chief Technology Officer at Komodo Platform, said the findings should worry people. “The fact that Nexo failed basic ability-to-repay checks for thousands undoubtedly raises red flags about systemic compliance shortfalls, and consumers should heed these warnings,” he noted. Stadelmann pointed out that California’s rules focus heavily on making sure loans are backed by enough collateral to protect people from defaults. The state also has strong borrower protections designed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial meltdown, but in the crypto world . He also mentioned that Nexo’s settlement approach, where companies do not admit or deny wrongdoing, helps firms avoid problems like shareholder lawsuits or getting blocked from obtaining future licenses. However, he warned the company “could face further admissions, increasing fines, or regulatory monitors” as officials continue examining its track record. “Other crypto companies have faced similar regulatory penalties, including the likes of FTX and Binance, and remain in business. Why not Nexo?” Stadelmann asked. The California action adds to Nexo’s growing list of regulatory headaches in America and raises fresh questions about whether firms with checkered compliance histories can make a comeback, even if the political winds seem to be shifting in crypto’s favor. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .

17 Jan 2026, 12:44

How crypto investor lost over $280 million to hackers within hours

A major cryptocurrency theft on January 10, 2026, resulted in losses exceeding $280 million after an investor fell victim to a hardware wallet social engineering scam. The incident occurred at around 23:00 UTC and was first detailed by on-chain investigator ZachXBT , who traced the movement of the stolen funds across multiple blockchains. On January 10, 2026 at around 11 pm UTC a victim lost $282M+ worth of LTC & BTC due to a hardware wallet social engineering scam. The attacker began converting the stolen LTC & BTC to Monero via multiple instant exchanges causing the XMR price to sharply increase. BTC was also… — ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 16, 2026 According to ZachXBT’s analysis, the attacker gained access to the victim’s hardware wallet and drained approximately 2.05 million Litecoin ( LTC ) and 1,459 Bitcoin ( BTC ). The stolen assets were rapidly laundered through instant exchanges and cross-chain protocols in an effort to evade tracking. On-chain analysis indicates that a large portion of the stolen Litecoin and Bitcoin was converted into Monero ( XMR ), triggering an abrupt spike in market activity. Price data shows Monero surging by roughly 70% over the four days following the hack, with the chart reflecting a steep rally followed by increased volatility as trading volumes expanded. Further on-chain tracing revealed that part of the Bitcoin was routed through THORChain, where about 818 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $78 million, was swapped into Ethereum ( ETH ), XRP , and additional Litecoin. These transactions spanned several networks, highlighting the growing use of cross-chain liquidity protocols in large-scale laundering attempts. Hacked crypto routing through THORchain. Source: Lookonchain Identity of involved parties The analysis also noted no indications linking the attack to North Korean hacking groups, which have been associated with previous high-profile crypto thefts. The identity of the victim remains unknown, and it is still unclear whether the stolen funds belonged to a single individual or an organization. The incident reinforces warnings from security researchers that social engineering has become the leading cause of major crypto losses. By exploiting trust rather than technical vulnerabilities, attackers are increasingly able to compromise even hardware wallet users, with market disruptions. Featured image via Shutterstock The post How crypto investor lost over $280 million to hackers within hours appeared first on Finbold .

17 Jan 2026, 12:39

Pi token price muted despite ESMA regulatory nod on white paper

Pi Network has formally set foot in the EU. According to reports, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has registered the Pi Network white paper under entry number 549, filed by PiBit Ltd. ESMA is a government agency that keeps an eye on the EU’s financial markets and investment products. By registering the Pi Network white paper, ESMA has given Pi Coin a legal node. However, for Pi Network to achieve full MiCA authorization, it is dependent on whether Pi Network can meet the full scope of EU regulations. The results of rigorous audits, legal assessments, and approvals from relevant authorities will determine it. ESMA props up Pi Network for partnerships in the EU and EEA The registration doesn’t mean that Pi Network is officially a crypto asset right away, but it does mean that it is a legal company that follows EU rules. The asset has to go through other steps, including meeting EU standards on anti-money laundering, data protection, and financial reporting. The recognition comes at a time when authorities are paying more attention to how tokens are issued, how investors are protected, and how open the market is. Germany’s BaFin stopped Ethena Labs from issuing the sUSDe coin in the EU last year because of problems with the rules. The EU has also started to give licenses to crypto and stablecoin issuers that follow MiCA rules. Other organizations that have taken root have failed to comply. As reported by Cryptopolitan, a French regulator revealed that 30% of crypto companies operating in France without a MiCA license are unresponsive. There’s no communication on ​whether they intend to get the licence required under new EU ‌ rules or will cease operating by July. 40% are not ​seeking the license, with only 30% applying for a license Pi points bearish as trading volume plummets 33% Pi Coin price continues to stagnate, even as the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery this January. The Pi Network price has been stagnating at or close to the $0.20 level for several weeks and is unable to go beyond key resistance levels. Pi Coin currently trades over 90% below its all-time price. Bearish trends dominate the chart, and the momentum seems to be weak. It has been trading at approximately 7 million coins daily, which is a small number for a network of this scale. Generally, bullish movement is supported by an increase in volume. Its trading volume is down 33% in the last 24 hours. On a daily basis, approximately $1 million worth of PI enters circulation through mainnet migrations and token unlocks. To date, PI has been locked at more than 4.83 billion, and it is slowly migrating and is influencing the short-term price momentum. Meanwhile, the price of Pi is in a tight range of consolidation. Sharpen your strategy with mentorship + daily ideas - 30 days free access to our trading program