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14 Apr 2026, 18:40

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development warns Iran war could trigger major economic shock in Europe

If the war in Iran drags on, this will have a “serious impact” on the economy, especially in Europe, according to the head of a major regional development bank. The warning comes amid preparations to ease state aid rules in the EU as a measure to help members deal with the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East. EBRD chief expects economic shock if the war continues The military clash in the Persian Gulf is surely going to curb growth and push inflation up, but the economic consequences of a prolonged war will be even “more serious.” That’s according to the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Odile Renaud-Basso, who commented on the matter for Euronews. She also warned about a “much more serious economic impact” on the European Union, in case the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran drags on or escalates. Her statements came after negotiations over the weekend between U.S. and Iranian officials failed to produce an agreement to end it. Another round of talks may still take place before the two-week ceasefire expires on April 21, according to multiple media reports. If these collapse, too, Renaud-Basso expects “wider and more significant” economic repercussions in the countries where the EBRD operates. Founded in the early 1990’s to back the transition of former Eastern Bloc nations to a market economy, the bank now provides support in over 30 countries on three continents, including Asia and Africa. The observed economic impacts are “directly related” to the surging energy rates, its head also told the European broadcaster. The conflict, which started at the end of February, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for about 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Halted supplies through the waterway and strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran and the region sent fuel prices soaring in the following weeks, prompting states to intervene through subsidies and taxes . $100 per barrel of oil to bump inflation by 1.5% The EBRD estimates that if oil hovers around $100 per barrel, growth will shrink by 0.4% and inflation will rise by 1.5% in the countries where it’s active. Renaud-Basso elaborated: “If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a very long period of time, if there is more destruction of production capacities in the Gulf … then the economic impact is likely to be much more serious.” Speaking for the Europe Today program on Monday, she also highlighted that the challenge for the EU will be even bigger as governments in the bloc are “much more limited” in fiscal terms. That prevents them from taking measures to “counterweigh increases in energy prices” resulting from the Iran crisis, as they did during the COVID pandemic in 2019 or in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The EBRD wants to allocate €5 billion for investments in nations from the region most affected by the conflict, from Egypt to Armenia, and is ready to support all other economies where it’s present. EU to ease state aid rules amid rising energy costs Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, revealed that the EU will propose easing state aid rules by the end of the month. She made the announcement on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat on Sunday to block the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of the negotiations with Iran. Brussels’ move is part of a series of measures meant to help member states deal with the energy crisis sparked by the Gulf war, Politico’s European edition noted in a report. The European Union’s energy bill has increased by €22 billion since the beginning of the war, von der Leyen also remarked in her statement. Filling up gas storage facilities and adopting temporary tax cuts and demand measures are included in a special toolkit to be presented next week. The bloc also intends to upgrade and expand its electricity network as a long-term solution to reduce dependence on expensive fossil fuel imports. The plan also includes amending electricity taxes and grid charges, as well as updating the Union’s Emissions Trading System ( ETS ) as another response to the Iran war. Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

14 Apr 2026, 18:40

Kalshi Market Reveals Crucial 24.8% Probability for a Single Fed Rate Cut This Year

BitcoinWorld Kalshi Market Reveals Crucial 24.8% Probability for a Single Fed Rate Cut This Year Financial markets are closely scrutinizing every signal from the Federal Reserve, and a crucial new data point has emerged from prediction markets. As of this week, traders on the Kalshi market are pricing in a 24.8% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement just one interest rate cut of 25 basis points before the year concludes. This specific figure provides a tangible, crowd-sourced gauge of investor sentiment amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. The data, sourced directly from the live Kalshi exchange, offers a real-time snapshot of expectations that often diverge from traditional analyst surveys. Consequently, this metric serves as a vital pulse check for monetary policy trajectories in 2025. Kalshi Market Data on Federal Reserve Probabilities The Kalshi prediction market aggregates the collective wisdom of its participants, who trade contracts based on specific economic outcomes. The latest pricing reveals a nuanced view of the Federal Reserve’s potential path. According to the market, the odds of the central bank holding the federal funds rate steady for the remainder of the year stand at 40.9%. This represents the most likely single outcome according to traders. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed executing two cuts, totaling 50 basis points, is priced at 17%. These figures collectively paint a picture of a market that sees a higher likelihood of policy stability or limited easing rather than an aggressive cutting cycle. The data is updated continuously, reflecting the immediate impact of new economic reports and Fed communications. Understanding Prediction Market Mechanics Prediction markets like Kalshi function by allowing users to buy and sell shares in specific yes-or-no propositions. For instance, a contract for “The Fed will cut rates once in 2025” trades between $0 and $1. The current price directly translates to the market’s implied probability. Therefore, a contract trading at $0.248 indicates a 24.8% perceived chance of that event occurring. This mechanism often provides a more dynamic and incentive-aligned forecast than standard polls. Historically, such markets have demonstrated notable accuracy in forecasting election outcomes and economic indicators. Their growing adoption by financial professionals underscores their value as a supplementary analytical tool. The Economic Context Driving Fed Policy Expectations The probabilities shown on Kalshi do not exist in a vacuum. They are a direct reflection of the complex economic landscape the Federal Reserve must navigate. Key factors influencing this outlook include persistent inflation metrics, labor market resilience, and global economic pressures. Recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports have shown inflation moderating but remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Simultaneously, unemployment has stayed near historic lows, suggesting economic strength. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have consistently emphasized a data-dependent approach. Their public statements, known as forward guidance, are meticulously parsed by market participants and immediately move prediction market prices. Primary Influences on Rate Expectations: Inflation Data: Monthly CPI and PCE reports are the most significant drivers. Employment Figures: Non-farm payrolls and wage growth indicate economic heat. GDP Growth: Signals of recession or overheating alter the policy calculus. Global Events: Geopolitical tensions and foreign central bank actions create spillover effects. Comparing Market Forecasts with Analyst Projections The Kalshi market’s 24.8% probability for a single cut offers a point of comparison with forecasts from major financial institutions. Many Wall Street banks publish their own Fed policy projections, often summarized in the well-known “dot plot” from the Fed’s own policymakers. Recently, consensus among economists has shifted toward expecting fewer cuts than anticipated at the start of the year. This alignment between prediction markets and traditional analysis reinforces the credibility of the current cautious outlook. However, markets can sometimes react more swiftly to new information than institutional surveys, which may update on a slower, quarterly cycle. The Real-World Impact of Interest Rate Decisions The Federal Reserve’s decisions on the federal funds rate ripple through every corner of the economy. The specific debate between zero, one, or two cuts has concrete implications for businesses and consumers. A single 25-basis-point cut can lower borrowing costs marginally for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. Conversely, it can also reduce the yield on savings accounts and fixed-income investments. For corporations, the cost of capital for expansion and hiring is directly affected. The market’s assignment of a 40.9% chance to no cuts highlights a significant risk scenario where financing conditions remain tight, potentially cooling investment and consumer spending further. This environment demands careful financial planning from all economic actors. Historical Precedents and Policy Shifts Examining past Fed policy cycles provides essential context for the current probabilities. The central bank’s last major cutting cycle began in response to the 2020 pandemic. Prior to that, the 2019 “mid-cycle adjustment” involved three consecutive cuts. The current situation differs markedly, as the Fed is contemplating cuts from a position of high rates instituted to combat inflation, not from a near-zero baseline. Historical analysis shows that prediction markets have occasionally anticipated policy pivots before they are fully acknowledged in official channels. This historical lens helps analysts gauge whether the current market-implied odds are relatively hawkish or dovish compared to similar economic crossroads in the past. Monitoring Tools and Future Data Points For those tracking this evolving situation, several tools and reports are critical. Beyond Kalshi, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool tracks probabilities derived from futures markets, providing another market-based perspective. The Fed’s own meetings, statements, and press conferences are the ultimate deciders. The upcoming releases of employment cost indices, retail sales data, and housing market reports will be pivotal. Each new data point will cause the probabilities on Kalshi to fluctuate, offering a live feed of changing sentiment. Investors and analysts monitor these shifts to adjust their portfolios and strategies in real time, making such prediction markets a frontline indicator in modern finance. Conclusion The Kalshi market’s pricing of a 24.8% chance for one Federal Reserve rate cut this year crystallizes a cautious and highly uncertain monetary policy outlook. This data point, alongside the 40.9% probability of no change, underscores a market bracing for patience from the central bank. Understanding these probabilities requires analyzing underlying economic data, Fed communications, and historical context. As the year progresses, these market-implied odds will serve as a crucial barometer, shifting with each new inflation report and employment figure. For anyone with a stake in the economy—from homeowners to CEOs—these evolving Kalshi market probabilities on Fed rate cuts offer essential insight into the future cost of money. FAQs Q1: What is the Kalshi prediction market? Kalshi is a regulated exchange where users trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events, including economic policy. The trading price of a contract reflects the crowd-sourced probability of that event occurring. Q2: What does a 24.8% probability mean for a Fed rate cut? It means that based on the collective bets of traders, there is currently a 24.8% perceived chance that the Federal Reserve will implement exactly one 0.25% interest rate cut before the end of the calendar year. Q3: How does Kalshi data differ from the Fed’s “dot plot”? The Fed’s dot plot shows the individual interest rate projections of Federal Open Market Committee members. Kalshi data reflects the aggregated, real-time beliefs of a broad market of traders, which can change minute-by-minute with news flow. Q4: What would cause the probability of a rate cut to increase? The probability would likely rise if economic data shows a rapid cooling of inflation, a significant weakening of the labor market, or if Federal Reserve officials make explicitly dovish statements suggesting a greater urgency to ease policy. Q5: Why is the probability of no rate cut (40.9%) higher than the probability of one cut? This pricing suggests traders believe the most likely single scenario is that inflation remains stubborn enough or the economy stays strong enough that the Fed sees no need to reduce interest rates in 2025, prioritizing its inflation fight over stimulating growth. This post Kalshi Market Reveals Crucial 24.8% Probability for a Single Fed Rate Cut This Year first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

14 Apr 2026, 18:36

Bitcoin, Ethereum reclaim February levels — Is bullish momentum returning?

Bitcoin and Ethereum have reclaimed February levels, with rising momentum signaling a potential shift in market structure.

14 Apr 2026, 18:32

Solana quarterly economic activity surpasses $1.1 trillion in Q1 2026

🚀 Solana’s economic activity hit $1.1 trillion in Q1 2026. This is the first quarter Solana ever crossed $1 trillion. Continue Reading: Solana quarterly economic activity surpasses $1.1 trillion in Q1 2026 The post Solana quarterly economic activity surpasses $1.1 trillion in Q1 2026 appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

14 Apr 2026, 18:30

Bitcoin Is Playing Out The Same Cycle Again On A Bigger Scale

Bitcoin’s latest rebound has not done much to settle the argument among crypto analysts over where this cycle really is right now. A technical analysis posted on X claims the market is once again tracing the same structure seen in prior bear phases, only this time with a slower tempo, deeper institutional involvement, and a more controlled trading environment. However, the outlook of this analysis is that the downtrend is still not complete. Familiar Bitcoin Script Is Showing Up Again The concept of the analysis is that the Bitcoin price keeps moving through the same emotional and structural framework from one cycle to the next. In that framework, the Bitcoin price first pushes into a parabolic advance, then enters distribution, suffers a violent break lower, stages a misleading recovery, and eventually grinds into a final capitulation. That is the same pattern that appeared in 2018 and again in 2022, and in this reading, 2026 is now occupying the same late-stage position, only on a larger scale and with lower volatility. That timing element is important, and it supports an extended bearish case in the months to come. History shows prior cycle bottoms formed a year after the all-time high, not immediately after the first large drawdown. By that logic, the Bitcoin price may still be too early in the process for a lasting bottom, especially if this cycle peak is treated as the October 2025 high at $126,080. Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here? The technical structure is only part of the case. Technical analysis from a crypto analyst known as BLADE on the social media platform X leaned on on-chain signals, particularly long-term holder stress and NUPL, to argue that the reset is incomplete. Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures whether the network is sitting on aggregate paper profits or losses. The farther it moves from zero, the closer the market tends to get to major extremes. What this means is that true cycle lows usually arrive when investors are much deeper in pain, and sentiment has turned miserable. CryptoQuant said on April 1 that Bitcoin spot demand is still in deep contraction despite growing institutional buying. This means that the market’s internal strength has not fully caught up with headline demand from large allocators, and the Bitcoin price might continue to struggle until it does. There’s also an interesting template that Bitcoin might follow based on its previous two major bear markets. The 2017 bull run peaked and gave way to a bear market that ultimately caused an approximately 84% drawdown from top to bottom. The 2021 cycle followed a similar script, with Bitcoin’s top-to-bottom decline ending at about 77%. At current prices around $74,680, Bitcoin is trading 40.8% below that October top, which means there could be more downside ahead. Furthermore, previous bear market bottoms arrived about 360 to 370 days after the prior cycle’s peak. This sequence would point to a potential cycle bottom somewhere in Q3 or Q4 2026.

14 Apr 2026, 18:30

Stablecoins Just Out-Processed Visa. Now What?

Stablecoins surpassed Visa and Mastercard in transaction volume, reshaping payments. Discover how regulation, adoption, and infrastructure drive this shift.