10 Jun 2026, 09:15
CPI, FOMC, and the SpaceX IPO: two weeks of consequential data
Plus, the Fed meeting carries an added wrinkle this year: new Chair Kevin Warsh may use it to start dismantling the central bank’s forward guidance. TL;DR CPI for May releases Wednesday, June 10, and PPI for May the next morning, the last inflation reads before the Fed meets. The FOMC decision lands Wednesday, June 17, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair , with the rate widely expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75% . The risk has flipped: fed funds futures now price a rate hike, not a cut, as the more likely year-end move , and Warsh may scrap the dot plot as soon as this meeting. SpaceX (SPCX) is set to debut on Nasdaq Friday, June 12, in what would be the largest IPO in history at a $1.75 trillion valuation. CPI (May 2026): Wednesday, June 10 The Consumer Price Index for May 2026 releases Wednesday, June 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. It covers the month of May and is the last CPI reading the Federal Reserve will see before the FOMC meets on June 16 and 17. April’s CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year, a second consecutive monthly acceleration and the highest annual rate since May 2023. Traders are watching whether May’s print sustains that momentum or shows the first sign of moderation. The reading feeds directly into the FOMC’s deliberations, and the backdrop has shifted sharply this year. Markets came into 2026 expecting rate cuts. After the recent inflation acceleration tied to the energy shock, fed funds futures now lean toward a hike as the more likely year-end move (more on that below). A hotter May print would reinforce that repricing. A softer one would reopen a conversation that has largely closed. Historically, rate-sensitive assets including BTC and ETH have responded to CPI surprises in both directions. Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and associated margin and futures pairs. PPI (May 2026): Thursday, June 11 The Producer Price Index for May 2026 follows the next morning, Thursday, June 11, also at 8:30 a.m. ET. Producer prices measure what businesses receive for their output and are watched as a leading signal for consumer inflation. April’s PPI reading was significant: final demand prices rose 1.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year, the largest 12-month gain since December 2022. Two inflation reads in two days, both landing before the FOMC convenes, give traders an unusually compressed window to calibrate expectations. Traders watching for signs of demand destruction or supply-side relief will assess whether April’s PPI acceleration was an outlier or the start of a trend. If May PPI confirms the April move, the case for the Fed holding rates, or even leaning toward a hike, strengthens. If it reverses, the data picture heading into the FOMC becomes more ambiguous. Historically, PPI and CPI have moved rate-sensitive assets in both directions, depending on how they line up against existing market pricing. Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and USD-denominated futures pairs. FOMC rate decision and projections: Wednesday, June 17 The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, June 17 , with a decision expected at 2:00 p.m. ET and a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. This one is different in two ways. First, it is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair. Warsh was sworn in on May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell, who stepped down as chair but remains on the Board of Governors. The press conference will be Warsh’s first as chair, and traders will parse his tone and communication style as closely as the decision itself. The decision is widely expected to be a hold. The federal funds target range has sat at 3.50%–3.75% since the Fed’s December 2025 cut, the last of three consecutive cuts in late 2025, and it has stayed there through the January, March, and April meetings. What has changed is the direction of risk. Markets came into 2026 expecting further easing. After the inflation acceleration tied to the energy shock, fed funds futures have flipped: as of early June, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of at least one rate hike by year-end above 50%, with a quarter-point hike by December near 43% and 2026 cuts all but priced out. Second, and unusually, the meeting’s centerpiece may be disappearing. June is a Summary of Economic Projections meeting, which normally means an updated dot plot, the chart of where each official expects rates to go. But Warsh has long criticized forward guidance, and reporting that originated with the Financial Times indicates he may begin rolling it back as soon as this meeting, potentially dropping the dot plot’s rate forecast and stripping the easing or tightening bias language from the statement. Whether the dot plot appears at all, and in what form, is now one of the biggest questions heading into June 17. So traders are watching several things at once: whether the dot plot survives and, if it does, whether its lone remaining 2026 cut is erased; whether the inflation projections are revised upward in light of recent CPI and PPI data; and how Warsh frames the path ahead in his first press conference. The week’s data sequence, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, lands directly in the committee’s deliberation window. Retail sales for May also release on decision-day morning, June 17, at 8:30 a.m. ET, so traders will be reading the Fed’s statement with fresh spending data in hand. Historically, FOMC decisions have produced significant moves across crypto and risk assets, with volatility elevated in the hours around the announcement and press conference. Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD , ETH/USD , XRP/USD , SOL/USD , across spot, margin , and futures . SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq IPO: Friday, June 12 SpaceX is targeting its Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX on Friday, June 12, with shares priced after market close on Thursday, June 11. SpaceX filed Amendment No. 1 to its Form S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, following its initial public S-1 on May 20 . Reuters has reported a proposed price of $135 per share, with the company seeking to raise roughly $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest IPO by amount raised in history. The previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, raised $25.6 billion in its December 2019 listing and $29.4 billion once its over-allotment was exercised in early 2020. Pricing and final terms aren’t confirmed until the effective prospectus. Traders are watching this event for two distinct reasons. First, the sheer scale of capital deployment: a $75 billion raise represents a significant liquidity event. Second, Nasdaq fast-entry rules can make a very large newly public company eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion after 15 trading days, which would create index-driven passive demand independent of the company’s fundamentals. The listing coincides with the weekly Deribit BTC and ETH options expiry, also scheduled for Friday, June 12 at 08:00 UTC. Crypto traders monitoring risk sentiment will be watching how equity markets open around the SPCX debut. Deribit BTC and ETH options expiries: Fridays, June 12 and June 19 Weekly BTC and ETH options on Deribit settle every Friday at 08:00 UTC. Two expiries fall in the next two weeks: Friday, June 12 and Friday, June 19. The June 12 expiry arrives in a uniquely dense data environment: the morning after PPI prints and on the day of SpaceX’s anticipated Nasdaq debut. Spot prices in BTC and ETH can converge toward max-pain levels in the hours before the 08:00 UTC settlement. The June 19 expiry lands two days after the FOMC decision and Warsh’s press conference. Post-FOMC repricing, if significant, will be the dominant backdrop for positioning into that second settlement. Traders active in the crypto derivatives market should note that June 19 is Juneteenth, a US federal holiday: US equity markets are closed, but Deribit’s schedule is unaffected. Also on the calendar Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G.17) releases Monday, June 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET, the day before the FOMC convenes. It is a secondary data point, but traders watching for signs of manufacturing slack or tightness, as context for the Fed’s economic assessment, may find it relevant. The setup These two weeks have a clear structure. CPI and PPI on consecutive days set the inflation context. The FOMC then meets with that data in hand, and this time the meeting may reshape how the Fed communicates its outlook, not just where it sets rates. Running alongside is a high-profile equity event in the SpaceX IPO, which brings its own risk-sentiment read, plus two Deribit expiry windows that bracket the week’s most significant decisions. Traders who think through each of these events, and how one feeds the next, will be better positioned to read what markets are doing in the days that follow, rather than reacting to noise. Explore markets on Kraken Pro This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk. The post CPI, FOMC, and the SpaceX IPO: two weeks of consequential data appeared first on Kraken Blog .
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