hodler

25 Mar 2026, 18:16

Wall Street Moves Onchain as Franklin Templeton and Ondo Finance Accelerate Tokenized Access to ETFs

Tokenized ETFs enter blockchain markets as Ondo Finance and Franklin Templeton expand access to traditional assets, opening new global distribution channels while preserving institutional investment structures and reshaping how investors interact with established financial products. Ondo Finance and Franklin Templeton Bring ETFs Onchain Expanding access to traditional financial instruments through blockchain infrastructure is gaining traction,

25 Mar 2026, 18:15

USD/CAD Analysis: Scotiabank Warns of Critical Overshoot Risk Near 1.38 Zone

BitcoinWorld USD/CAD Analysis: Scotiabank Warns of Critical Overshoot Risk Near 1.38 Zone TORONTO, March 2025 – Foreign exchange markets face a pivotal technical test as the USD/CAD pair approaches a critical resistance zone. Analysts at Scotiabank have issued a detailed warning, highlighting a significant overshoot risk for the currency pair near the 1.38 level. This analysis, based on comprehensive chart patterns and macroeconomic drivers, suggests potential volatility ahead for traders and businesses exposed to the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD Technical Setup and the 1.38 Zone Scotiabank’s foreign exchange strategy team has identified the 1.38 area as a major technical confluence zone. This level represents not just a simple price point but a region where multiple historical pivots and Fibonacci extensions converge. Consequently, the bank’s charts indicate that a clean break above this barrier could trigger a substantial momentum move. Market participants often watch such levels for clues about future trend direction. Furthermore, the current price action shows the pair testing this zone after a sustained period of US dollar strength. Several key moving averages are also aligning near this price, adding to its technical significance. A decisive close above 1.38, therefore, would confirm a breakout and likely invite further buying pressure. This scenario forms the core of Scotiabank’s overshoot warning. Economic Drivers Behind the Currency Pressure The technical warning exists within a broader macroeconomic context. Primarily, divergent monetary policy paths between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continue to influence the pair. The US central bank has maintained a relatively hawkish stance to combat persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada has signaled a more cautious approach due to domestic economic sensitivities. Additionally, commodity price fluctuations play a crucial role for the Canadian dollar, often called a ‘commodity currency’. Recent volatility in crude oil prices, a major Canadian export, has contributed to CAD weakness. Geopolitical tensions and shifts in global energy demand further complicate this picture. Trade flow data also shows a widening gap, putting additional pressure on the loonie. Scotiabank’s Analytical Framework and Historical Precedents Scotiabank employs a multi-timeframe analytical framework to assess such risks. Their analysis typically combines daily, weekly, and monthly charts to gauge the strength of a level. Historical data reveals that the 1.38 zone has acted as both support and resistance over the past decade. For instance, a similar test in late 2022 resulted in a sharp rejection and a multi-month decline in the USD/CAD rate. The term ‘overshoot’ refers to a scenario where price momentum carries an asset beyond a logical technical or fundamental equilibrium point. In forex markets, overshoots frequently occur during periods of high volatility or low liquidity. Central bank interventions or unexpected economic data can exacerbate these moves. Scotiabank’s warning suggests current conditions are ripe for such a dynamic. Potential Market Impacts and Trader Implications A confirmed overshoot above 1.38 would have immediate consequences. First, it could accelerate the unwind of speculative short USD positions. Second, it would likely force corporate treasurers to reassess their hedging strategies for cross-border transactions. Importers in Canada would face higher costs, while exporters could see a competitive boost, albeit with complex timing. For active traders, key levels to watch include the immediate resistance at 1.3820 and the more significant 1.3950 area. Support on any pullback would be found near 1.3650 and then 1.3550. Risk management becomes paramount in such an environment, as false breakouts are common around major technical levels. Volume analysis and order flow data provide critical confirmation signals. Comparative Analysis with Other Bank Forecasts Scotiabank’s view sits within a spectrum of institutional forecasts. Other major banks have published year-end targets for USD/CAD, with a notable range of opinions. The following table summarizes recent institutional projections: Institution Q2 2025 Forecast Primary Rationale Scotiabank Risk of overshoot above 1.38 Technical confluence & momentum TD Securities Range-bound near 1.36 Balanced policy divergence RBC Capital Markets Moderate strength to 1.37 Commodity price support for CAD CIBC World Markets Potential test of 1.35 Expected narrowing of yield spreads This divergence highlights the uncertainty in current market pricing. It also underscores the importance of monitoring real-time data releases, including inflation prints, employment reports, and central bank communications. Conclusion Scotiabank’s analysis of the USD/CAD pair presents a clear warning for market participants. The identified overshoot risk near the 1.38 zone is grounded in both technical chart patterns and observable macroeconomic trends. While the ultimate direction will depend on incoming data and policy signals, the potential for heightened volatility is significant. Traders and businesses with exposure to the Canadian dollar should monitor this technical level closely, as a decisive break could set the tone for the currency pair’s trajectory through mid-2025. FAQs Q1: What does ‘overshoot risk’ mean in forex trading? In forex, an overshoot risk refers to the potential for a currency pair’s price to move rapidly beyond a key technical level or fair value estimate due to momentum, often before retracing. It is a common phenomenon during breakouts or breakdowns. Q2: Why is the 1.38 level specifically important for USD/CAD? The 1.38 level represents a major technical confluence zone for USD/CAD, combining historical pivot points, Fibonacci retracement levels, and moving averages. It has repeatedly acted as significant support and resistance over the past several years. Q3: How does Bank of Canada policy affect the USD/CAD exchange rate? The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance directly influence the Canadian dollar’s yield attractiveness. A more dovish stance relative to the US Federal Reserve typically weakens the CAD, putting upward pressure on the USD/CAD rate. Q4: What economic data should I watch that impacts this forecast? Key data includes Canadian and US inflation (CPI), employment reports, retail sales, and GDP growth. Additionally, crude oil price movements and central bank meeting minutes are critical drivers for the USD/CAD pair. Q5: What is the typical time horizon for a technical overshoot scenario? Technical overshoots can unfold over days or weeks, depending on market volatility and catalyst strength. Scotiabank’s analysis typically focuses on a multi-week horizon, but the initial reaction to breaching a key level often occurs within a few trading sessions. This post USD/CAD Analysis: Scotiabank Warns of Critical Overshoot Risk Near 1.38 Zone first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

25 Mar 2026, 18:05

Ex-Ripple CTO Reveals Why XRP Fees Can Suddenly Spike Without Warning

Blockchain networks reveal their true design under pressure. During periods of elevated activity, systems that normally appear stable begin to expose how they manage throughput, prioritize transactions, and maintain consensus. The XRP Ledger operates with a dynamic architecture that adjusts in real time to balance demand and network capacity, and recent activity has brought those mechanisms into sharper focus. This discussion gained attention after former Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz responded to observations from XRPL validator Vet regarding rising transaction counts and fee behavior. Their exchange highlighted how network congestion, validator coordination, and throughput limits interact to influence transaction costs on the XRP Ledger. Rising Activity Near Historical Throughput Levels XRPL has recently approached activity levels near 200 transactions per ledger , a threshold rarely sustained in its operational history. Vet noted this increase while observing network conditions that reflected heavier-than-usual usage across applications and users. As transaction volume rises, the network experiences higher load across nodes. This increased demand can lead to longer processing times and elevated fees, particularly when more users attempt to submit transactions simultaneously. These conditions often trigger discussions about scalability and efficiency within the ecosystem. Dynamic Fee Adjustment Under Demand Pressure David Schwartz explained that XRP Ledger fees respond directly to network demand. When transaction requests exceed the network’s ability to process them comfortably, the system increases fees to regulate throughput. Schwartz clarified that even a small excess in demand above the network’s capacity can trigger noticeable fee escalation. If the network can process approximately 200 transactions per second, fees adjust to a level where only that number of transactions—or fewer—remain willing to pay. This mechanism ensures that the network maintains operational stability without exceeding its processing limits. In theory, if demand continues to rise without a sufficient supply of transaction capacity, fees can increase significantly until equilibrium is reached between demand and throughput. Validator Consensus and Clearing Rates Schwartz also emphasized that validators collectively determine the network’s clearing rate. The XRP Ledger does not rely on a central authority to set transaction speed. Instead, validators coordinate through consensus to agree on how many transactions the network can process at any given time. He explained that the network requires at least a majority of validators to reach agreement, with some configurations requiring up to roughly 80% consensus, depending on the negative Unique Node List (UNL) setup. This consensus model ensures that no single validator can unilaterally influence network performance. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 The system also avoids extremes. It does not operate at the pace of the fastest validator nor slow down to match the slowest. Instead, it balances performance across the validator set to maintain consistency and reliability. Infrastructure Limits and Network Stability Schwartz noted that validator infrastructure plays a critical role in overall network performance. If a server operates near its maximum capacity under normal conditions, a sudden increase in transaction volume can cause it to fall behind. When consensus rounds extend—sometimes reaching durations around 12 seconds—validators may adjust their transaction targets and modify the fee curve. These adjustments help stabilize the network and prevent overload during periods of high demand. Balancing Throughput, Fees, and Reliability The XRP Ledger’s fee mechanism reflects a careful balance between scalability and stability. If fees escalate too early, the network may unnecessarily restrict throughput. If they activate too late, the system risks congestion and degraded performance across nodes. Schwartz’s explanation highlights how the XRP Ledger continuously adapts to changing conditions. Through validator consensus, dynamic fee adjustments, and infrastructure constraints, the network maintains equilibrium even as demand fluctuates. As activity on XRPL continues to evolve, understanding these mechanisms provides important context for interpreting fee spikes and network behavior. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Ex-Ripple CTO Reveals Why XRP Fees Can Suddenly Spike Without Warning appeared first on Times Tabloid .

25 Mar 2026, 18:02

Circle Falls As Stablecoin Future Questioned

Summary Circle Internet Group, Inc. shares plunged over 20% after legislative uncertainty around the Clarity Act threatened stablecoin yield models. CRCL’s revenue is highly dependent on interest from USDC reserves, with Q1 interest revenue projected near $656 million if USDC averages $75 billion in circulation. Recent USDC circulation rebounded toward its peak, but Street Q1 revenue estimates of $719 million may still be too optimistic. Tuesday was a very bad day for shareholders of Circle Internet Group, Inc. ( CRCL ). The company behind the USDC stablecoin saw its shares drop more than 20%, the worst trading day percentage wise since the company went public. The culprit seemingly was some potentially bad news on legislation regarding the Clarity Act, which could limit the future potential of the stablecoin space. Previous coverage of the name My most recent article on Circle came back in January, at which point I detailed a couple of major headwinds the company was facing. With U.S. interest rates dropping and USDC in circulation pulling back, it appeared that Circle's Q1 street revenue estimates were too high. Shares have rallied back more than 36% since, despite the S&P 500 (SP500) being down more than 5% over that time. However, Circle still remains well below its all-time high of just under $299 that was reached shortly after going public. Recent legislative news When President Trump was re-elected in 2024, the entire crypto industry celebrated as they believed he would be a major supporter of the space. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a new all-time high, stablecoins like USDC saw tremendous growth in circulation, and it seemed like nothing was impossible. Last year, a crypto winter started with prices falling, and the future of the industry suddenly didn't look as bright. Earlier this week, some proposed new legislation regarding stablecoins seemingly put things into question for companies like Circle. The latest draft of the Clarity Act would ban stablecoin issuers from paying yield to customers just for holding the assets. Earning yields on balances, otherwise known as rewards, is an incentive for holding the coins, basically like getting interest on your deposits at a bank. The latest part of the bill would potentially still allow for yields to be generated by using the stablecoin for payments, trading, or lending it out. In recent years, major banks have been opponents of stablecoin yields, as they are seen as a potential competitor. At a minimum, the latest news out of D.C. at least provides more uncertainty for the future of stablecoins, and it is not clear when and if final legislation will make it up for a vote. An update on USDC growth As a reminder, Circle generates a majority of its revenue from interest on the reserves that back the USDC stablecoin. 2025 was a huge year for USDC in circulation growth, surging by more than $31 billion. While U.S. interest rates declined, Circle was still able to report record revenue in Q4 that handily beat street estimates, rising 77% over the prior year period. After topping out in mid-Q4 at around $78.5 billion, USDC in circulation took a hit as crypto prices fell. The number fell to around $70 billion earlier this year, but it has risen back towards new highs during March. Circle in most of its recent quarters had generated interest on its reserves that comes in almost 20 basis points below SOFR , which means in Q1 should be a net return of about 3.50% on an annualized basis. While there is still some time left in the quarter, let's assume that USDC in circulation averaged about $75 billion for the quarter. That would mean about $656 million in interest revenue for Circle, and other revenues in the period could be around $40 million as management has guided to full year other revenues of $150 million to $170 million for the year. In the chart below, you can see how Street estimates for Q1 have trended over time. Circle Q1 2026 Revenue Estimate (Seeking Alpha) Currently at $719 million, I still think the Street is a little too high for Q1 at the moment. There's still plenty of time for numbers to change, however, as we don't yet know how much USDC in circulation there will be at the end of the quarter. Perhaps the good news for Circle on the interest rate front is that expectations no longer call for multiple rate cuts from the Fed this year, which would eat further into the return rate that the company generates. The current valuation picture Circle trades at more than 91 times its expected adjusted earnings per share as of midday Wednesday. That's still well above the more than 48 times that Coinbase Global, Inc. ( COIN ) goes for. Both firms are expected to see their adjusted earnings decline this year, and a lot more so for Circle. However, Circle is expected to show more than 13% revenue growth this year, while Coinbase is projected for just 1.25%. On a price-to-sales basis, Circle has again flipped to being more expensive, going for 8.10 times this year's projected revenue, with Coinbase around 6.65 times. When it comes to Street analysts, the picture is very bullish currently . Of the 23 analysts covering the stock, 9 have Strong Buy ratings, with 2 more having Buy ratings. There are 11 analysts with Hold ratings and 1 with a Strong Sell. The average price target is nearly $128, implying more than 22% upside from current levels. I should note, however, that the Street average has come down by $12 since my previous article, and it was $235 in the stock's early trading days, so analysts have reduced their valuations a bit over time. Final thoughts and recommendation Circle had its worst public trading day yet on Tuesday, as shares fell more than 20% due to potential legislative headwinds. There now seems to be an effort in Congress to limit stablecoin yields, potentially putting a major roadblock in front of the future of this emerging business. With the big banks trying to fight off this evolving financial technology, it remains to be seen what the final legislation will end up being. Until we get a better idea of how this will all turn out, I am going to remain neutral on Circle shares. The latest news could turn out to be a major negative, but nothing is finalized just yet. On the flip side, USDC in circulation has rebounded from the early 2026 lows, and a lack of Fed rate cuts is good for the company's interest generation on reserves. I do think Q1 estimates still remain a little high, but at the moment the potential legislative roadblock could turn out to be a much larger issue than a single quarter's results.

25 Mar 2026, 18:00

Hyperliquid: How spot buyers saved HYPE from $22.9mln whale crash

HYPE absorbs whale sell-off as spot demand stays firm.

25 Mar 2026, 18:00

Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin $125,000 Top Reveals What To Expect Next

A crypto analyst who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s (BTC) cycle peak around $125,000 has released a new report detailing fresh projections for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. In the update, the analyst maintains a largely bearish outlook, pointing to weakening technical structure amid the ongoing bear market. He also outlines what investors and traders should expect in the coming weeks or months, while sharing his strategy for navigating continued downside pressure. Bitcoin And The Broader Market Bear Trend In an X post published at the start of the week, market expert Doctor Profit shared a Sunday report, explaining Bitcoin’s recent movements and outlining what the market should expect as bearish conditions persist. He noted that since September 2025, he has consistently shared his outlook on Bitcoin and how its price movements could unfold over the coming months. After successfully projecting Bitcoin’s $125,000 top in 2025, Doctor Profit revealed that he also anticipated the cryptocurrency’s decline to $100,000, which occurred a few weeks after his forecast. In addition, he predicted BTC’s price crash to $60,000, a move that also played out within weeks of his call. Related Reading: Bitcoin PMI Cycle Is The Only Signal That Matters, Analyst Explains Why The analyst disclosed that he had also forecasted that Bitcoin would trade inside a sideways range between $57,000 and $87,000. True to his prediction, Bitcoin rallied to $76,000 last week before retreating sharply to $68,000 just a few days later. According to Doctor Profit, this movement represents one of many bullish traps he has repeatedly warned about, signaling a continued bear market trend. Due to the risk of further downside pressure, Doctor Profit has shared his strategy moving forward. He revealed that he recently sold the BTC he purchased two weeks ago at around $68,000 and is currently holding a larger short position between $115,000 and $125,000. He also noted that he may add more shorts in the $79,000 to $84,000 region with a 5x leverage. Beyond Bitcoin, the analyst noted that the entire financial market is in a “bear market scenario.” The analyst had highlighted major liquidity stress in the repo market as far back as September 2025, alongside rising risks tied to the FED’s standing repo facility. He further claimed that there is ongoing manipulation in the silver and gold markets, where futures prices have increasingly diverged from physical supply, which continues to decline. In addition, Doctor Profit pointed out that, amid rising oil prices, AI-and data-related stocks appear heavily overbought. As a result, he has taken short positions across these sectors, as well as in Bitcoin, stocks, and indices in certain regions. He added that all of his shorts are presently in profit. Still maintaining a negative outlook, Doctor Profit expects the current bear market to dominate most financial assets, with only a few staying strong. In his view, Bitcoin remains in a weak technical position and lacks clear directional strength, which helps explain its ongoing sideways price action. Looking ahead, the analyst predicts that the next major move is likely another price correction. He explained that markets may attempt to push prices higher to capture liquidity above key levels before driving them much lower. At the same time, he added that they are also proceeding cautiously due to ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties that could pose significant risks. What’s Next For The BTC Price In his report, Doctor Profit stated that he no longer holds any spot positions in Bitcoin, arguing that the next major downside move is only a matter of time. The analyst warned that the market could still experience fake outs before another decline. Overall, he maintains a strongly bearish outlook and expects Bitcoin to fall toward the third target highlighted on his chart between $50,000 and $40,000. Related Reading: Breaking Down The $100 XRP Prophecy: Is There A Timeline? Doctor Profit also emphasized that last week’s FOMC meeting provided clearer insights into where the market is likely headed next. According to him, the next interest rate cut is now expected in December 2026, much later than the market had previously anticipated. With no rate cuts currently in place, the analyst believes market fear could spread as inflationary pressures remain elevated. Given these bearish headwinds, Doctor Profit has issued an official call for the coming weeks or months, projecting another major Bitcoin price crash similar to the one he made after the 2025 cycle top. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com