Invest ideasNews
23 Apr 2026, 12:13
Coinbase: Bitcoin's Rising Tide Masks A Retail Moat In Structural Decline
Summary Coinbase has underperformed both IBIT (+59.6%) and the S&P 500 (+51.9%) since January 2024, delivering crypto volatility without the full crypto upside. Retail transaction revenue, its profit engine, faces structural erosion from Hyperliquid's DEX volumes, Binance's dominance, and secular fee compression. The two key subscription growth drivers, USDC and ETH staking, are constrained by USDT's 70% market dominance and declining staking yields of ~2.9%, respectively. At 38x FY2027E P/E versus IBKR's 27.7x and HOOD's 32x, COIN is a hold—tactically supported by rebounding crypto but lacking a re-rating catalyst. Coinbase ( COIN ) has historically been one of the few regulated and publicly listed vehicles through which institutional investors could gain exposure to the crypto space, apart from investing in Bitcoin ( BTC ) itself. Today, there are many other solid ways to get crypto exposure (even in size), so the appeal via scarcity has diminished. By investing in COIN, not only are we looking to gain exposure to crypto but also through a financial infrastructure intermediary company, which may often be an inefficient method to capture alpha in the underlying sector. Below, we can observe that the stock trades with a high correlation to crypto prices—Bitcoin in particular. However, since the inception of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) in January 2024, COIN has in fact underperformed holding BTC via the ETF. Data by YCharts The business model Coinbase operates through two main segments—transaction revenue, and subscription and services revenue. 1. Transaction revenue accounted for $4.1B or ~56%, of total revenue in FY2025. Within this segment, Consumer contributed the vast majority (~82%), while Institutional and other transaction revenue were ~12% and ~6% of segment revenue, respectively. 2. Subscription and services revenue accounted for $2.8B or ~39%, of total revenue in FY2025. Stablecoin revenue made up the bulk of this segment at ~48%, followed by blockchain rewards at ~24%, and the rest, which included interest and finance fee income and other subscription and services revenue, added up to ~28% of segment revenue. Overall, FY 2025 total revenue reached $7.2B, growing 9% Y/Y, while adjusted EPS jumped 24.6% Y/Y to $2.19. Company A two-year lesson in capital misallocation Suppose an investor was seeking crypto exposure and was making an allocation choice in January 2024 when the iShares Bitcoin Trust was launched. Investing in IBIT would have yielded a total return of 59.6% (or 22.83% average annual return), while COIN would only have returned 38.8% (or 15.51% average annual return), losing out to SPY's 51.9% total return. This is a meaningful underperformance as investing in COIN would neither have fully captured equity growth nor the crypto beta cleanly. Instead, the investor would have been exposed to the jarring volatility associated with crypto assets while being in a margin compressed and regulated financial intermediary. The stock jumped on the inclusion into the S&P 500 in May 2025, but it proved to be fleeting as it now trades back to similar levels. Tethered to the cyclicality of crypto volumes As depicted in the chart below, crypto trading volume tends to follow closely with prices—peak volume in October 2025 coincided with peak prices in Bitcoin in the same month. Volume has since faltered, while Bitcoin has corrected nearly 40% from $126K. Coinbase relies mainly on consumer/retail transactions for fee generation, which carry significantly higher fee rates (up to 60bps). We believe fee compression is a general trend in most financial markets, and because competitors overall already have much lower blended fee rates, we see little reason for Coinbase to not lower their charges to match peers in the future. According to data from The Block, Binance still facilitates the lion's share of crypto trading volume, with ~30% of total volume in March being traded there. Bybit is second with ~7% share, while Coinbase is third at ~6% share. Coinbase's monthly market share has been mostly stable around ~5%–~6%, while other smaller platforms in aggregate have eroded Binance's market share from high 30s to 30. The Block The Block The rise in popularity of DEX A notable example would be the arrival of Hyperliquid since launching in 2023. By 2025, it had already surpassed Coinbase in notional trading volume for perpetual contracts. In 2025, it recorded $2.6T in notional trading volume, vastly superior to Coinbase's $1.4T. Total perpetuals volume reached $7.9T in 2025. According to The Block, Hyperliquid handles >6% of total exchange as of April and is on a rising trend. Year-to-date, Hyperliquid has driven $0.77T in cumulative perpetual volume, or $2.56T if annualized. The strategic response from Coinbase was its acquisition of a large centralized options trading platform, Deribit, in August 2025. Deribit processed over 80% of total Bitcoin options volume in October 2025, while the average volume share is around 70%. Deribit competes in the options segment, which is predominantly used by more sophisticated institutional clients as opposed to retail traders who prefer directional, leveraged trading in perpetuals. So, this acquisition is unlikely to resolve the disruption brought by DEX. The Block The Block Stablecoin growth still lacks clarity Coinbase's stablecoin revenue mainly rests on the USDC adoption. While being the largest regulated USD-denominated stablecoin in circulation, USDC has yet to make enough headway to dethrone its much larger brethren, USDT. According to DefiLlama , USDT in circulation is $188.5B (~70% market share) versus USDC's $77.9B (~29% market share), as of April 22. Despite the regulatory tailwind, USDT still has its first-mover and liquidity advantage, particularly driven by demand across Asia and Africa. The recently advanced Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has yet to provide enough clarity on stablecoin law, especially when it comes to yield. As of now, issuers like Circle are prohibited from paying USDC holders any interest. But, providing incentives linked to digital asset activity appears to be the workaround for now. There is still ongoing debate as to whether such rewards should be classified as interest. But for Coinbase, there is meaningful revenue implication. Stablecoin revenue rose 48% Y/Y in FY2025 and relies on USDC adoption to be successful. Without offering interest or incentives for holding or using USDC, adoption could falter and directly impact the company's revenues. Blockchain rewards facing compression Participation in the blockchain often rewards staking yield, which has helped contribute $677M in revenue for Coinbase in FY2025, down 4% Y/Y. Most of the staking yield should come from Ethereum, which has generally offered low to mid single-digit yields post-Merge. Currently, ETH staking yield sits at ~2.9%, according to Staking Rewards . Similarly, the BlackRock ETHB staking ETF offers a 2.8% yield, as of February 18. The yield can fluctuate depending on network activity and, most importantly, the staking participation rate. Liquid restaking introduces enhancements to plain-vanilla ETH staking by offering layered yield strategies. These strategies can carry additional risk but can offer varying degrees of incremental yield. Sophisticated users may opt to move away from Coinbase's staking platform to self-directed LRT protocols in search of higher yield. However, we have observed that yield spreads on LRTs have materially declined to ~1%. Declining operating leverage Total revenue in 4Q25 fell 22.2% Y/Y, while transaction revenue dropped 36.8% Y/Y to $982.7M. But operating expenses rose 41% Y/Y to $1.3B as headcount grew 3% Y/Y on top of surging SG&A and R&D expenses. The market predicts capex to reach $144M in FY2026E and rise to $159M in FY2027E, from virtually zero in FY2024 as a result of the Deribit acquisition and infrastructure investment. This should weigh on FCF in the coming years. Valuation and verdict If we look towards the outer years in FY2027E/FY2028E, both revenue and EPS noticeably improve. The market is discounting FY2026E with modest declines in revenue and a larger drop in EPS due to reverse operating leverage. The year has started lackluster in 2026, correcting from a peak in October 2025. But crypto assets have meaningfully rebounded from March lows, helped by fresh highs in U.S. equities and optimism from a potential resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. That said, the stock trades at an FY2027E P/E of 38x and an FY2027E EV/EBITDA of 13.9x. Compared with its broker peers, IBKR trades at 27.7x FY2027E P/E, while HOOD trades at 32x FY2027E P/E. Coinbase is more richly valued, but this is a premium that is increasingly difficult to justify. While COIN has built a strong moat around regulated crypto dealing, its retail business, from which it makes most of its profit, has come under intense competition. On the other hand, we believe its institutional franchise is a bright spot where the company serves as a crypto asset custodian for many institutional products. On balance, we think COIN is a Hold until valuations or fundamentals improve. In the near term, it is likely to benefit from rebounding crypto assets. Metric FY 2024A FY 2025A FY 2026E FY 2027E FY 2028E Revenue (Adj.) $6,564M $7,181M $6,976M $8,394M $8,740M Revenue YoY % +111.2% +9.4% -2.9% +20.3% +4.1% EBITDA (Adj.) $3,348M $2,808M $2,463M $3,466M $3,687M EBITDA Margin 51.0% 39.1% 35.3% 41.3% 42.2% EPS (Adj.) $9.48 $4.45 $3.18 $5.14 $6.05 EPS (GAAP) $9.48 $4.45 $2.92 $5.37 $6.40 Source: Company, market estimates, Himalayas Research estimates
23 Apr 2026, 12:13
Apple Signal Patch: Pavel Durov and TON Privacy
Apple released a patch blocking FBI access to deleted Signal messages on iPhones. Pavel Durov's call proved effective. As privacy emphasis grows for TON, price $1.33 (-2.92%), strong support S1 $1....
23 Apr 2026, 12:05
Market Veteran: Ripple Could Move XRP Price By $0.5 If It Takes This Action
Ripple’s relationship with XRP has always sparked strong opinions across the crypto market. While critics often point to the company’s large XRP reserves as a sign of centralization risk, many long-term investors see the same factor as one of XRP’s strongest advantages. They believe Ripple’s deep financial exposure creates a powerful incentive to support the asset’s long-term growth. That argument gained fresh attention after market commentator Patrick L Riley shared his perspective on X. He argued that Ripple’s massive XRP holdings should not worry investors. Instead, he described them as a bullish signal, suggesting that Ripple could significantly influence XRP’s price if it chose to deploy part of its financial strength into the open market. How a $1 Billion Buy Could Shift XRP Price Patrick L Riley highlighted Ripple’s estimated balance sheet, noting that the company still controls nearly 39 billion XRP through treasury reserves and escrow holdings. Ripple’s escrow structure has remained a central part of its XRP strategy for years, with monthly releases and unused portions often returned to locked reserves. So let me get this straight, @Ripple is still holding ~39 Billion $XRP and has about $5 billion cash on hand. If Ripple were to place a market buy of the bottom $1 billion in liquidity, it would move the price roughly ~0.50. which means that their xrp holdings of now close to ~40… https://t.co/QuJ3IbWhrw — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) April 22, 2026 According to Riley, if Ripple placed a market buy targeting roughly $1 billion in XRP liquidity, the move could push the asset’s price up by around $0.50. While the estimate reflects a theoretical scenario rather than a confirmed plan, his argument focuses on how limited liquidity at key price levels can create outsized price reactions. Such a move would not only lift XRP’s market price but also increase the value of Ripple’s existing holdings. With close to 40 billion XRP under its control, even a modest price increase could add tens of billions of dollars to the company’s balance sheet on paper. Why Higher XRP Value Could Strengthen Ripple Riley believes that this dynamic creates a strategic advantage. If Ripple’s XRP treasury rises sharply in value, the company could potentially borrow against that stronger balance sheet rather than relying on direct token sales. This approach could help Ripple fund expansion, partnerships, and infrastructure development while preserving long-term asset value. He linked this thinking to broader ecosystem-building strategies, including infrastructure projects like Evernode, where XRP-backed financial strength could support growth. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 Supporters often compare this model to the strategy used by Michael Saylor and Strategy with Bitcoin . As Bitcoin’s value rose, Strategy used that strength to reinforce its financial position. Riley argues that Ripple could apply similar logic to XRP. Why Many Investors See This as Bullish For many XRP holders, Ripple’s large stake represents alignment rather than risk. They believe the company benefits most when XRP succeeds as a bridge asset for payments, institutional liquidity, and tokenized asset settlement. Currently, investor focus has shifted from courtroom headlines to adoption and utility. That change has strengthened bullish sentiment across the XRP market. Ripple has not announced any plan to make such a large market buy. However, Patrick L Riley’s argument continues to resonate because it highlights a key point: Ripple’s influence over XRP may not be a weakness at all. For many investors, it may be one of the strongest reasons for long-term confidence. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Market Veteran: Ripple Could Move XRP Price By $0.5 If It Takes This Action appeared first on Times Tabloid .
23 Apr 2026, 12:03
Morning Minute: Bitcoin Clears $79,000, Then Reverses
Justin Sun is suing Trump’s World Liberty Financial, and the U.S. government is now openly running a Bitcoin node.
23 Apr 2026, 12:00
Bitcoin funding hits 2023 lows – Why $80K is BTC’s next big test
Bitcoin approached the cost basis of short-term whales, which could trigger a wave of selling.
23 Apr 2026, 12:00
Silver Price Today: Silver Falls Sharply as Market Sentiment Shifts – Bitcoin World Data Reveals Key Trends
BitcoinWorld Silver Price Today: Silver Falls Sharply as Market Sentiment Shifts – Bitcoin World Data Reveals Key Trends Silver price today experiences a notable decline, according to the latest data from Bitcoin World. This drop captures the attention of investors and market analysts worldwide. The precious metal, often seen as a safe-haven asset, faces downward pressure from multiple economic factors. Understanding the reasons behind this movement helps traders make informed decisions. Silver Price Today: Key Data from Bitcoin World Bitcoin World data reveals a clear downward trend for silver price today. The metal trades lower against the US dollar, breaking through key support levels. This movement follows a period of relative stability. Market participants now watch for further signals. The data shows a decline of approximately 1.5% in the last 24 hours. This represents a significant shift in short-term momentum. Several factors contribute to this decline. A stronger US dollar index pressures all dollar-denominated commodities. Rising bond yields also reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Additionally, industrial demand concerns weigh on the metal. Silver serves critical roles in electronics and solar panel manufacturing. Any slowdown in these sectors directly impacts its price. Comparing Silver to Other Precious Metals Gold also trades lower today, but silver experiences a sharper percentage decline. This pattern often occurs due to silver’s higher volatility. The gold-to-silver ratio widens, indicating relative weakness in silver. Platinum and palladium show mixed performance. This divergence highlights silver’s unique market position. It balances between monetary and industrial demand drivers. Metal Daily Change Key Driver Silver -1.5% Strong USD, falling industrial demand Gold -0.6% Rising bond yields Platinum +0.3% Supply constraints Palladium -0.2% Auto sector slowdown Why Silver Falls: Analyzing the Drivers The silver price today decline connects directly to macroeconomic shifts. The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance on interest rates. Higher rates strengthen the dollar and increase opportunity costs for holding silver. This dynamic creates a headwind for the metal. Furthermore, China’s economic recovery slows. As the world’s largest industrial producer, China’s demand for silver in manufacturing decreases. Investor sentiment also plays a crucial role. Speculative positions in silver futures show a reduction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data indicates declining net long positions. This suggests traders expect further downside. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by physical silver also see outflows. These flows represent real money moving away from the asset. Technical Analysis of Silver Price Today Technical indicators confirm the bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40, approaching oversold territory. The 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross. This pattern historically signals sustained downward momentum. Support levels at $22.50 per ounce break easily. The next major support sits at $21.80. Resistance now forms at $23.20. RSI: 38, nearing oversold 50-day MA: $23.45, acting as resistance 200-day MA: $23.60, confirming bearish crossover Key support: $21.80 per ounce Key resistance: $23.20 per ounce Expert Insights on Silver Market Outlook Market analysts offer varied perspectives on the silver price today decline. Some view it as a buying opportunity. Others warn of further downside. “The current correction reflects healthy market dynamics,” says a senior commodity strategist. “Silver remains undervalued relative to gold and its industrial potential.” Long-term fundamentals support this view. Global solar energy installations continue to grow. Each gigawatt of solar capacity requires significant silver. This demand driver remains intact despite short-term price weakness. However, short-term headwinds persist. The US dollar index shows strength. Interest rate expectations remain elevated. These factors could keep silver under pressure for weeks. Traders should watch for key economic data releases. US employment figures and inflation reports will influence the next move. A weaker dollar or lower rates could reverse the trend quickly. Impact on Investors and Industries The silver price today decline affects various stakeholders. Miners face lower revenue margins. Companies with higher production costs may reduce output. This supply response could eventually support prices. Jewelry and silverware manufacturers benefit from lower input costs. They may increase production or pass savings to consumers. Industrial users, particularly in electronics and renewable energy, gain from reduced expenses. Retail investors holding physical silver or ETFs see portfolio values decrease. Long-term holders often view such dips as accumulation opportunities. The historical pattern shows silver recovers strongly after corrections. The 2020 pandemic crash saw silver drop to $12 per ounce. It later rallied to over $28. This volatility creates both risk and reward. Conclusion Silver price today falls according to Bitcoin World data, driven by a stronger dollar, rising yields, and industrial demand concerns. The decline reflects broader macroeconomic pressures. However, long-term fundamentals remain supportive. Investors should monitor key support levels and economic indicators. Silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial metal ensures continued market interest. Understanding these dynamics helps navigate the current volatility. FAQs Q1: Why is silver price falling today? A: Silver price today falls due to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and concerns about industrial demand from China. These factors create headwinds for the precious metal. Q2: What is the silver price today according to Bitcoin World? A: Bitcoin World data shows silver trading lower by approximately 1.5% in the last 24 hours, breaking through key support levels around $22.50 per ounce. Q3: Should I buy silver now that the price is falling? A: This depends on your investment strategy. Some analysts view the decline as a buying opportunity. Others recommend waiting for clearer signs of a bottom. Consider your risk tolerance and time horizon. Q4: How does a stronger US dollar affect silver price? A: A stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for holders of other currencies. This reduces demand and pushes prices lower. The inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities is well established. Q5: What are the key support levels for silver? A: After breaking $22.50, the next major support level is $21.80 per ounce. A break below that could lead to a test of $21.00. Resistance now forms at $23.20. Q6: How does industrial demand impact silver price? A: Silver is essential in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices. Slowing industrial activity, especially in China, reduces demand and puts downward pressure on prices. Long-term growth in solar energy supports future demand. This post Silver Price Today: Silver Falls Sharply as Market Sentiment Shifts – Bitcoin World Data Reveals Key Trends first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
