hodler

18 Mar 2026, 15:01

Ethereum Staking at 30% of Supply Tightens Available Market Float

18 Mar 2026, 14:59

XRP Market Cap Rise Reflects Growing Demand Beyond Price Action

18 Mar 2026, 14:58

STCE: Bitcoin's Retreat Can't Stop The Infrastructure Pivot

Summary Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF (STCE) offers diversified, cost-efficient exposure to crypto-related companies, with a 0.30% expense ratio and 56.7% 12-month total return. STCE’s performance closely tracks Bitcoin but benefits from diversification across mining, trading, banking, and blockchain tech, reducing volatility versus direct crypto ownership. Top holdings are concentrated in smaller-cap, high-beta crypto firms, increasing risk during downturns, though some are pivoting into AI infrastructure for more stable revenues. As STCE’s constituents shift toward AI and robotics, the ETF may decouple from Bitcoin over time, offering potential for more resilient, multi-year revenue streams. Overview As an investor that is optimistic on the outlook of the crypto markets, I try to maintain some exposure through various long-term instruments. I believe that the Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF ( STCE ) can be a great option for investors that want exposure to crypto, but want to achieve this exposure through a diversified approach. I believe the pivot to AI and robotics will deliver stable revenues for the companies it holds going forward. The fund offers a cost-efficient way to get exposure to the many companies that have crypto as part of their business operations or hold it on the balance sheet. STCE has a very reasonable expense ratio of 0.30% of managed assets. Looking at the performance over the last twelve months, we can see that STCE has provided a massive total return of 56.7%. This can mostly be attributed to Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) massive run above the $120K mark in the tail end of 2025. Since then, Bitcoin has retreated from its highs and STCE's price followed the same momentum. However, the fund's diversity has helped the fund hold onto some of those prior gains. The main thing that investors should be aware of is the elevated level of volatility that STCE can experience at times. Data by YCharts As you may already know, Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset class and this can sway many risk-averse investors away from maintaining exposure. While STCE has also displayed some volatility, the structure helps diversify risks and may result in less dramatic share price swings compared to if an investor were to hold Bitcoin by itself. Despite the diversity of the fund, I would still consider STCE to be a high risk/high reward type of ETF. The success of STCE ultimately depends on the expansion of the crypto markets and if we go through a crypto winter, I anticipate STCE's returns to be minimal. So let's start by taking a look at the underlying strategy that the fund implements. Fund Strategy STCE is a passively managed ETF that aims to mirror the performance of the Schwab Crypto Thematic Index. The primary goal is to provide direct exposure to companies that have the ability to benefit from the utilization of cryptocurrencies, with include Bitcoin and other large-cap cryptos, such as Ethereum ( ETH-USD ). It's important to understand that STCE doesn't actually provide exposure to Bitcoin itself and instead chooses to maintain exposure to companies that can benefit from the rise of Bitcoin's value. This means that STCE instantly provides exposure to the many different sub-sectors within the crypto industry, which includes the following: Mining Trading Banking Blockchain Technologies Therefore, STCE does offer diversity but its assets are still ultra-concentrated to the crypto markets. As we can see below, the fund is most heavily allocated into positions that are classified as technology companies at 65.56% of assets. This is followed by an allocation to financials that make up the remaining 34.29% of assets. At any give time, the fund may hold anywhere between 35-45 different positions, based on market conditions. STCE will rebalance its holdings on a quarterly basis to ensure that its positions align with its initial goals. So if a company changes its business operations away from the crypto market, the position would be dropped. Seeking Alpha When looking at the positions in STCE, we can see a wide variety of holdings that go beyond Bitcoin treasury companies. For instance, Hut 8 Corp. ( HUT ) is the largest holding at 6.67% of assets. This is followed by varying positions in other notable crypto companies, including Cipher Digital Inc. ( CIFR ), Galaxy Digital Inc. ( GLXY ), IREN Limited ( IREN ), and Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. ( HIVE ), just to name a few. STCE is a bit top-heavy since its top ten positions make up more than ~50% of total assets. Seeking Alpha Since crypto isn't necessarily a sector of the market that is exclusive to the U.S., STCE does provide some small exposure to global securities across different regions of Europe, Asia, and Canada. However, 73.9% of assets are still allocated to U.S. focused positions. Lastly, I believe the most notable aspect of the ETF's structure is that positions aren't exclusively allocated to large-cap positions. There are some issues I have with this allocation because I believe it can increase the risk of STCE during crypto winters. I would much rather a fund be most heavily allocated to large-cap holdings because these tend to be more established businesses with legacy operating segments. Furthermore, large-cap companies can be included in the indices, which leads to forced buying over time. Schwab By choosing to focus on these smaller businesses, STCE introduces investors to the risk of severe downturns. These lower market cap companies tend to have lower trading volumes and can result in rapid downward movements during large crypto selloffs. However, the irony is that STCE's overall diversity and inclusion of the larger-cap businesses helps offset these issues. For instance, businesses like Bitfarms Ltd. ( BITF ) have the ability to pivot their business to something like AI data processing in order to provide some flexibility in earnings. I also think it's important to dig into the details of what impacts the direction of STCE's movements. At their core, the majority of its positions are industrial power plays within the crypto market. However, these aren't the traditional industrial blue chip companies you may be used to. Instead, the majority of the companies rely on the profitability of their mining efforts, which is when a company has computers solving complex problems to get rewarded with Bitcoin. To stay profitable, they simply need the value of the Bitcoin earned to be higher than the price of the electricity used to mine. Therefore, STCE's share price can be directly impacted by the operating spreads here over time. So in a way, STCE can actually expose investors to more risk than owning Bitcoin itself. With the growing energy demands around the world, it isn't to hard to image a scenario where the cost of electricity or the hardware rises. When Bitcoin's price is high, these costs aren't much of an issue. Conversely, a lower price of Bitcoin can squeeze their margins and cause declines. So the real success of STCE comes from whether or not its holdings will be able to keep costs low and continue to pivot into other revenue streams to reduce reliance on a higher Bitcoin price. The Pivot: Outlook and Risks Forward looking, the success of STCE relies on the bullish momentum of Bitcoin. Ever since STCE launched, the share price closely mirrored the overall trajectory of Bitcoin. As we can see below, the price charts look nearly identical as they share the same spikes and declines. So going forward, this continues to be the largest driver for STCE's success. now that Bitcoin has retreated from its all-time highs, this does look like an interesting area to begin accumulating. However, there's still the risk that the decline steepens at some point in the past and it's challenging to know what will cause a decline. Data by YCharts However, I assessed many of the top ten positions within STCE and I believe there are several drivers that can help STCE remain more resilient in the scenario of a decline. It ultimately comes down to a company's ability to pivot its operations and expand the revenue sources. I believe that the following positions have already started to demonstrate their ability to do so, which means that their positive momentum may become less reliant on the growth of Bitcoin: Hut 8 Corp: managed confirmed that their shift towards AI infrastructure , which helps them target execution and delivery. They recently signed a massive deal with Anthropic to deliver 245 megawatts of AI data center infrastructure. Hive Digital Technologies: Recently partnered with AMC robotics to advance AI driven compute infrastructure. Bitdeer Technologies Group ( BTDR ): recently deployed NVIDIA Corporation's ( NVDA ) GB200 NVL72 system in Malaysia. The business continues to expand on AI hubs across the globe. If these businesses continue to pivot into these infrastructure related segments, the way they are viewed and rated will fundamentally change. I think we are shifting out of the era of erratic revenues and into the era of multi-year contracts that are secured sources of stable revenue. If STCE's holdings are capable of expanding their energized power capacity, I believe that STCE is positioned for success, regardless of whether or not Bitcoin continues to rise. However, the decoupling from Bitcoin may take several years as these businesses pivot. As it stands, many of the businesses can remain vulnerable to a scenario of a deeper decline in Bitcoin. In my opinion, it is great that these companies are pivoting into the AI infrastructure space but I think it comes from a place of survival. If they do not pivot, profitability and margins will get squeezed with every halving cycle. With every halving, the miner's receive less revenue and the risks further deterioration remains for any businesses that have not been able to make the pivot into AI infrastructure. Alternatives With the growing acceptance of Bitcoin related funds, there are several different alternative ETFs for investors to choose from. Although I like STCE's structure, I though it would be fair to share some options for investors to choose from. Many of the underlying vulnerabilities are the same with these funds, but their portfolio strategies vary and may lead to different results over a longer holding period. I believe that two alternative choices are the following: Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF ( BLOK ) Fidelity Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF ( FDIG ) As we can see below, STCE is the most cost-efficient fund since it has the lowest expense ratio. However, it is also the newest fund with the smallest level of assets under management. BLOK is similar to STCE, but the difference is that BLOK is actively managed. This means that managers can pivot away from struggling minders or underperformers quickly, rather than waiting for the quarterly timeframe. Seeking Alpha FDIG offers a more balance approach to its portfolio and leans more heavily into the payment processing side of the crypto markets. The ETF holds large-cap companies like PayPal Holdings, Inc. ( PYPL ), which have only dipped their toes into crypto, rather than make it their entire business model. This can be a great option for investors that have a lower risk tolerance to the huge volatility spikes the crypto market can experience. While FDIG can be more stable, it likely has the lowest chance of seeing rapid growth during market rallies. When comparing the performance of the funds, we can see that BLOK has outperformed since STCE's inception. However, we can see that their performance charts look very similar in price action. This indicates that they are all vulnerable to the overall momentum of Bitcoin in some capacity. Interestingly, STCE had the highest return when bitcoin reached all-time highs, likely due to its higher beta holdings. Data by YCharts Takeaway In conclusion, I believe that STCE can be an attractive holding for investors that want exposure to Bitcoin related companies. The ETF provides a diverse exposure that is similar to a 'picks and shovels' approach for digital assets. These businesses have historically been tied to the price action of Bitcoin but I believe this is starting to shift. As STCE's holdings pivot into different segments of AI infrastructure and robotics, I believe that these companies will eventually have more stable sources of revenue. We've already seen many examples where STCE's holdings have secured massive deals that can secure multi-year streams of income. So for the investor that wants exposure to crypto without directly owning the asset, STCE is a great option.

18 Mar 2026, 14:57

Solana Bears Should Not Overstay Their Welcome

18 Mar 2026, 14:55

XRP Wallet Growth to 7.7M Raises Questions About Price Sustainability

18 Mar 2026, 14:55

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Reveals Critical Outlook After Holding Rates Steady

BitcoinWorld Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Reveals Critical Outlook After Holding Rates Steady Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a pivotal speech in Ottawa on Wednesday, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook following its decision to hold its key policy interest rate steady at 5.0%. This crucial announcement maintains the benchmark rate at its highest level in over two decades, signaling a continued focus on taming persistent inflationary pressures while navigating a fragile economic landscape. Bank of Canada Holds Firm on Interest Rates Governor Macklem confirmed the Governing Council’s unanimous decision to maintain the target for the overnight rate at five percent. Consequently, the Bank Rate remains at 5.25% and the deposit rate at 5.0%. This marks the sixth consecutive meeting where officials have held the policy rate unchanged, following a rapid hiking cycle that began in March 2022. The central bank continues its policy of quantitative tightening. Recent economic data provided the rationale for this pause. For instance, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.7% in April, moving closer to the Bank’s 2% target. However, Governor Macklem emphasized that underlying price pressures remain. Core inflation measures, which strip out volatile components, are still hovering around 3%. Shelter cost inflation also remains exceptionally high. Macklem’s Detailed Economic Assessment In his remarks, Governor Macklem presented a balanced yet cautious assessment of the Canadian economy. Global economic growth strengthened in the first quarter of 2025, notably in the United States. However, he noted that growth in Canada has been more subdued. Real GDP growth stalled in late 2024 and early 2025, with demand outpacing supply. The labor market, a key indicator, has continued to gradually ease. Job creation has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Wage growth, while still elevated at around 5%, is showing early signs of moderating. Overall, the Governor stated that the current data suggests the economy is operating in modest excess supply, a necessary condition for returning inflation sustainably to target. Inflation Outlook and Future Risks Governor Macklem spent significant time detailing the inflation forecast. The Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report projects CPI inflation to remain near 3% through the middle of 2025 before gradually declining to the 2% target in the second half of 2026. This timeline is slightly extended from previous forecasts, reflecting stubborn core inflation. He outlined several key risks to this outlook: Global geopolitical tensions: Potential disruptions to commodity prices and supply chains. Housing market dynamics: Persistent strength in shelter costs driven by high mortgage interest costs and rising rents. Wage-price spiral: The risk that high wage growth could embed inflation expectations. Weaker global demand: A sharper-than-expected slowdown, particularly in the U.S., could impact Canadian exports. The Path Forward for Monetary Policy Governor Macklem was clear that the Governing Council is debating how long to maintain the current restrictive stance. The Bank’s future decisions will be data-dependent, with a focus on the balance between demand and supply, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior. He reiterated that the Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians. Financial markets closely parsed his language for hints on the timing of potential rate cuts. While he did not provide a specific calendar, his tone suggested the Governing Council needs to see further and sustained progress on core inflation before considering easing policy. The Bank’s next scheduled interest rate announcement is set for September 5, 2025, accompanied by a full update to the Monetary Policy Report. Comparative Central Bank Policy The Bank of Canada’s stance aligns cautiously with other major central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve has also held rates steady, while the European Central Bank recently began a gradual easing cycle. The table below summarizes the current policy rate positions as of July 2025: Central Bank Policy Rate Recent Action Bank of Canada 5.00% Held Steady U.S. Federal Reserve 5.25-5.50% Held Steady European Central Bank 3.75% 25 bps Cut in June Bank of England 5.25% Held Steady This divergence reflects differing economic conditions, particularly the relative strength of the U.S. economy versus more subdued growth in Canada and Europe. Implications for Canadians and Businesses The decision to hold rates has immediate consequences. Variable-rate mortgage holders and those with lines of credit will see no change in their borrowing costs for now. However, the extended period of high rates continues to strain household budgets, particularly for those renewing fixed-rate mortgages at significantly higher rates than their previous terms. For businesses, the high cost of capital persists, potentially dampening investment and expansion plans. Governor Macklem acknowledged these pressures but stressed that restoring low and stable inflation is the foundation for long-term economic prosperity. He expressed confidence that inflation will continue to decline gradually, allowing for a eventual normalization of interest rates. Conclusion Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech provided a sober and detailed rationale for maintaining the policy interest rate at 5.0%. The central bank’s outlook hinges on a gradual decline in inflation toward its 2% target by late 2026, contingent on continued economic softening and easing labor market conditions. While the hold decision offers short-term stability, the path forward remains data-dependent, with the Bank of Canada prepared to maintain its restrictive stance as long as necessary to ensure price stability for all Canadians. FAQs Q1: Why did the Bank of Canada decide to keep interest rates unchanged? The Bank of Canada held rates steady because while headline inflation has eased, core inflation measures remain sticky around 3%. The Governing Council needs to see further and sustained progress toward the 2% target before considering rate cuts, ensuring inflation does not become entrenched. Q2: What is the Bank of Canada’s current inflation forecast? According to Governor Macklem, CPI inflation is projected to hover near 3% through mid-2025 before gradually declining to the 2% target in the second half of 2026. This timeline reflects persistent pressures in shelter costs and core services. Q3: When might the Bank of Canada start cutting interest rates? Governor Macklem did not provide a specific timeline. Future decisions will be data-dependent. Most analysts expect the first rate cut could occur in late 2025 or early 2026, provided there is clear evidence of cooling core inflation and a softer labor market. Q4: How does the Bank of Canada’s decision compare to the U.S. Federal Reserve? Both central banks are currently holding rates steady at restrictive levels. The BoC’s key rate is 5.0%, while the Fed’s target range is 5.25-5.50%. The Fed is also awaiting more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% before easing policy. Q5: What does this mean for my mortgage or loans? If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit tied to the prime rate, your payments will remain unchanged for now. If you are renewing a fixed-rate mortgage, you will still face significantly higher rates than during the low-rate period. The extended hold suggests relief from high borrowing costs may still be several months away. This post Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Reveals Critical Outlook After Holding Rates Steady first appeared on BitcoinWorld .