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26 Feb 2026, 10:00

Bitcoin-Stock Correlation Hits Weakest Level Since 2022—Will It Last?

Bitcoin has recently become the least correlated to the stock market since the FTX crash back in 2022, according to analytics firm Santiment. Bitcoin Has Broken Away From S&P 500 In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed how Bitcoin has moved relative to the stock market recently. The number one digital asset has faced a downtrend alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency sector in the last few months that has taken its price below $70,000. Compared to six months ago, BTC is today down 43%. Historically, the asset has generally shown some degree of correlation with the stocks. “For years, Bitcoin has often moved in the same direction as the stock market, particularly the S&P 500,” noted Santiment. Lately, however, this trend has broken. While BTC has gone down, the S&P 500 is up 7% in the past six months. Below is a chart that shows how the price trajectories of the two assets have compared. According to Santiment, this is the weakest correlation that Bitcoin has shown to the stocks since November 2022. Back then, the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX induced a price crash for the asset that caused it to diverge from the S&P 500. This previous breakaway for the cryptocurrency was different from the current one, however, as it lasted only briefly. The latest one, on the other hand, has been rather persistent. “Instead of moving alongside equities, Bitcoin has sharply underperformed while traditional markets have remained stable and gold has thrived,” said the analytics firm. Now, will the decoupling that Bitcoin has experienced from the S&P 500 last? If the past is anything to go by, the answer may lean toward no. “Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” explained Santiment. The S&P 500 isn’t the only traditional asset that Bitcoin has diverged from; Gold has also charted a different path from BTC recently, despite the latter being popularly considered the former’s digital analogue. In an X post , CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared the data of an indicator that tracks the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and Gold. As displayed in the above graph, BTC mostly observed a positive degree of correlation to Gold between 2022 and the first three quarters of 2025. Since the last quarter of 2025, however, the correlation metric has plummeted into the negative zone for the assets. A negative correlation implies that while the two assets exhibit a relationship, it’s of the negative kind. In other words, it means the assets are moving in opposite directions. “Bitcoin is in a “not digital gold” period,” said Young Ju. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, down 2% over the last week.

26 Feb 2026, 10:00

XRP Rally Incoming? Analyst Forecasts March-April Recovery If This Level Breaks

During the Wednesday market recovery, XRP surged 7.9% to hit a one-week high of $1.47. The cryptocurrency has been hovering between $1.35-$1.50 over the past three weeks but has failed to break above the local range’s upper boundary. As the price nears this resistance once again, an analyst has suggested that a short-term rally toward another critical level could be brewing, potentially setting the stage for the altcoin to decide its next market direction by the end of Q2. Related Reading: The ‘Next-Generation Trading Chain’: BNB Chain Eyes 2026 Optimization Following Strong Ecosystem Momentum XRP To See March Breakout On Wednesday, analyst ChartNerd called for a short-term 20%-30% XRP rally in the next month or two, affirming that “relief is overdue” after six months of continuous downside pressure. In a video analysis, the market observer affirmed that the cryptocurrency is attempting to build a base within its local range to retest a crucial resistance level after losing the $1.80-$2.00 area as support in January. As he explained, XRP is attempting to form an ascending triangle or double bottom pattern in the daily timeframe, with the formation’s neckline sitting around the $1.50 mark. Based on this, if the altcoin “coils up inside this triangle and eventually gets a breakout heading into March, this is where the potential lies of rallying back up to $1.80” to retest this previous area of support as resistance. Meanwhile, if the cryptocurrency is forming a double bottom pattern, the analyst noted that “even a retrace to the $1.20 level would still mark a higher low before a short-term bullish reversal.” In both cases, breaking out of the $1.50 resistance would validate a move toward the $1.80-$2.00 area, which he considers “a critical inflection point” as XRP held it as support for 400 days. It would be a critical inflection point. I mean, potentially, we could respect some sort of ascending channel here as well, leading into March, which is what may guide us up to that $1.80 resistance. (…) If XRP does sort of respect these trend lines, it’s resistance. We’re back at support. Is A Critical Retest Ahead? Despite the bullish outlook, ChartNerd warned that XRP still risks a correction of up to 50%. Per the analyst, the $1.80 retest will determine whether this area has turned into resistance and the price will continue to go lower, or if it will be reclaimed and push to higher levels. “If the rally into $1.80/$2 unfolds in March/April, that will be the telltale sign of whether $0.70 is on the cards or not. Breaking cleanly above $2 signals strength and invalidation of that potential. Rejecting it as resistance would then cause a potential $0.70 drop,” he added on X. A reclaim of this key area as support could open the doors for a retest of the golden $2.40-$2.70 range, not visited since the Q4 2025 crash. It could also signal that the corrective period may be over. Related Reading: Bitcoin Positioned For More Pain Following Weekly Close Below This Critical Level However, he recently cautioned that losing the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in the weekly timeframe and confirming it as resistance has historically signaled a major drop toward the $0.70 area. In previous cycles, XRP entered a deep corrective move when it failed to hold this level, crashing around 50% to its bear market bottom. Therefore, he emphasized that the cryptocurrency needs a convincing reclaim of its crucial area to invalidate this potential outcome. As of this writing, XRP is trading at $1.46, a 2.7% increase on the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

26 Feb 2026, 10:00

Bitcoin ETFs regain momentum with $507M inflows as BTC reclaims $68K

The fresh inflows lift US Bitcoin ETFs toward a potential first weekly gain after five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $3.8 billion.

26 Feb 2026, 10:00

Indiana Lawmakers Secure Rights for Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Indiana lawmakers approved a bill to protect rights for Bitcoin and other digital assets. The legislation bans discriminatory taxes and permits crypto investments in public pension funds. Continue Reading: Indiana Lawmakers Secure Rights for Bitcoin and Digital Assets The post Indiana Lawmakers Secure Rights for Bitcoin and Digital Assets appeared first on COINTURK NEWS .

26 Feb 2026, 10:00

GBP Forecast: How Political Winds and BoE Policy Shape the Pound’s Critical Path

BitcoinWorld GBP Forecast: How Political Winds and BoE Policy Shape the Pound’s Critical Path LONDON, April 2025 – The British Pound Sterling (GBP) navigates a complex financial landscape, where domestic political developments and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy stance serve as its primary guides. According to a recent analysis from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), one of the world’s largest financial institutions, these two forces create a powerful dual narrative for the currency’s valuation. This analysis comes at a pivotal time for the UK economy, as markets digest the latest inflation data and assess the trajectory of interest rates against a backdrop of shifting political priorities. The interplay between Westminster and Threadneedle Street continues to dictate short-term volatility and long-term direction for the GBP, influencing everything from international trade balances to household purchasing power. GBP Forecast: The Dual Pillars of Political and Monetary Policy Currency valuation rarely depends on a single factor. For the British Pound, the convergence of fiscal and monetary policy creates its fundamental roadmap. MUFG’s currency strategists emphasize that while economic data like GDP growth, employment figures, and trade deficits provide essential background, the active decisions made by politicians and central bankers generate the most immediate market movements. Consequently, the BoE’s interest rate decisions directly impact the Pound’s yield attractiveness. Simultaneously, government policies on taxation, public spending, and regulation shape investor confidence and long-term capital flows. This dynamic ensures that the GBP remains particularly sensitive to announcements from both Downing Street and the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Historical data underscores this relationship. For instance, periods of political stability and clear, consistent fiscal policy have often correlated with a stronger Pound. Conversely, times of political uncertainty, such as during coalition negotiations or major policy U-turns, typically introduce volatility and downward pressure. On the monetary side, a hawkish BoE stance—signaling higher interest rates to combat inflation—traditionally supports the GBP by attracting foreign investment into UK assets. A dovish stance, prioritizing growth over inflation control, can have the opposite effect. MUFG’s analysis suggests that in 2025, the balance between these pillars is especially delicate, with both facing significant tests. Bank of England Policy: The Interest Rate Compass The Bank of England’s primary mandate is price stability, targeting a 2% inflation rate. Its tools for achieving this are bank rate adjustments and quantitative easing or tightening. As of early 2025, the MPC faces the challenging task of guiding inflation back to target without stifling economic growth. Each meeting, statement, and vote count is scrutinized by forex traders globally. The specific guidance on future rate paths, known as forward guidance, is often more impactful than the immediate rate decision itself. When the BoE signals a prolonged period of higher rates, the Pound frequently strengthens. If the committee hints at potential cuts to support a faltering economy, the currency may weaken. Recent MPC minutes and speeches by Governor Andrew Bailey and other members provide critical context. Their assessment of core inflation trends, wage growth persistence, and service sector inflation directly informs market expectations. MUFG analysts track these communications closely, comparing the BoE’s trajectory with those of other major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The interest rate differential between the UK and its peers is a key driver of GBP/USD and GBP/EUR exchange rates. A widening differential in the UK’s favor supports the Pound, while a narrowing one poses headwinds. Data-Driven Decisions and Market Reactions The BoE does not operate in a vacuum. Its policy is a reaction to verifiable economic data. The following table highlights key metrics the MPC monitors and their typical impact on GBP sentiment: Economic Indicator Source High Reading Impact on GBP Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Office for National Statistics (ONS) Generally positive (supports hawkish stance) Core CPI (excl. energy, food) Office for National Statistics (ONS) Strongly positive (indicates persistent inflation) Average Earnings Index Office for National Statistics (ONS) Positive (can fuel inflation, prompting rate hikes) Services PMI S&P Global/CIPS Mixed (strong growth may delay rate cuts) Unemployment Rate Office for National Statistics (ONS) Negative (may encourage dovish policy) Market reactions to this data are often immediate. A higher-than-expected inflation print can cause the Pound to spike as traders price in a greater chance of a BoE rate hike. Conversely, weak growth or employment data can trigger a sell-off. MUFG’s research notes that in 2025, the sensitivity to wage growth and services inflation data is particularly acute, as these are seen as stickier components that the BoE is focused on taming. UK Politics and the Fiscal Landscape While the BoE manages monetary policy, the UK government controls fiscal policy. The political landscape, therefore, guides the Pound through several channels. First, the government’s budget decisions affect the country’s debt trajectory and creditworthiness. A credible plan for sustainable public finances tends to bolster the Pound. Second, political stability reduces the ‘risk premium’ investors demand to hold UK assets. Periods of minority governments, leadership challenges, or contentious elections often see the GBP depreciate due to increased uncertainty. Third, specific sectoral policies—on energy, financial services, trade, and regulation—influence foreign direct investment flows, which are a fundamental driver of currency demand. The current government’s stated priorities, such as levels of public investment, tax policies, and post-Brexit trade relations, are under constant market assessment. Announcements of major spending initiatives without clear funding plans can worry bond investors, leading to higher gilt yields and potential Pound weakness if it threatens economic stability. Conversely, policies perceived as boosting long-term productivity and competitiveness can attract sustained capital inflows. MUFG points out that the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy is also critical. For example, a large, stimulative government budget could force the BoE to keep rates higher for longer to offset inflationary pressures, creating a complex feedback loop for the GBP. The Brexit Legacy and International Trade The long-term implications of the UK’s departure from the European Union continue to shape the economic backdrop. The nature of the UK’s trade agreements, regulatory alignment or divergence, and the performance of key export sectors all feed into the current account balance—a key fundamental for any currency. A widening trade deficit can be a drag on the Pound, as it implies more Pounds are being sold to buy foreign goods and services than are being bought for UK exports. Political decisions regarding border controls, regulatory standards, and international partnerships directly impact these flows. MUFG’s analysis incorporates these structural factors into its longer-term GBP forecasts, noting that political choices in these areas have multi-year consequences for currency valuation. Synthesizing the Outlook: MUFG’s Analytical Framework MUFG brings its expertise to bear by synthesizing these political and monetary signals into a coherent currency outlook. Their analysts weigh the probability of various policy outcomes, assess market positioning, and consider technical chart levels. Their reports often highlight scenarios, such as: Bullish GBP Scenario: Persistent inflation data forces a prolonged hawkish BoE stance alongside a stable government delivering growth-friendly, fiscally responsible policies. Bearish GBP Scenario: The BoE pivots to rate cuts earlier than expected due to a sharp economic slowdown, coinciding with political turmoil or an unfunded fiscal expansion. Range-Bound Scenario: The BoE and other major central banks move in sync, and UK politics enter a period of stalemate, leading to low volatility and directional conviction. This scenario analysis is valuable for businesses, investors, and policymakers who need to manage GBP exposure. By providing a clear framework that separates political drivers from monetary ones, MUFG helps clients understand not just where the Pound might be headed, but why. Their authoritative voice in the market adds weight to this analysis, drawing on decades of experience in global currency markets. Conclusion The trajectory of the British Pound remains firmly guided by the intertwined forces of UK politics and Bank of England policy. As MUFG’s analysis underscores, investors must monitor both the voting patterns of the Monetary Policy Committee and the legislative agenda in Parliament. The BoE’s response to inflation data sets the interest rate tone, directly impacting the GBP’s yield appeal. Simultaneously, the government’s fiscal decisions and the overall political climate shape the long-term investment case for the United Kingdom. In 2025, with global economic uncertainty lingering, understanding this dual guidance system is more critical than ever for anyone with exposure to the GBP forecast. The Pound’s path will ultimately be carved by the ongoing dialogue—and sometimes tension—between these two powerful institutions. FAQs Q1: What is the most immediate factor affecting the GBP day-to-day? The most immediate factor is often shifts in market expectations for Bank of England interest rates, driven by economic data releases, speeches from MPC members, or changes in global risk sentiment. Q2: How do general elections typically impact the British Pound? Elections usually increase volatility due to policy uncertainty. The Pound often weakens in the run-up to an election if the outcome is unclear or if a party proposing significant fiscal change leads in polls. A clear result that promises stability can lead to a rally. Q3: Why does the Bank of England’s policy matter more than other central banks for the GBP? While all central banks matter, the BoE is the UK’s own. Its policy directly sets the base interest rate for Sterling, influencing the return on all GBP-denominated assets. Comparative policy with the Fed and ECB creates the critical interest rate differentials that drive major currency pairs like GBP/USD and GBP/EUR. Q4: Can strong UK economic growth alone make the Pound stronger? Not necessarily. Strong growth can strengthen the Pound if it leads to expectations of higher interest rates from the BoE to prevent overheating. However, if growth is driven by debt-fueled consumer spending that worsens the trade deficit, it could eventually pressure the currency. Q5: What does MUFG’s analysis provide that standard market commentary does not? MUFG provides institutional-grade analysis that combines deep fundamental research, market flow insight, and a global perspective. Their reports often include proprietary models, scenario probability assessments, and actionable trade ideas for a professional client base, adding a layer of expertise and authority. This post GBP Forecast: How Political Winds and BoE Policy Shape the Pound’s Critical Path first appeared on BitcoinWorld .

26 Feb 2026, 10:00

Bitcoin’s KEY metric hits 2024 lows as BTC eyes $70K – Caution ahead?

Bitcoin's spot volume dropped to 2024 low levels amid low market liquidity.