hodler

7 Feb 2026, 12:11

MSTX: Might Get De-Listed

Summary MSTX, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF, remains a 'Sell' after collapsing over 90% in the past year. The ETF’s structure amplifies downside as MSTR shares fall, with current price action risking delisting unless a reverse split occurs. MSTR’s balance sheet is stable until 2028, but its equity is highly sensitive to further bitcoin declines, driving continued bearishness. The fund’s shrinking AUM and persistent bitcoin bear market signal further downside for MSTX, with no near-term bankruptcy risk for MSTR. Thesis We last covered the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF ( MSTX ) late last year, when we assigned the ETF a 'Sell' rating. The fund has collapsed since: Rating (Seeking Alpha) In our prior article, we outlined the mechanics of this leveraged ETF, and highlighted how, from a performance standpoint, the name was set for a very poor 2025. This year has been no different, and the current fund level could lead to a delisting. First things first - what does the fund do? As per its objective, the ETF provides for the 2x return of Strategy ( MSTR ) on a daily basis. The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF (the “Fund”) seeks daily leveraged investment results of two times (200%) the daily percentage change in the share price of MicroStrategy Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) (the “Underlying Security” or “MSTR”). Because the fund seeks daily leveraged investment results, it is very different from most other exchange-traded funds. It is also riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage. There is no guarantee that the Fund will meet its stated objective. The fund should not be expected to provide 2 times the cumulative return of MSTR for periods greater than a day. If MSTR moves lower in price, the ETF is set for a much lower price point, action that we have seen this year: Data by YCharts Strategy is down -29% in 2026, all while MSTX is down -56%. This year the name has done a bit better than the 2x performance on a longer time-frame, but do remember the ETF is set to replicate daily moves rather than longer periods. Delisting fears After a -96% price collapse in the past year, the ETF is now trading at $1.67 per share: Data by YCharts Many investors might not know this, but exchanges such as the Nasdaq (where MSTX is traded) have minimum price requirements : Perhaps no listing standard affects more companies than the $1.00 minimum bid price rule. When a stock's closing bid price falls below $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days, NASDAQ issues a deficiency notice, triggering a 180-calendar-day compliance period. Companies can regain compliance by maintaining a closing bid at or above $1.00 for 10 consecutive business days. While most ETF issuers avoid the delisting issue by performing a reverse stock split, one has to be mindful of the management here. MSTX's AUM has now plummeted to $157 M, thus, the fund is getting smaller by the day. We need to see another plunge in the MSTR shares for MSTX to break $1/share, but the fund management might look into doing a reverse split before that. Latest results from Strategy Since MSTX is a leveraged daily take on Strategy, let us look at the latest financial results from the company: MSTR Balance Sheet (Company Financials) Strategy now has $2.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet, with the stated goal to use that as a reserve in order to pay dividends on its preferred shares. The other line item that is large is represented by its bitcoin holdings, which now account for $58 billion in the balance sheet. The company's debt stands at $8.1 billion, and is mostly made up of convertible issuances. The convertible debt was issued with very low coupon levels, and it represented a play on a price appreciation in Bitcoin. The nearest maturity date for the converts is 2028: Converts MSTR (Author / Company) In its latest earnings call, the CFO of the company stated the following regarding the convertible debt: “In the extreme downside, if we were to have a 90% decline in Bitcoin price to $8,000, which is pretty hard to imagine, that is the point at which our BTC reserve equals our net debt and we’ll not be able to then pay off of our convertibles using our Bitcoin reserve and we’d either look at restructuring, issuing additional equity, issuing an additional debt. And let me remind you: this is over the next five years. Right, so I’m not really worried at this point in time, even with Bitcoin drops,” said Le . It's interesting to note that the common equity is the one bearing the brunt of any negative price actions here. In fact, the entire Strategy mantra is around issuing common equity to buy more bitcoin or to prop up reserves to pay for preferred shares. There is nothing on the balance sheet until 2028 that can cause a collapse here for Strategy as long as they do not use the massive cash reserves for further bitcoin purchases. In 2025 the company was one of the top issuers of equity: Equity Issuance (Company Financials) As a reminder, the cash raised via common shares was used to purchase more bitcoin and set up the cash reserve. On the income statement side, the company offers an interesting picture: Income Statement (Company Financials) Many people would be surprised to find out that Strategy has a healthy software business that made $477 M in revenue in 2025. When Bitcoin was taken out, the company posted a healthy $327 M gross profit figure. Its holdings in Bitcoin created an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $5.4 billion last year, mostly coming in Q4 2025. Unless the company is forced to sell its bitcoin, those losses will remain unrealized. And as we saw from the balance sheet, the company is in good standing until 2028 if it does not use its cash balance for anything else outside servicing its preferred shares. Given its large holdings in bitcoin, the Strategy common shares are a direct take on bitcoin; thus, further losses will result in lower common share prices. Furthermore, the market is embedding any default risk via the common shares as well, although we do not think that is warranted until late 2027. We are of the opinion that we have entered a bear market in Bitcoin, and the crypto coin has further to fall; thus, we are bearish on both crypto and the MSTR common shares. This means MSTX has further to fall, and unless the manager does a reverse split, the ETF will get delisted as share prices fall below $1/share. Conclusion MSTX is a 2x daily leveraged take on the MSTR common shares. The ETF is down over -90% in the past year. Based on the latest Strategy financials, we see the company having more downside as bitcoin prices move lower. While there is no bankruptcy risk given the balance sheet, the common equity is set for lower levels as Bitcoin continues in a bear market. MSTX might do a reverse split soon or be forced to delist as its share price moves below $1/share. We are still a 'Sell' for this name.

7 Feb 2026, 12:08

Institutional ETH Holder Capitulates With 772,865 ETH Deposit to Binance

An institutional Ethereum bull has sold almost all of its ETH stash in a capitulation move that has caught the attention of the market.

7 Feb 2026, 12:05

Expert Says Get Your XRP Off the Exchanges Right Now. Here’s Why

Anxiety spreads quickly in cryptocurrency markets when volatility rises, and confidence begins to fracture. Early 2026 has delivered exactly that atmosphere, with sharp price swings , brief exchange disruptions, and renewed debates about control over digital assets. During uncertain periods, investors often revisit a foundational question that sits at the heart of crypto’s original promise: who truly holds custody of their funds? That conversation intensified after well-known XRP commentator Stellar Rippler issued an urgent warning calling on holders to move their tokens off centralized exchanges. His message arrived at a moment when traders already felt uneasy about market direction, operational reliability, and the long-term positioning of institutional players around XRP. Exchange Reliability and Market Psychology Short-lived technical interruptions on major trading platforms recently reignited long-standing fears about counterparty risk. Even when services resume quickly, the mere possibility of restricted withdrawals can shake confidence and trigger defensive reactions among investors. Crypto history has shown that trust, once questioned, takes time to rebuild. GET YOUR XRP OFF THE EXCHANGES RIGHT NOW!!!! This banker had already confessed that banks treated XRP as “pre-allocated liquidity.” David Schwartz also said “XRP escrow can be sold to institutions by Ripple but they will still not circulate until NDAs are disclosed.”… https://t.co/hCPuN2uaps — Stellar Rippler (@StellarNews007) February 5, 2026 These episodes do not automatically signal systemic failure, yet they remind participants that convenience always carries trade-offs. Centralized exchanges provide liquidity, speed, and accessibility, but they also require users to surrender direct control of private keys. In volatile environments, that compromise feels more significant. Escrow Structure and Institutional Speculation Stellar Rippler’s warning also connects to the broader debate surrounding Ripple’s escrowed XRP supply and potential institutional involvement. Ripple’s leadership has repeatedly explained that escrowed tokens cannot enter circulation before scheduled releases, even if ownership rights change hands privately . This structure maintains predictable supply conditions while still allowing strategic transactions behind the scenes. Supporters interpret these mechanics as evidence of long-term institutional preparation that avoids immediate market disruption. Skeptics view the same structure as fertile ground for speculation. Regardless of interpretation, the escrow system remains one of the most distinctive elements shaping XRP’s supply narrative and investor psychology. We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1 — TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025 The Self-Custody Principle At its core, the warning reflects a philosophical divide within crypto rather than confirmation of an active crisis. Self-custody places security responsibility entirely on the holder, removing dependence on third-party platforms. Exchange storage simplifies trading and portfolio management but introduces exposure to operational, regulatory, or technical risk. Each approach carries consequences, and no single solution fits every investor. What remains constant is the principle that ownership in crypto ultimately depends on control of private keys. That idea continues to resurface whenever uncertainty returns to the market. A Caution Shaped by Volatility Stellar Rippler’s message captures the emotional intensity of the current cycle, where fear, conviction, and speculation collide. Whether viewed as prudent risk management or dramatic caution, the warning highlights how quickly sentiment can shift when stability disappears. As 2026 unfolds, XRP holders must weigh security against convenience and strategy against emotion. In volatile markets, clarity of responsibility often matters as much as clarity of price direction. Disclaimer : This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in-depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses. Follow us on Twitter , Facebook , Telegram , and Google News The post Expert Says Get Your XRP Off the Exchanges Right Now. Here’s Why appeared first on Times Tabloid .

7 Feb 2026, 12:01

Here’s how much crypto BlackRock dumped in the first week of February

As the cryptocurrency market suffered heightened volatility in early February, BlackRock continued to reduce its exposure to both Bitcoin ( BTC ) and Ethereum ( ETH ). Across the five trading days from February 2 to February 6, the asset manager recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $343.3 million from its spot crypto ETFs , reflecting a cautious stance amid a turbulent week for digital assets. The bulk of the reduction came from BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which posted a net outflow of about $191.3 million over the period. While the fund attracted a notable inflow on February 2, this was more than offset by heavy redemptions later in the week, particularly as broader risk sentiment deteriorated and investors trimmed exposure following sharp price swings in Bitcoin. Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow. Source: Coinglass Meanwhile, BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF, ETHA, also came under sustained selling pressure throughout the week. Between February 2 and February 6, ETHA recorded a net outflow of approximately $152 million. The fund saw withdrawals of about $82.1 million on February 2, followed by a further $58.9 million on February 4, $8.5 million on February 5, and $45.4 million on February 6. These outflows were only partially offset by a $42.9 million inflow on February 3, leaving ETHA firmly in negative territory by the end of the week. Total Ethereum spot ETF net inflow. Source: Coinglass Mixed BlackRock ETF inflows Despite the overall drawdown, the week was not without pockets of resilience. On select days, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF still managed to attract fresh capital, suggesting that institutional interest has not disappeared entirely but has become more selective. These inflows, however, were overshadowed by larger redemptions as traders reacted to broader market stress. The pullback coincided with a volatile week for the crypto market more broadly. Bitcoin and Ethereum both experienced sharp declines early in the week, followed by uneven rebounds that failed to restore confidence. At some point, Bitcoin dropped below the $65,000 spot while Ethereum is struggling to sustain its price above teh $2,000 spot. Market data and sentiment indicators pointed to a clear risk-off mood, with investors prioritizing capital preservation amid concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidations, and fading momentum after January’s rally. While some altcoins showed relative strength and short-term speculative interest, flows into major assets remained under pressure. It is worth noting that the week’s redemptions from BlackRock’s ETFs were significantly smaller than those seen in the final week of January, when the world’s largest investment manager recorded outflows of roughly $1.2 billion . Featured image via Shutterstock The post Here’s how much crypto BlackRock dumped in the first week of February appeared first on Finbold .

7 Feb 2026, 12:00

XRP eyes $3 amid whale buying – Reversal or relief rally?

Retail panic hit XRP, but institutional demand and network growth now reshape the recovery narrative.

7 Feb 2026, 11:56

This IREN Selloff Makes No Sense I'm Buying Aggressively

Summary IREN controls over 4.5 GW of secured power, yet needs only ~460 MW to support $3.4 billion AI ARR by CY26. Approximately $2.3 billion of AI ARR is already contracted, including $1.9 billion from Microsoft and $0.4 billion from Prince George. Q2 revenue fell to $184.7 million, and net income swung to a $155 million loss, driven primarily by depreciation and non-cash charges. GPU capex is roughly 95% funded at sub-6% rates, leaving execution timing, not financing or demand, as the core variable. I do think that the extent to which the market sold off cannot be disassociated from what was going on from a broader macro perspective. Bitcoin prices declined significantly around the earnings announcement, and that really compressed sentiment across the mining industry. At the same time, hyperscaler capex guidance caused people to suddenly rethink returns within the broader AI infrastructure landscape. IREN Ltd. ( IREN ) sits at the intersection of these stories. The company still has mining exposure, and they are building AI infrastructure at scale. Where both factors are negative, a high-beta stock that is priced for execution will react violently. The narrative is not broken, but rather the monetization assumption is now clearly front-loaded on capital expenditures and back-loaded on revenues. This is a huge difference when the valuation is already tight and the macro environment is increasingly volatile. The market is reacting to the disappointment of the report, while the underlying numbers suggest a different story. Mining Is the Past - Capacity Is the Thesis I think that the business of IREN is not the business of a Bitcoin miner anymore, despite the fact that the business of Bitcoin mining is still the lion's share of the revenues. The business of Bitcoin mining is best understood as a legacy business that the company has deliberately capped. The business of Bitcoin mining is intentionally not growing, which is a perfectly reasonable business decision. The consequence of this decision is that the business of Bitcoin mining can no longer grow enough to offset the volatility of the rest of the business. Another important nuance is the difference between contracted ARR and recognized revenue. As of February 2026, IREN reported approximately $2.3 billion of ARR under contract. This breaks down into around $1.9 billion related to the Microsoft contract and the remaining ~$0.4 billion related to the Prince George deployment in British Columbia. The important point here is that much of this revenue under contract has yet to start generating revenue. This is why AI Cloud Services revenue in Q2 was only $17.3 million , up from $7.3 million in Q1. It is also why this revenue is still immaterial to the consolidated income statement. What the earnings miss revealed is not a problem with demand but the cost of capitalizing this future revenue before it is earned. IREN Limited 2026 Q2 On the surface of things, Q2 was a tough quarter. Revenue declined sequentially to $184.7 million. Net income turned into a loss of $155 million. EBITDA turned negative by a similar amount. But what’s important here is what drove these results. Mining revenue declined due to a decrease in Bitcoin prices and difficulty rates remaining high. This was expected due to the limited supply of hashrate. AI revenue sequentially improved but remains small compared to the cost base now embedded in the business. Depreciation expense also jumped to over $99 million as IREN capitalized data center infrastructure and GPUs. Non-cash items such as impairments related to the ASIC-to-GPU transition in British Columbia also skewed GAAP profitability. Adjusted EBITDA remains positive at $75 million. This doesn’t make the quarter good, but it does underscore that asset economics haven’t fallen off a cliff. The real business is AI infrastructure, and the relevant assets are not GPUs or buildings. They're power, grid access, and delivery speed. In that regard, IREN is further along than the market appears to appreciate. The secured power, grid access, and delivery speed that the company now has in place is in excess of 4.5 GW , including the addition of the 1.6 GW Oklahoma campus. Of that total, only about 460 MW is required to achieve the company's stated $3.4 billion AI Cloud ARR target for CY26. IREN Limited 2026 Q2 That ratio is the key to the whole story. About 10% of the company's secured power is required to achieve the company's stated revenue target. The other 90% is not excess in the economic sense. It's an option that the company can use as it goes forward and the contracts that customers sign come due. The Bear Case Is Fundamentally Wrong I suspect the bear thesis collapses because it treats IREN as a commoditized neocloud operator rather than an infrastructure owner with a capacity constraint. I also think software moats are irrelevant when the limiting factor in AI is actually time to power, not GPUs or code. Why would hyperscalers need to cut out third parties in the first place if this were true? Why would Microsoft sign a 5-year contract for $9.7 billion with prepayments for capacity it could not deliver internally on a timely basis? What I think is far more relevant than the income statement is the asymmetric nature of the asset base. IREN has >4.5 GW of secured power under contract and connected to the grid, yet needs only 460 MW to power the entire $3.4 billion ARR opportunity. This tells me the company is power-rich, not demand-poor. I also do not believe the earnings miss indicates a problem with the model, simply because $2.3 billion of the ARR is already contracted, GPU capex is ~95% funded at This Correction Is a Rare Entry Point The stock is no longer pricing in perfection; however, it does continue to price in some level of confidence in execution. I'm being asked to assume that the company's management is able to execute on a small fraction of the company's secured power and generate high-margin AI revenue in a predictable timeframe. This is not necessarily an unreasonable assumption; however, it is no longer one the market makes on faith. What makes the valuation reasonable is the required level of utilization compared to available capacity. However, what makes it precarious is the timeframe in which to prove out the level of utilization in reported results. What I Am Watching From Here Going forward, IREN needs to be viewed through a smaller set of variables. The first is the clear progression towards the $500 million AI ARR run rate goal that IREN expects in early 2026. This is the point at which AI revenue is large enough that it materially changes the income statement and reduces IREN’s reliance on mining cash flows. I am also watching the pace at which IREN converts the remaining secured capacity into contracts. As a company that has over 4.0 GW of power uncontracted beyond the CY26 plan, they don’t need new land or new work on the grid. IREN just needs new customer contracts and GPU availability. This is a very different risk profile. IREN Limited 2026 Q2 However, a delay in commissioning or utilization would be a bad sign. The impact of a delay in revenue growth will be less significant if contracted ARR continues to grow. Bottom Line I view IREN as a transition asset in a space where the fundamentals are well ahead of the company's earnings. The market was selling the company's revenue story while ignoring the company's capacity math. This is no longer a stock to buy based on a momentum trade. It's a stock to buy based on execution.