hodler

2 Jun 2026, 10:22

Strategy: Why Buying Bonds Instead Of Bitcoin Is Actually Bullish

Summary Strategy is optimizing its balance sheet by retiring $1.5 billion in convertible notes at a discount, reducing dilution risk and future liabilities. Recent bond purchases by MSTR reflect prudent liability management, not a shift away from Bitcoin accumulation. STRC, the company's Bitcoin-backed digital credit, has crossed $10 billion outstanding in nine months, with strong institutional and retail adoption and over $693 million in dividends paid. MSTR’s investment thesis centers on growing BTC per share, now at 12.6% YTD, outweighing non-cash net losses from Bitcoin price volatility. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Dorine Cherop as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more » The Shift Toward Bond Purchases Strategy Inc ( MSTR ) is down nearly 7% in the past five days, with most people exiting because of the company’s recent shift from Bitcoin accumulation to bond purchases. Sentiments have deteriorated further after the latest filing confirmed that Strategy sold BTC last week—the first dump since late 2022. However, players selling now likely don’t fully understand what executive chairman and co-founder Michael J. Saylor is actually building. First and foremost, you’ll acknowledge that Strategy’s capital structure has grown really complex in the past two years. There are at-the-market equity programs, convertible notes, preferred instruments, and a digital credit product that has dominated the stock world in less than 12 months. One headline, “We bought bonds, not Bitcoin,” can appear alarming when it comes from a firm moving across multiple levers simultaneously. Is Strategy abandoning its Bitcoin playbook? Not at all. What's happening now is simple balance sheet management. Strategy's Q1 earnings, published on May 5, indicated that the firm negotiated the retirement of $1.5 billion in convertible notes for roughly $1.38 billion. That meant repurchasing its own debt at a discount and below par. As focus remained on the debt cleanup, Michael Saylor confirmed, on May 24, that Strategy had spent the previous week buying bonds rather than Bitcoin. That signals plans to work through the existing liability restructuring rather than increasing its BTC stack. Screenshot of Saylor's post on X (X (Twitter)) Strategy is clearing the debt it has incurred during its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation phase to create a cleaner balance sheet before progressing with the purchases. Michael Saylor added that “the BitVac is charging” to indicate the buying engine remains on and is being reloaded. Convertible notes are a headache for companies like Strategy. Noteholders can convert debt into MSTR equity when Bitcoin prices rise. That dilutes existing shareholders. Now, removing those notes at a discount is a genuine win for Strategy. Such a move reduces future dilution risk, shrinks outstanding liabilities, and frees up the balance sheet for the upcoming accumulation cycle. The market might have read the bond over Bitcoin move as bearish. It’s the opposite. Strategy’s mNAV and What It Means for Buyers Understanding the market NAV multiple (mNAV) is vital before you seize any position in MSTR. You get it by dividing Strategy’s enterprise value by its BTC dollar value. Data shows Strategy has a Bitcoin NAV of around $63 billion against a $55.8 billion market cap and $75.3 billion enterprise value. That places the mNAV at 0.87x. That’s a rare setup, as it shows the market is pricing MSTR below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. For context, the ratio peaked in late 2024 at 3.89x when optimism about crypto treasury companies was at its highest. So, what about Strategy’s current status? The current mNAV below 1.0x means MSTR is just as attractive as simply holding BTC directly. There are no additional perks for people seeking leveraged Bitcoin exposure through this publicly traded equity vehicle. The approach is to buy low and sell high. Anything below 1.5 mNAV is a reasonable entry for buyers. Let’s walk through the math. A potential Bitcoin rebound from its current levels to all-time highs of around $126,000 would see Strategy’s mNAV exploding to exceed 3.0x. BTCUSD Daily Chart (TradingView) That would trigger a 4.6x rally in MSTR equity. At today’s $159 per share, such a scenario puts Strategy’s stock at roughly $730. That isn’t a price target. It’s a case that might play out if two things that have previously happened surface again: BTC price hitting a new all-time high and investors returning to pricing Strategy at a premium to its holdings. About Q1 Earnings The early May financial report revealed some interesting figures. Strategy announced a $12.8 billion net loss and a $14.5 billion operating loss. These were almost entirely from Bitcoin holdings. That means they reflected where BTC was priced at the end of Q1 2026, not actual funds leaving the company. Paper losses magnify when Bitcoin falls. And vice versa. Neither figure can tell much about how the business is actually running. Zoom out, and the picture is different. Revenue increased by nearly 12% YoY to $124.3 million in Q1. Strategy closed the quarter with $2.21 billion in cash on hand. It raised $11.7 billion in capital as of March 31 through MSTR equity offerings and STRC sales. Furthermore, BTC Yield, which the company uses to gauge how much BTC is accruing per diluted share, stood at 9.4% in Q1, and the recent filing shows it has since jumped to 12.6% YTD. That last figure matters more than the $12.8 billion net loss. Strategy’s whole equity thesis depends on growing BTC per share over time and not on generating software revenue or strong quarterly results in the traditional sense. A 12.6% Bitcoin yield YTD confirms the company’s theory is intact. Bond Purchases Likely Won’t Last Investors naturally wonder whether Strategy will shift from weekly Bitcoin accumulation to bond buying, especially now that it has started selling BTC . I don't think so. The debt cleanup remains event-specific. The company has already revealed plans for a further $14 billion Bitcoin purchase to attain its 1 million BTC target. The latest bond purchase was only a precondition for that. Not a pivot away. Once Michael Saylor and his team rationalize the liability stack, the ATM machinery that raised more than $11 billion in the first quarter alone indicates continued Bitcoin buys. Nonetheless, sustained weekly bond purchases rather than BTC would be a concern worth your attention. For now, a one-week shift isn’t a signal. The STRC Angle That You Might Be Missing While attention remains on bond buybacks, STRC is currently the most interesting story for Strategy investors. The digital credit has grown to surpass $10 billion outstanding nine months after debuting. 24-hour trading volume hit $375 million in Q1. Furthermore, the 3% in monthly volatility is lucrative considering Bitcoin, which has volatility nearing 40%, is the underlying asset. For context, STRC strips Bitcoin of its price swings and packages what remains into something that moves more like fixed-income instruments. The product has seen massive adoption. Roughly 3 million households currently have exposure to STRC, many holding through brokerage accounts and wealth management platforms rather than direct purchases. Corporate treasuries at companies like Anchorage and Strive are holding it. Leading banks Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi have launched BTC-adjacent products since STRC debuted. DeFi protocols have invested more than $270 million. And you know what? Strategy is at the foundation of that ecosystem. Screenshot from Strategy website (Strategy) Strategy has paid STRC dividends across 23 consecutive distributions. All on time, with total payouts exceeding $693 million since the equity program launched in early 2025. On June 8, at the annual conference, shareholders will vote on the proposed semi-monthly dividend payments. Remember, frequent distributions will tighten price stability. Understanding STRC is vital for anyone looking to enter the Bitcoin world without dealing with massive crypto volatility. STRC isn’t Bitcoin. But it’s built on it differently from conventional credit products. Risks Worth Your Attention Bitcoin price fluctuation is the primary risk for any MSTR holder. But dilution is the specific risk you should quantify carefully. Despite the latest buyback, Strategy still has a convertible debt of $6.7 billion, with notes maturing between 2028 and 2029. And the stock has to recover above $672 for a viable conversion into MSTR equity. Here’s the catch. The planned 1 million BTC target will demand massive additional equity and credit issuance. That will further test investor appetite for dilution. An mNAV below 1.0x means Strategy is selling equity at a minimal premium to its Bitcoin holding, as every MSTR issuance is barely accretive. That provides a little Bitcoin-per-share growth to cushion current shareholders. The flywheel will stall if the BTC price dips and mNAV remains compressed. And that’s what you should monitor, not the latest shift to bond purchase. What the Balance Sheet Shows Strategy holds 843,738 BTC, bought at a $75,700 average price per coin, and roughly $63.87 billion in total capital deployment. The firm sold at a profit last week when Bitcoin was trading at $77,135. The crypto has since plunged to $70,700 on Tuesday, June 2. Nonetheless, a coverage ratio, which is the firm’s measure of how well BTC over-collateralizes its liabilities, stays comfortably above the required threshold. Strategy funded its most recent Bitcoin purchase with MSTR common stocks and preferred sales. It made the latest 32 BTC sale to fund preferred stock distributions. The position is still massive (843,706 coins) as debt shrank. That shows a company maintaining its playbook with more precision. What’s Next from Here? Strategy investors will closely monitor Bitcoin price movements in the upcoming sessions. The firm’s Q1 net loss, though non-cash, demonstrated how quickly sentiments can shift when BTC dips. Meanwhile, the long-term opportunity lies in what Strategy is building around its Bitcoin holdings rather than the position itself. Michael Saylor believes STRC’s addressable market will hit trillions. It has crossed $10 billion in nine months, indicating real demand for the BTC-backed digital credit. With a 0.87x basic mNAV, MSTR is currently trading at a discount to its Bitcoin stash. That means Strategy is now at a lucrative entry point for maximized returns in a bull thesis. The recent bond purchase was only a maintenance move, which is necessary and ultimately beneficial for MSTR holders. Tracking BTC performance remains paramount as Mr. Saylor emphasizes that continued Bitcoin accumulation is Strategy's only playbook, with minor sales expected. The firm is roughly 156,200 BTC away from hitting its 1 million coins target. I am bullish on MSTR and recommend buying it at current levels. The 0.87x mNAV means you’ll be acquiring Bitcoin exposure through a public company below the value of its underlying holdings. That discount has historically closed fast when Bitcoin regains recovery momentum, and Strategy’s latest balance sheet cleanup strengthens that narrative. Provided the mNAV stays below 1.0x, and particularly under 1.5x, the risk-reward favors bulls. I will be watching this ratio closely, and any significant compression to or above 2.0x would prompt position reevaluation and sizing.

2 Jun 2026, 10:19

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Needs Channel Reclaim to Revive Bullish Structure

Ethereum is trading at a weak point after losing its rising channel and falling to fresh relative lows against QQQ. ETH needs to reclaim the $2,111 area to revive the recovery setup, while failure to do so keeps the breakdown active. Ethereum Ratio Hits 2021 Low as ETH Lags QQQ Ethereum has fallen to fresh relative lows against QQQ, according to a chart shared by Heisenberg on X. The chart tracks the ETHUSD to QQQ ratio, showing how Ethereum has performed against the Invesco QQQ Trust. The ratio has now reached levels not seen since January 2021. Ethereum Relative to QQQ Chart. Source: Heisenberg on X The chart shows ETH strongly outperforming QQQ during the 2021 cycle, when the ratio surged above the 13 area. However, Ethereum has lost relative strength since then. After the 2021 peak, the ratio formed several lower highs. It rebounded in 2022, 2024, and 2025, but each move failed below earlier cycle highs. The latest move shows the ratio falling toward 2.66, near the chart’s long term lower area. The orange note on the chart marks this as fresh lows not seen since January 2021. Heisenberg’s post suggests ETH may be reaching an area where relative value becomes harder to ignore. However, the chart does not yet show confirmation of a rebound. For now, Ethereum is still underperforming QQQ on this ratio chart. A recovery would need the ETHUSD to QQQ ratio to move away from the current low area and reclaim higher levels. Ethereum Price Loses Channel Support as Analyst Waits for Reclaim Setup Ethereum has broken below its rising daily channel, according to a chart shared by TraderJB on X. The analyst said he cut the trade after ETH moved below the channel. He added that the move could still turn into a deviation, but he would only re-enter if Ethereum reclaims the channel and holds above it. Ethereum Daily Chart. Source: TraderJB on X The chart shows ETH falling below the lower boundary of a rising channel that had guided price action since February. The breakdown pushed price under the June 2025 low near $2,111.89, which now acts as an important reclaim level. TraderJB said the channel break was clean. That means ETH needs to move back above the broken structure before the recovery setup becomes valid again. The projected trade path on the chart shows ETH reclaiming the channel, holding above the lower trendline, and then moving toward the upper part of the range. The marked upside target sits near $2,676.32. The chart also shows a risk area below the reclaim zone. The lower invalidation area sits around $1,954.87, which suggests the setup would weaken if ETH fails to recover and drops further. If Ethereum regains the channel, the first key test would be the broken $2,111.89 level. A hold above that area could support another move toward the mid-channel and then the upper resistance zone. However, if ETH stays below the channel, the breakdown remains active. In that case, the chart would continue to show weakness instead of a confirmed deviation.

2 Jun 2026, 10:17

What Bitfinex Traders Should Watch in June

Friday 5 June, US Non-Farm Payrolls (May) This opening salvo for the month will shape interest rate expectations heading into the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Soft employment data will likely accelerate rate-cut optimism, offering a tailwind for risk assets, while a resilient labour market points to a “higher-for-longer” stance. The critical question is whether market participants read any economic softness as a catalyst for easing or a warning of an impending recession. Wednesday 10 June, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (May) Arriving just before the FOMC’s rate verdict, this is the most consequential inflation data point of the month. Given its timing, it’s the primary driver of intraday BTC volatility through the first half of June. Thursday 11 June, US Producer Price Index (PPI) (May) Producer price data provides a direct read into future Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prints. Should both CPI and PPI signal the same inflationary direction, the combined impact on rate trajectory pricing will be significantly amplified. 16–17 June, FOMC Decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Decision at 2:00 PM ET, press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This is the pivotal macro event of the quarter. As a projection meeting, market focus will fall less on the immediate rate hold and more on the updated “dot plot,” which will fundamentally reposition the yield curve. This will also be the first dot plot under the new Fed chair. Wednesday 17 June, US Advance Retail Sales (May) This remains tentative on the Census Bureau calendar following the federal funding review. Investors should verify the schedule before incorporating the 17 June date into their strategies. Thursday 18 June, Triple Witching The quarterly expiration of US index futures and options has been brought forward due to the Juneteenth holiday. Expect a surge in equity volume toward the close, which often spills over into bitcoin via established correlation channels. Friday 19 June, Juneteenth Traditional US equity and bond markets are closed, but bitcoin remains operational. The drop in conventional market liquidity can exaggerate price swings on relatively thin volume. Thursday 25 June, US PCE Price Index (May) As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, this final major print will either validate or contest the policy path set during the prior week’s FOMC projections. Friday 26 June, Quarterly Bitcoin Options Expiry, 08:00 UTC (04:00 AM ET). This marks the most substantial settlement event of the quarter. Current estimates place notional value between $8 billion and $9 billion, with “max pain” situated near $77,500. Data points to a heavy three-to-one put-to-call skew on the CME. Friday 26 June, Quarterly bitcoin Options Expiry This marks the most substantial settlement event of the quarter. Current estimates place notional value at between $8 billion and $9 billion, with “max pain” situated near $77,500. Data suggests a heavy three-to-one put-to-call skew on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Critical On-Chain Metrics Long-Term Holder SOPR The current reading of 0.87 indicates that veteran holders are realising losses, a hallmark of late-stage corrections rather than broad distribution. Overall long-term holder supply is still reaching all-time highs (ATHs), which signals that profit-taking remains muted by historical standards. If price continues to move lower, this metric becomes more important to track alongside long-term holder (LTH) supply; together they paint the full picture of how significant profit-taking is in absolute terms. A reclaim of the 1.0 level would signal a return to profitability and the confidence required for a sustained move higher. A drop toward 0.80, conversely, would heighten capitulation risks. Short-term holder SOPR sitting between 0.92 and 0.96 confirms that recent entrants are exiting under duress, a classic sign of selling after round-tripping profits. Exchange Reserves Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dwindled to approximately 2.2 million BTC, marking a seven-year low. This structural supply contraction is underscored by whale addresses absorbing a record 270,000 BTC over the past month. The supply squeeze remains intact as long as reserves trend lower; any sustained rise in exchange balances during a price rally would serve as an early warning of a shift toward profit-taking. Long-Term Holder Supply Conviction remains high, with the long-term cohort commanding nearly 75 percent of circulating supply and 16.3 million BTC in total. We’re monitoring for a rollover in this data; a decline in long-term holdings amid stagnant or rising prices would signal the beginning of a hand-off to new buyers, typically marking the end of a local cycle. Derivatives and Order Flow Analysis Funding has persisted in negative territory for the majority of the move higher, suggesting perpetual contract traders are heavily tilted short (a positioning that has held even through net spot selling). A shift to strongly positive funding alongside price stalling at resistance signals exhaustion of the mid-timeframe uptrend, though that pressure has since eased. Following an open interest reset, funding is now moving; a push into overextended territory (above 15 to 20 percent in either direction) would signal trend exhaustion. The post What Bitfinex Traders Should Watch in June appeared first on Bitfinex blog .

2 Jun 2026, 10:15

Cango cuts long-term debt by 94% and launches EcoHash pilots as AI pivot tunes out non-cash losses

Cango Inc (NYSE: CANG) has released the unaudited results of its financial statement for the first quarter of 2026, and it reported a net loss of $261.1 million. However, most of these losses came as a result of non-cash charges. The company also reported that it has wiped out its balance-sheet debt in a single quarter while simultaneously supercharging its entry into the artificial intelligence compute market. Why is Cango’s $261 million loss not a problem? $151.8 million out of the total net loss came from changes in the fair value of bitcoin collateral receivables, a non-cash accounting charge driven by falling bitcoin prices, while a further $49 million reflects impairment losses on mining machines, also triggered by the same price decline. Together, these two items account for more than three-quarters of the reported loss. Bitcoin fell by 22.6% over the first quarter of 2026, and this was driven by delays in key crypto legislation, macroeconomic unease, and uncertainty over Federal Reserve leadership, among other factors. Miner revenue also suffered as a result, collapsing to a post-halving low of roughly $28 to $30 per petahash per second per day by early March. As of June 1, the Bitcoin hash price index is $0.034 for 1 TH/s of hashing power per day, according to The Block data. Public miners are also letting go of their Bitcoins in droves to fund pivots towards AI infrastructure, having collectively sold a record 32,000 BTC during the quarter. Cango recorded $102.0 million in total revenue, with $98.4 million coming from bitcoin mining. The company mined 1,266 bitcoin over the quarter at a total operational hashrate of 37.01 EH/s, comprising 27.98 EH/s of self-mining and 9.02 EH/s of leased hashrate. Cost of revenue fell from $155.3 million in the prior quarter to $99.6 million, driven by lower electricity and hosting costs after the deliberate reduction in hashrate that accompanied the phase-out of older S19 series machines. How much does the debt reduction actually change Cango’s strategic position? Away from its headline loss, Cango reduced its long-term debt from $557.6 million to $30.6 million, a 94.5% reduction, by offloading roughly 4,451 BTC, approximately 60% of its holdings at the time, to repay related-party debt. The company ended the quarter holding 1,026 bitcoin in reserve alongside $7.2 million in cash, down from $41.2 million at year-end 2025. According to Cango’s April 2026 operational update, the company’s average cash cost per bitcoin declined further to $68,061 in April from $76,928 in Q1, a 9% sequential reduction that management attributes to fleet optimization and the ongoing transition from legacy S19 hardware to more efficient S21 series miners. Cango’s Bitcoin reserves rose to 1,057 BTC by the end of April. At 31.58 EH/s, the total operational hashrate was lower than Q1 as the fleet transition continued, but the margin profile improved. Chief Financial Officer Simon Tang stated, “Despite a challenging quarter affected by industry adjustments and non-cash impacts, we made meaningful progress in improving our cost structure and strengthening our balance sheet. We reduced long-term debt and achieved continued declines in mining cash costs through disciplined execution.” How far along is Cango’s AI pivot? During the first quarter, Cango launched EcoHash that built around modular, containerized GPU compute units targeting the AI inference and high-performance computing market. According to Cango, pilot deployments are underway, with the roadmap beginning at GPU leasing and scaling, the company says, toward a global AI compute network. In April, the launch was followed by the completion of a $65 million strategic investment and a $10 million convertible note, indicating external capital is being lined up to fund the expansion. Cango’s CEO, Paul Yu, stated, “By leveraging our global energy network and operational expertise, we are well-positioned to enhance efficiency, capture emerging AI compute opportunities, and drive sustainable long-term value.” While the debt is gone, the work continues for Cango. The company recorded an adjusted EBITDA loss of $154.1 million, which, when compared with the $1.7 million loss it recorded in the same period of 2025, highlights the grounds the business needs to recover.

2 Jun 2026, 10:15

XRP Ledger Payments Volume Surges 10x, Spiking Above 1.5 Billion

XRP Ledger payment volume exploded nearly 10x in a single day, with more than 1.5 billion XRP transferred.

2 Jun 2026, 10:14

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hold $70K Support?

Bitcoin is retesting key support near the weekly Hull Moving Average while the daily chart shows a tight cluster between $73,000 and $71,300. A strong bounce could send BTC back toward $78,000, but a clean breakdown may open the door to $65,000. Bitcoin Price Retests Hull Moving Average as Analyst Compares Past Cycle Breakouts Bitcoin has retested its weekly Hull Moving Average after a recent breakout attempt, according to a chart shared by Super฿ro on X. The analyst compared the current BTC setup with similar weekly structures from 2014, 2018, and 2022, when Bitcoin also broke above the Hull Moving Average and later retested it. Bitcoin Weekly HMA Chart. Source: Super฿ro on X The chart shows four separate Bitcoin weekly cycle examples. Each panel marks the yellow Hull Moving Average, with breakout and retest areas highlighted. In the 2014 example, BTC broke above the Hull Moving Average and later retested the same area before continuing through a recovery structure. The chart also shows a second retest later in that cycle. The 2018 panel shows a faster move. Bitcoin broke above the Hull Moving Average and continued higher without a clear retest in the highlighted zone. The 2022 panel shows another breakout and retest structure. BTC moved above the Hull Moving Average, pulled back into the same area, and later continued higher. The 2026 panel shows Bitcoin now testing the weekly Hull Moving Average again. The chart places the HMA near $70,188, while BTC trades close to the same area. Super฿ro said the retest was discussed two weeks earlier and has now arrived. He said previous retests felt weak at the time, but historically appeared near periods when long term positioning improved. However, the current setup still needs confirmation. Bitcoin must hold near the Hull Moving Average and recover from the retest area before the comparison with earlier cycles becomes stronger. A clean break below the moving average would weaken the setup. In that case, the retest would look more like failed support than a repeat of the previous breakout structures. For now, the chart shows Bitcoin at a higher timeframe decision point. The next weekly candles will show whether the Hull Moving Average works as support again or whether sellers push BTC back below it. Bitcoin Price Tests Critical Support as BTC Faces $65K Breakdown Risk Bitcoin is testing a major support cluster between $73,000 and $71,300, according to a daily chart shared by Ali Charts on X. The analyst said a strong reaction from this area could push BTC back toward $78,000. However, a breakdown below the support cluster could expose the $65,000 area. Bitcoin Daily Chart. Source: Ali Charts on X The chart shows Bitcoin pulling back after failing to hold the upper part of its rising channel. BTC moved lower through several marked levels and is now sitting near the lower support zone. The main support cluster includes $74,020, $72,630, and $71,305. These levels sit close together, making the area important for the next move. Ali Charts said Bitcoin needs a strong reaction from the $73,000 to $71,300 range. If buyers defend this zone, BTC could attempt a recovery toward $77,887, which aligns with the analyst’s upside area near $78,000. Above that, the chart marks higher resistance near $82,811 and $89,071. Bitcoin would need to clear the lower resistance first before those levels become more relevant. On the downside, a clean break below $71,305 would weaken the support setup. In that case, the chart points to $68,589 first, followed by deeper support near $65,230. The chart also shows a lower level near $59,789, but BTC would need to lose the $65,000 area before that zone comes into focus. For now, Bitcoin is at a key daily support test. The next move depends on whether buyers defend the $73,000 to $71,300 cluster or sellers push BTC toward $65,000.